With the 2012-13 NBA season tipping off tonight, I figured I should probably put up some kind of projections. A lot of smart people spend a lot of time and energy working on things like this (see our own SCHOENE system), but I wanted to create a set of projections that are as “dumb” as possible while still generating reasonable results (a la Tangotiger’s Marcel projection system). So consider these the baseline that any credible projection system must beat, because only the bare minimum of information has gone into them:
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Seed Eastern Conference Avg W Avg L WPct
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1 Miami Heat 56.2 25.8 0.686
2 New York Knicks 49.7 32.3 0.606
3 Chicago Bulls 47.7 34.3 0.581
4 Atlanta Hawks 47.7 34.3 0.581
5 Indiana Pacers 46.0 36.0 0.561
6 Boston Celtics 46.0 36.0 0.560
7 Brooklyn Nets 40.9 41.1 0.499
8 Milwaukee Bucks 40.5 41.5 0.494
9 Orlando Magic 40.2 41.8 0.490
10 Philadelphia 76ers 39.9 42.1 0.487
11 Toronto Raptors 37.1 44.9 0.452
12 Detroit Pistons 31.7 50.3 0.386
13 Washington Wizards 31.0 51.0 0.378
14 Cleveland Cavaliers 28.3 53.7 0.345
15 Charlotte Bobcats 21.0 61.0 0.256
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Seed Western Conference Avg W Avg L WPct
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1 San Antonio Spurs 54.1 27.9 0.659
2 Los Angeles Lakers 50.0 32.0 0.609
3 Oklahoma City Thunder 49.8 32.2 0.608
4 Los Angeles Clippers 48.9 33.1 0.596
5 Denver Nuggets 46.4 35.6 0.566
6 Memphis Grizzlies 45.4 36.6 0.554
7 Minnesota Timberwolves 41.7 40.3 0.509
8 Houston Rockets 39.6 42.4 0.482
9 Utah Jazz 38.9 43.1 0.474
10 Dallas Mavericks 38.6 43.4 0.471
11 Portland Trail Blazers 36.6 45.4 0.446
12 Phoenix Suns 35.6 46.4 0.434
13 New Orleans Hornets 35.1 46.9 0.429
14 Golden State Warriors 35.0 47.0 0.427
15 Sacramento Kings 30.6 51.4 0.373
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How’d I generate these?
I started using Basketball-Reference’s Win Shares. Except, I tweaked Win Shares a bit — Justin Kubatko’s original formula doesn’t incorporate a usage-efficiency tradeoff, which I think is absolutely necessary for any rating system. Looking at the same Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus sample Daniel Myers used to build his Statistical Plus/Minus system, I found the tradeoff constant that best predicted ASPM (if you’re curious, for a 107.5 ORtg environment, that number is 1.11, lower than the 1.25 we’d originally believed).
From there, I calculated my tweaked Win Shares per 48 minutes for every player-season since 1973-74. I fed the most recent three years into Basketball-Reference’s Simple Projection System, generating expected WS48 numbers for 2013. Rookies were given the league-average WS48 of 0.0994.
For playing time, I used ESPN’s fantasy projections. If a team came in under 19,680 minutes (48 MPG * 5 players * 82 games), I assigned the remaining minutes to replacement level players, who have a 0.0233 WS48. If they came in over, I reduced everyone’s projected minutes, weighted by the difference between their projected MP and 3936 (82 games * 48 MP). This has the effect of reducing low-MP players’ minutes the most, which seems realistic enough.
From there, I could calculate idealized win totals for every team (I forced the sum of league wins to equal 1230, or 41 wins * 30 teams). Finally, I plugged the winning percentages implied from those win totals into the actual 2013 schedule, ran 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations, and averaged the win totals. Voila! Very, very dumb projections.
Here were the WS numbers for each individual player in the sample:
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Player Tm G MP WS
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Josh Smith ATL 78 2854.2 8.6
Louis Williams ATL 76 2710.1 9.5
Al Horford ATL 75 2628.0 9.1
Jeff Teague ATL 74 2449.4 5.7
Zaza Pachulia ATL 77 2230.6 5.1
Anthony Morrow ATL 68 1721.3 1.9
Devin Harris ATL 65 1603.1 3.4
Kyle Korver ATL 76 1359.9 3.7
A. Tolliver ATL 54 1042.2 1.1
D. Stevenson ATL 61 968.3 -0.4
Damion James ATL 7 113.0 0.0
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Player Tm G MP WS
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Brook Lopez BRK 82 2768.1 6.9
Deron Williams BRK 76 2672.7 7.9
Joe Johnson BRK 75 2518.8 6.8
Gerald Wallace BRK 72 2341.7 5.3
Kris Humphries BRK 70 1955.1 4.4
MarShon Brooks BRK 76 1838.1 1.2
Andray Blatche BRK 74 1555.4 1.6
C.J. Watson BRK 76 1524.1 3.1
Mirza Teletovic BRK 72 1394.5 2.7
Reggie Evans BRK 67 807.7 0.6
Josh Childress BRK 34 189.0 0.2
J. Stackhouse BRK 36 114.7 0.1
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Player Tm G MP WS
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Rajon Rondo BOS 75 2624.3 7.1
Paul Pierce BOS 77 2465.2 9.3
Jason Terry BOS 77 2292.3 4.8
Courtney Lee BOS 77 2188.6 2.7
Brandon Bass BOS 75 2060.3 5.2
Kevin Garnett BOS 71 1924.7 7.2
Jeff Green BOS 75 1816.1 3.2
Avery Bradley BOS 61 1037.9 1.4
Leandro Barbosa BOS 60 972.5 1.3
Jared Sullinger BOS 69 950.6 1.8
Chris Wilcox BOS 63 727.0 1.6
Darko Milicic BOS 39 424.0 0.1
Fab Melo BOS 48 196.6 0.4
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Player Tm G MP WS
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Kemba Walker CHA 80 2612.2 1.6
Ben Gordon CHA 75 2534.3 2.9
Kidd-Gilchrist CHA 77 2452.3 4.8
Ramon Sessions CHA 81 2167.1 4.6
Byron Mullens CHA 73 2134.5 0.7
Bismack Biyombo CHA 73 2055.5 0.0
Brendan Haywood CHA 78 1973.7 3.4
G. Henderson CHA 71 1913.7 1.7
Tyrus Thomas CHA 67 1106.6 0.6
Reggie Williams CHA 43 730.1 0.9
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Player Tm G MP WS
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Luol Deng CHI 70 2702.8 6.9
Joakim Noah CHI 72 2372.5 9.2
Carlos Boozer CHI 74 2281.1 8.2
Kirk Hinrich CHI 74 2188.7 2.1
Marco Belinelli CHI 80 2021.1 2.5
Rip Hamilton CHI 61 1738.0 2.8
Taj Gibson CHI 80 1671.5 4.5
Jimmy Butler CHI 72 1570.7 3.5
Nate Robinson CHI 61 1369.8 2.8
Marquis Teague CHI 68 1064.1 2.0
Derrick Rose CHI 27 699.7 3.1
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Player Tm G MP WS
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Kyrie Irving CLE 74 2321.6 6.9
T. Thompson CLE 78 2273.3 1.8
Alonzo Gee CLE 80 2255.1 2.2
Dion Waiters CLE 75 2151.8 4.1
A. Varejao CLE 71 1968.7 4.4
Tyler Zeller CLE 74 1794.7 3.5
C.J. Miles CLE 74 1483.7 2.0
Omri Casspi CLE 77 1354.8 1.1
Donald Sloan CLE 71 1272.5 -0.3
Daniel Gibson CLE 69 1226.2 1.0
K. Azubuike CLE 68 825.8 1.2
Samardo Samuels CLE 68 524.2 0.3
C. Eyenga CLE 52 227.7 -0.1
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Player Tm G MP WS
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Dirk Nowitzki DAL 79 2709.7 11.2
O.J. Mayo DAL 79 2686.0 4.6
Darren Collison DAL 76 2568.8 4.4
Shawn Marion DAL 74 2220.0 4.2
Elton Brand DAL 71 2059.0 6.0
Chris Kaman DAL 64 1836.8 1.7
Vince Carter DAL 69 1656.0 3.2
R. Beaubois DAL 62 1370.2 2.5
Replacement Lvl DAL 2573.5 0.8
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Player Tm G MP WS
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Ty Lawson DEN 76 2793.5 8.7
Andre Iguodala DEN 73 2675.4 7.1
D. Gallinari DEN 67 2206.0 5.5
JaVale McGee DEN 75 2079.6 4.7
Kenneth Faried DEN 70 2059.6 8.0
Andre Miller DEN 80 1994.4 4.1
Wilson Chandler DEN 63 1700.8 2.0
Corey Brewer DEN 71 1548.0 1.6
Timofey Mozgov DEN 59 970.8 1.1
Kosta Koufos DEN 57 846.0 1.8
A. Randolph DEN 50 805.9 1.5
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Player Tm G MP WS
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Brandon Knight DET 82 2785.6 2.2
Greg Monroe DET 82 2776.8 8.9
Tayshaun Prince DET 79 2292.7 2.5
Rodney Stuckey DET 71 2070.3 5.3
Jonas Jerebko DET 80 1845.5 3.5
Andre Drummond DET 72 1517.3 3.0
Jason Maxiell DET 76 1324.1 1.0
Corey Maggette DET 66 1268.7 2.6
Austin Daye DET 73 1198.3 0.6
Will Bynum DET 60 896.6 0.8
C. Villanueva DET 55 639.6 1.2
Jonny Flynn DET 43 627.9 0.0
T. Williams DET 35 436.6 0.1
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Player Tm G MP WS
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David Lee GSW 74 2524.5 6.5
Klay Thompson GSW 81 2417.2 3.1
R. Jefferson GSW 81 1825.3 2.7
Brandon Rush GSW 73 1800.9 2.1
Harrison Barnes GSW 76 1740.3 3.3
Jarrett Jack GSW 73 1681.4 3.5
Andrew Bogut GSW 57 1638.8 3.6
Stephen Curry GSW 51 1451.0 3.9
Carl Landry GSW 56 1249.5 3.1
Charles Jenkins GSW 71 1075.8 0.8
Festus Ezeli GSW 72 852.6 1.6
Andris Biedrins GSW 58 838.8 0.6
Jeremy Tyler GSW 69 583.9 0.2
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Player Tm G MP WS
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James Harden HOU 77 2595.6 10.2
Omer Asik HOU 81 2323.1 4.6
Jeremy Lin HOU 70 2288.7 6.9
C. Parsons HOU 78 2015.5 2.9
Royce White HOU 75 1898.2 3.6
P. Patterson HOU 75 1819.1 2.1
Carlos Delfino HOU 61 1697.1 2.3
Terrence Jones HOU 73 1264.9 2.4
Toney Douglas HOU 63 1055.9 1.1
D. Motiejunas HOU 71 962.5 1.8
S. Livingston HOU 58 753.5 0.8
Daequan Cook HOU 52 653.6 0.7
Marcus Morris HOU 57 352.4 0.1
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Player Tm G MP WS
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Paul George IND 78 2503.8 6.3
Danny Granger IND 75 2482.5 7.6
Roy Hibbert IND 81 2478.6 6.4
George Hill IND 76 2257.2 5.9
David West IND 74 2183.0 6.4
D.J. Augustin IND 79 2093.5 2.9
Gerald Green IND 73 1620.6 2.6
Ian Mahinmi IND 70 1337.0 3.4
T. Hansbrough IND 61 1323.7 3.3
Sam Young IND 53 816.2 0.9
Replacement Lvl IND 583.9 0.2
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Player Tm G MP WS
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Blake Griffin LAC 78 2754.2 10.5
Chris Paul LAC 76 2591.1 13.7
DeAndre Jordan LAC 79 1894.2 3.8
Jamal Crawford LAC 75 1881.3 3.4
C. Billups LAC 66 1708.9 5.6
Caron Butler LAC 67 1689.7 1.8
Grant Hill LAC 72 1487.5 1.8
Lamar Odom LAC 66 1467.6 3.2
Matt Barnes LAC 63 1080.3 2.6
Ryan Hollins LAC 70 974.7 0.5
Eric Bledsoe LAC 65 820.5 0.3
Q. Richardson LAC 61 819.1 0.8
Ronny Turiaf LAC 53 511.0 0.8
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Player Tm G MP WS
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Kobe Bryant LAL 76 2682.8 9.8
Pau Gasol LAL 74 2619.6 10.4
Steve Nash LAL 76 2386.4 7.6
Dwight Howard LAL 64 2208.0 9.7
M. World Peace LAL 78 2098.2 2.5
Antawn Jamison LAL 71 2023.5 3.4
Steve Blake LAL 73 1664.4 0.6
Jodie Meeks LAL 67 1608.0 2.9
Jordan Hill LAL 72 1346.4 2.4
Earl Clark LAL 45 508.5 0.2
Douglas-Roberts LAL 21 480.9 0.5
Replacement Lvl LAL 53.3 0.0
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Player Tm G MP WS
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Rudy Gay MEM 76 2888.0 7.2
Marc Gasol MEM 80 2864.0 8.5
Mike Conley MEM 80 2832.0 6.7
Zach Randolph MEM 71 2335.9 8.1
Tony Allen MEM 72 2073.6 5.2
Jerryd Bayless MEM 66 1775.4 3.7
M. Speights MEM 70 1449.0 2.8
Darrell Arthur MEM 53 1155.4 2.4
Replacement Lvl MEM 2306.7 0.7
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Player Tm G MP WS
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LeBron James MIA 77 2783.4 17.1
Chris Bosh MIA 75 2511.4 9.0
Dwyane Wade MIA 75 2478.4 12.3
Mario Chalmers MIA 76 2057.2 3.6
Ray Allen MIA 76 1840.0 5.1
Udonis Haslem MIA 75 1522.1 2.6
Shane Battier MIA 74 1415.2 1.7
Norris Cole MIA 81 1399.1 0.3
Rashard Lewis MIA 69 1293.2 1.3
Joel Anthony MIA 75 1250.0 1.4
Mike Miller MIA 60 743.8 1.2
James Jones MIA 62 386.3 0.7
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Player Tm G MP WS
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B. Jennings MIL 79 2752.7 6.7
Monta Ellis MIL 75 2723.7 5.0
Ersan Ilyasova MIL 75 2324.2 7.5
S. Dalembert MIL 81 1854.1 3.5
John Henson MIL 75 1786.5 3.4
L. Mbah a Moute MIL 74 1776.5 3.1
Mike Dunleavy MIL 62 1612.6 3.9
Beno Udrih MIL 77 1576.4 2.8
Ekpe Udoh MIL 72 1556.3 1.3
Drew Gooden MIL 53 1299.5 3.3
Joel Przybilla MIL 30 417.5 0.1
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Player Tm G MP WS
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Kevin Love MIN 60 2256.0 10.4
Luke Ridnour MIN 76 2196.4 3.9
A. Kirilenko MIN 65 1956.5 4.3
Nikola Pekovic MIN 65 1917.5 5.3
D. Williams MIN 79 1896.0 2.4
Ricky Rubio MIN 50 1785.0 2.7
Chase Budinger MIN 75 1657.5 3.1
Jose Barea MIN 67 1587.9 2.7
Brandon Roy MIN 50 1520.0 3.6
Greg Stiemsma MIN 71 1128.9 2.8
Replacement Lvl MIN 1778.3 0.6
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Player Tm G MP WS
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Anthony Davis NOH 76 2470.0 4.7
Eric Gordon NOH 64 2310.4 5.6
Al-Farouq Aminu NOH 80 2272.0 1.1
Greivis Vasquez NOH 75 2235.0 2.5
Ryan Anderson NOH 70 2170.0 9.2
Austin Rivers NOH 72 1836.0 3.5
Robin Lopez NOH 67 1393.6 2.8
Hakim Warrick NOH 68 1162.8 2.2
Jason Smith NOH 63 1140.3 1.8
Xavier Henry NOH 59 997.1 0.3
Brad Miller NOH 36 633.6 1.2
Replacement Lvl NOH 1059.2 0.3
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Player Tm G MP WS
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A. Stoudemire NYK 76 2648.5 8.3
Carmelo Anthony NYK 74 2545.7 9.2
Raymond Felton NYK 79 2508.9 3.9
Tyson Chandler NYK 74 2360.7 8.8
J.R. Smith NYK 77 2051.9 4.9
Jason Kidd NYK 72 1826.1 3.4
Ronnie Brewer NYK 73 1602.3 3.1
Steve Novak NYK 78 1371.0 4.0
Marcus Camby NYK 69 1330.9 2.5
Iman Shumpert NYK 41 759.3 1.0
Kurt Thomas NYK 55 674.8 0.7
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Player Tm G MP WS
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Kevin Durant OKC 79 3088.9 15.0
R. Westbrook OKC 81 2851.2 10.5
Serge Ibaka OKC 77 2363.9 6.8
K. Perkins OKC 66 1768.8 1.2
Kevin Martin OKC 60 1734.0 5.5
Thabo Sefolosha OKC 72 1555.2 1.4
Nick Collison OKC 70 1463.0 2.4
Jeremy Lamb OKC 75 1462.5 2.8
Perry Jones OKC 73 1277.5 2.4
Eric Maynor OKC 58 875.8 0.9
Hasheem Thabeet OKC 64 646.4 0.7
Replacement Lvl OKC 592.8 0.2
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Player Tm G MP WS
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Arron Afflalo ORL 75 2677.0 5.6
Glen Davis ORL 74 2270.8 3.6
Nikola Vucevic ORL 77 2081.3 4.4
Al Harrington ORL 74 2071.2 3.6
Jameer Nelson ORL 69 2064.5 5.0
Hedo Turkoglu ORL 73 2063.9 3.3
Gustavo Ayon ORL 74 1917.7 4.5
J.J. Redick ORL 66 1851.9 4.9
Moe Harkless ORL 71 1487.7 2.9
Josh McRoberts ORL 67 1194.0 2.3
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Player Tm G MP WS
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Jrue Holiday PHI 82 2886.4 5.4
Evan Turner PHI 80 2592.0 3.1
Andrew Bynum PHI 71 2477.9 9.6
Thaddeus Young PHI 76 2181.2 6.4
J. Richardson PHI 75 2122.5 4.1
Spencer Hawes PHI 77 2032.8 4.1
Nick Young PHI 74 1924.0 2.5
Dorell Wright PHI 74 1805.6 3.1
Kwame Brown PHI 59 1303.9 1.5
Replacement Lvl PHI 353.7 0.1
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Player Tm G MP WS
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Goran Dragic PHO 78 2691.1 6.3
Marcin Gortat PHO 80 2516.5 7.8
Luis Scola PHO 76 2307.1 4.7
Jared Dudley PHO 80 2298.8 4.9
Michael Beasley PHO 68 1938.7 2.2
Channing Frye PHO 77 1797.2 3.1
Wesley Johnson PHO 79 1681.0 0.1
Shannon Brown PHO 77 1487.1 2.1
Markieff Morris PHO 78 1434.5 1.7
K. Marshall PHO 70 832.6 1.6
Jermaine O'Neal PHO 47 695.2 1.1
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Player Tm G MP WS
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L. Aldridge POR 77 2887.5 10.3
Wesley Matthews POR 81 2786.4 5.7
Damian Lillard POR 77 2440.9 4.6
Nicolas Batum POR 73 2350.6 5.7
J.J. Hickson POR 75 2032.5 2.5
Meyers Leonard POR 75 1537.5 2.9
Nolan Smith POR 64 1363.2 -0.1
Jared Jeffries POR 64 1248.0 1.2
Elliot Williams POR 59 896.8 1.9
Craig Smith POR 51 612.0 1.2
Replacement Lvl POR 1524.6 0.5
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Player Tm G MP WS
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Tony Parker SAS 76 2427.0 8.8
Kawhi Leonard SAS 78 2295.5 6.6
Tim Duncan SAS 76 2091.5 7.8
Danny Green SAS 72 1735.1 4.3
Boris Diaw SAS 80 1720.6 1.4
DeJuan Blair SAS 79 1714.8 4.8
Manu Ginobili SAS 65 1682.5 7.6
Gary Neal SAS 74 1620.3 3.1
Stephen Jackson SAS 67 1593.5 1.5
Tiago Splitter SAS 74 1501.5 5.3
Matt Bonner SAS 65 1297.7 2.8
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Player Tm G MP WS
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D. Cousins SAC 80 2438.3 4.8
Isaiah Thomas SAC 80 2253.4 5.5
Tyreke Evans SAC 72 2199.8 3.1
Marcus Thornton SAC 73 2112.3 4.5
Jason Thompson SAC 75 1649.6 2.8
Thomas Robinson SAC 78 1595.9 3.0
John Salmons SAC 71 1455.1 1.3
James Johnson SAC 74 1303.1 1.7
Aaron Brooks SAC 77 1265.0 2.0
Jimmer Fredette SAC 78 1019.0 0.4
Chuck Hayes SAC 74 1012.3 1.1
Travis Outlaw SAC 62 849.1 0.0
F. Garcia SAC 58 526.9 0.5
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Player Tm G MP WS
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DeMar DeRozan TOR 81 2432.8 3.1
Landry Fields TOR 82 2358.9 3.5
Andrea Bargnani TOR 72 2353.8 4.3
Kyle Lowry TOR 75 2303.4 6.8
Terrence Ross TOR 77 2051.3 4.0
J. Valanciunas TOR 75 1936.5 3.8
Ed Davis TOR 81 1766.4 3.4
Amir Johnson TOR 74 1600.5 3.6
Jose Calderon TOR 68 1556.0 3.4
Linas Kleiza TOR 71 1320.4 1.2
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Player Tm G MP WS
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Al Jefferson UTA 75 2493.4 7.8
Paul Millsap UTA 78 2453.5 8.3
Gordon Hayward UTA 77 2436.0 4.3
Mo Williams UTA 69 2216.5 3.7
Derrick Favors UTA 77 1947.1 3.8
Marvin Williams UTA 68 1792.7 4.1
Randy Foye UTA 70 1682.6 2.4
Earl Watson UTA 62 1252.6 0.1
Enes Kanter UTA 78 1073.3 1.9
DeMarre Carroll UTA 58 998.4 1.0
Raja Bell UTA 38 911.2 0.3
Jeremy Evans UTA 59 422.7 1.2
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Player Tm G MP WS
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Trevor Ariza WAS 73 2238.9 2.6
John Wall WAS 66 2230.8 3.7
Bradley Beal WAS 77 2051.4 4.0
Jordan Crawford WAS 77 2025.6 1.8
Nene Hilario WAS 70 1854.4 6.0
Kevin Seraphin WAS 77 1827.9 2.6
Emeka Okafor WAS 70 1784.1 3.6
Jan Vesely WAS 74 1515.6 1.7
Trevor Booker WAS 70 1510.5 2.9
Chris Singleton WAS 80 1300.6 0.5
Martell Webster WAS 52 945.9 1.0
Cartier Martin WAS 52 394.2 0.5
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LeBron James is predicted to beat out Kevin Durant for MVP, according to these Win Shares at least.
So, there you go… The “dumbest” possible projections for the 2012-13 season. Let’s see how accurate they end up being!
