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October 30, 2012, 03:06 PM ET
The “Dumbest” 2013 Projections You’ll Ever See

by Neil Paine

With the 2012-13 NBA season tipping off tonight, I figured I should probably put up some kind of projections. A lot of smart people spend a lot of time and energy working on things like this (see our own SCHOENE system), but I wanted to create a set of projections that are as “dumb” as possible while still generating reasonable results (a la Tangotiger’s Marcel projection system). So consider these the baseline that any credible projection system must beat, because only the bare minimum of information has gone into them:

-----------------------------------------------------
Seed	Eastern Conference	Avg W	Avg L	WPct
-----------------------------------------------------
1	Miami Heat		56.2	25.8	0.686
2	New York Knicks		49.7	32.3	0.606
3	Chicago Bulls		47.7	34.3	0.581
4	Atlanta Hawks		47.7	34.3	0.581
5	Indiana Pacers		46.0	36.0	0.561
6	Boston Celtics		46.0	36.0	0.560
7	Brooklyn Nets		40.9	41.1	0.499
8	Milwaukee Bucks		40.5	41.5	0.494
9	Orlando Magic		40.2	41.8	0.490
10	Philadelphia 76ers	39.9	42.1	0.487
11	Toronto Raptors		37.1	44.9	0.452
12	Detroit Pistons		31.7	50.3	0.386
13	Washington Wizards	31.0	51.0	0.378
14	Cleveland Cavaliers	28.3	53.7	0.345
15	Charlotte Bobcats	21.0	61.0	0.256
-----------------------------------------------------
Seed	Western Conference	Avg W	Avg L	WPct
-----------------------------------------------------
1	San Antonio Spurs	54.1	27.9	0.659
2	Los Angeles Lakers	50.0	32.0	0.609
3	Oklahoma City Thunder	49.8	32.2	0.608
4	Los Angeles Clippers	48.9	33.1	0.596
5	Denver Nuggets		46.4	35.6	0.566
6	Memphis Grizzlies	45.4	36.6	0.554
7	Minnesota Timberwolves	41.7	40.3	0.509
8	Houston Rockets		39.6	42.4	0.482
9	Utah Jazz		38.9	43.1	0.474
10	Dallas Mavericks	38.6	43.4	0.471
11	Portland Trail Blazers	36.6	45.4	0.446
12	Phoenix Suns		35.6	46.4	0.434
13	New Orleans Hornets	35.1	46.9	0.429
14	Golden State Warriors	35.0	47.0	0.427
15	Sacramento Kings	30.6	51.4	0.373
-----------------------------------------------------

How’d I generate these?

I started using Basketball-Reference’s Win Shares. Except, I tweaked Win Shares a bit — Justin Kubatko’s original formula doesn’t incorporate a usage-efficiency tradeoff, which I think is absolutely necessary for any rating system. Looking at the same Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus sample Daniel Myers used to build his Statistical Plus/Minus system, I found the tradeoff constant that best predicted ASPM (if you’re curious, for a 107.5 ORtg environment, that number is 1.11, lower than the 1.25 we’d originally believed).

From there, I calculated my tweaked Win Shares per 48 minutes for every player-season since 1973-74. I fed the most recent three years into Basketball-Reference’s Simple Projection System, generating expected WS48 numbers for 2013. Rookies were given the league-average WS48 of 0.0994.

For playing time, I used ESPN’s fantasy projections. If a team came in under 19,680 minutes (48 MPG * 5 players * 82 games), I assigned the remaining minutes to replacement level players, who have a 0.0233 WS48. If they came in over, I reduced everyone’s projected minutes, weighted by the difference between their projected MP and 3936 (82 games * 48 MP). This has the effect of reducing low-MP players’ minutes the most, which seems realistic enough.

From there, I could calculate idealized win totals for every team (I forced the sum of league wins to equal 1230, or 41 wins * 30 teams). Finally, I plugged the winning percentages implied from those win totals into the actual 2013 schedule, ran 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations, and averaged the win totals. Voila! Very, very dumb projections.

Here were the WS numbers for each individual player in the sample:

--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
Josh Smith	ATL	78	2854.2	8.6
Louis Williams	ATL	76	2710.1	9.5
Al Horford	ATL	75	2628.0	9.1
Jeff Teague	ATL	74	2449.4	5.7
Zaza Pachulia	ATL	77	2230.6	5.1
Anthony Morrow	ATL	68	1721.3	1.9
Devin Harris	ATL	65	1603.1	3.4
Kyle Korver	ATL	76	1359.9	3.7
A. Tolliver	ATL	54	1042.2	1.1
D. Stevenson	ATL	61	968.3	-0.4
Damion James	ATL	7	113.0	0.0
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
Brook Lopez	BRK	82	2768.1	6.9
Deron Williams	BRK	76	2672.7	7.9
Joe Johnson	BRK	75	2518.8	6.8
Gerald Wallace	BRK	72	2341.7	5.3
Kris Humphries	BRK	70	1955.1	4.4
MarShon Brooks	BRK	76	1838.1	1.2
Andray Blatche	BRK	74	1555.4	1.6
C.J. Watson	BRK	76	1524.1	3.1
Mirza Teletovic	BRK	72	1394.5	2.7
Reggie Evans	BRK	67	807.7	0.6
Josh Childress	BRK	34	189.0	0.2
J. Stackhouse	BRK	36	114.7	0.1
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
Rajon Rondo	BOS	75	2624.3	7.1
Paul Pierce	BOS	77	2465.2	9.3
Jason Terry	BOS	77	2292.3	4.8
Courtney Lee	BOS	77	2188.6	2.7
Brandon Bass	BOS	75	2060.3	5.2
Kevin Garnett	BOS	71	1924.7	7.2
Jeff Green	BOS	75	1816.1	3.2
Avery Bradley	BOS	61	1037.9	1.4
Leandro Barbosa	BOS	60	972.5	1.3
Jared Sullinger	BOS	69	950.6	1.8
Chris Wilcox	BOS	63	727.0	1.6
Darko Milicic	BOS	39	424.0	0.1
Fab Melo	BOS	48	196.6	0.4
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
Kemba Walker	CHA	80	2612.2	1.6
Ben Gordon	CHA	75	2534.3	2.9
Kidd-Gilchrist	CHA	77	2452.3	4.8
Ramon Sessions	CHA	81	2167.1	4.6
Byron Mullens	CHA	73	2134.5	0.7
Bismack Biyombo	CHA	73	2055.5	0.0
Brendan Haywood	CHA	78	1973.7	3.4
G. Henderson	CHA	71	1913.7	1.7
Tyrus Thomas	CHA	67	1106.6	0.6
Reggie Williams	CHA	43	730.1	0.9
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
Luol Deng	CHI	70	2702.8	6.9
Joakim Noah	CHI	72	2372.5	9.2
Carlos Boozer	CHI	74	2281.1	8.2
Kirk Hinrich	CHI	74	2188.7	2.1
Marco Belinelli	CHI	80	2021.1	2.5
Rip Hamilton	CHI	61	1738.0	2.8
Taj Gibson	CHI	80	1671.5	4.5
Jimmy Butler	CHI	72	1570.7	3.5
Nate Robinson	CHI	61	1369.8	2.8
Marquis Teague	CHI	68	1064.1	2.0
Derrick Rose	CHI	27	699.7	3.1
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
Kyrie Irving	CLE	74	2321.6	6.9
T. Thompson	CLE	78	2273.3	1.8
Alonzo Gee	CLE	80	2255.1	2.2
Dion Waiters	CLE	75	2151.8	4.1
A. Varejao	CLE	71	1968.7	4.4
Tyler Zeller	CLE	74	1794.7	3.5
C.J. Miles	CLE	74	1483.7	2.0
Omri Casspi	CLE	77	1354.8	1.1
Donald Sloan	CLE	71	1272.5	-0.3
Daniel Gibson	CLE	69	1226.2	1.0
K. Azubuike	CLE	68	825.8	1.2
Samardo Samuels	CLE	68	524.2	0.3
C. Eyenga	CLE	52	227.7	-0.1
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
Dirk Nowitzki	DAL	79	2709.7	11.2
O.J. Mayo	DAL	79	2686.0	4.6
Darren Collison	DAL	76	2568.8	4.4
Shawn Marion	DAL	74	2220.0	4.2
Elton Brand	DAL	71	2059.0	6.0
Chris Kaman	DAL	64	1836.8	1.7
Vince Carter	DAL	69	1656.0	3.2
R. Beaubois	DAL	62	1370.2	2.5
Replacement Lvl	DAL		2573.5	0.8
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
Ty Lawson	DEN	76	2793.5	8.7
Andre Iguodala	DEN	73	2675.4	7.1
D. Gallinari	DEN	67	2206.0	5.5
JaVale McGee	DEN	75	2079.6	4.7
Kenneth Faried	DEN	70	2059.6	8.0
Andre Miller	DEN	80	1994.4	4.1
Wilson Chandler	DEN	63	1700.8	2.0
Corey Brewer	DEN	71	1548.0	1.6
Timofey Mozgov	DEN	59	970.8	1.1
Kosta Koufos	DEN	57	846.0	1.8
A. Randolph	DEN	50	805.9	1.5
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
Brandon Knight	DET	82	2785.6	2.2
Greg Monroe	DET	82	2776.8	8.9
Tayshaun Prince	DET	79	2292.7	2.5
Rodney Stuckey	DET	71	2070.3	5.3
Jonas Jerebko	DET	80	1845.5	3.5
Andre Drummond	DET	72	1517.3	3.0
Jason Maxiell	DET	76	1324.1	1.0
Corey Maggette	DET	66	1268.7	2.6
Austin Daye	DET	73	1198.3	0.6
Will Bynum	DET	60	896.6	0.8
C. Villanueva	DET	55	639.6	1.2
Jonny Flynn	DET	43	627.9	0.0
T. Williams	DET	35	436.6	0.1
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
David Lee	GSW	74	2524.5	6.5
Klay Thompson	GSW	81	2417.2	3.1
R. Jefferson	GSW	81	1825.3	2.7
Brandon Rush	GSW	73	1800.9	2.1
Harrison Barnes	GSW	76	1740.3	3.3
Jarrett Jack	GSW	73	1681.4	3.5
Andrew Bogut	GSW	57	1638.8	3.6
Stephen Curry	GSW	51	1451.0	3.9
Carl Landry	GSW	56	1249.5	3.1
Charles Jenkins	GSW	71	1075.8	0.8
Festus Ezeli	GSW	72	852.6	1.6
Andris Biedrins	GSW	58	838.8	0.6
Jeremy Tyler	GSW	69	583.9	0.2
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
James Harden	HOU	77	2595.6	10.2
Omer Asik	HOU	81	2323.1	4.6
Jeremy Lin	HOU	70	2288.7	6.9
C. Parsons	HOU	78	2015.5	2.9
Royce White	HOU	75	1898.2	3.6
P. Patterson	HOU	75	1819.1	2.1
Carlos Delfino	HOU	61	1697.1	2.3
Terrence Jones	HOU	73	1264.9	2.4
Toney Douglas	HOU	63	1055.9	1.1
D. Motiejunas	HOU	71	962.5	1.8
S. Livingston	HOU	58	753.5	0.8
Daequan Cook	HOU	52	653.6	0.7
Marcus Morris	HOU	57	352.4	0.1
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
Paul George	IND	78	2503.8	6.3
Danny Granger	IND	75	2482.5	7.6
Roy Hibbert	IND	81	2478.6	6.4
George Hill	IND	76	2257.2	5.9
David West	IND	74	2183.0	6.4
D.J. Augustin	IND	79	2093.5	2.9
Gerald Green	IND	73	1620.6	2.6
Ian Mahinmi	IND	70	1337.0	3.4
T. Hansbrough	IND	61	1323.7	3.3
Sam Young	IND	53	816.2	0.9
Replacement Lvl	IND		583.9	0.2
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
Blake Griffin	LAC	78	2754.2	10.5
Chris Paul	LAC	76	2591.1	13.7
DeAndre Jordan	LAC	79	1894.2	3.8
Jamal Crawford	LAC	75	1881.3	3.4
C. Billups	LAC	66	1708.9	5.6
Caron Butler	LAC	67	1689.7	1.8
Grant Hill	LAC	72	1487.5	1.8
Lamar Odom	LAC	66	1467.6	3.2
Matt Barnes	LAC	63	1080.3	2.6
Ryan Hollins	LAC	70	974.7	0.5
Eric Bledsoe	LAC	65	820.5	0.3
Q. Richardson	LAC	61	819.1	0.8
Ronny Turiaf	LAC	53	511.0	0.8
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
Kobe Bryant	LAL	76	2682.8	9.8
Pau Gasol	LAL	74	2619.6	10.4
Steve Nash	LAL	76	2386.4	7.6
Dwight Howard	LAL	64	2208.0	9.7
M. World Peace	LAL	78	2098.2	2.5
Antawn Jamison	LAL	71	2023.5	3.4
Steve Blake	LAL	73	1664.4	0.6
Jodie Meeks	LAL	67	1608.0	2.9
Jordan Hill	LAL	72	1346.4	2.4
Earl Clark	LAL	45	508.5	0.2
Douglas-Roberts	LAL	21	480.9	0.5
Replacement Lvl	LAL		53.3	0.0
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
Rudy Gay	MEM	76	2888.0	7.2
Marc Gasol	MEM	80	2864.0	8.5
Mike Conley	MEM	80	2832.0	6.7
Zach Randolph	MEM	71	2335.9	8.1
Tony Allen	MEM	72	2073.6	5.2
Jerryd Bayless	MEM	66	1775.4	3.7
M. Speights	MEM	70	1449.0	2.8
Darrell Arthur	MEM	53	1155.4	2.4
Replacement Lvl	MEM		2306.7	0.7
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
LeBron James	MIA	77	2783.4	17.1
Chris Bosh	MIA	75	2511.4	9.0
Dwyane Wade	MIA	75	2478.4	12.3
Mario Chalmers	MIA	76	2057.2	3.6
Ray Allen	MIA	76	1840.0	5.1
Udonis Haslem	MIA	75	1522.1	2.6
Shane Battier	MIA	74	1415.2	1.7
Norris Cole	MIA	81	1399.1	0.3
Rashard Lewis	MIA	69	1293.2	1.3
Joel Anthony	MIA	75	1250.0	1.4
Mike Miller	MIA	60	743.8	1.2
James Jones	MIA	62	386.3	0.7
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
B. Jennings	MIL	79	2752.7	6.7
Monta Ellis	MIL	75	2723.7	5.0
Ersan Ilyasova	MIL	75	2324.2	7.5
S. Dalembert	MIL	81	1854.1	3.5
John Henson	MIL	75	1786.5	3.4
L. Mbah a Moute	MIL	74	1776.5	3.1
Mike Dunleavy	MIL	62	1612.6	3.9
Beno Udrih	MIL	77	1576.4	2.8
Ekpe Udoh	MIL	72	1556.3	1.3
Drew Gooden	MIL	53	1299.5	3.3
Joel Przybilla	MIL	30	417.5	0.1
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
Kevin Love	MIN	60	2256.0	10.4
Luke Ridnour	MIN	76	2196.4	3.9
A. Kirilenko	MIN	65	1956.5	4.3
Nikola Pekovic	MIN	65	1917.5	5.3
D. Williams	MIN	79	1896.0	2.4
Ricky Rubio	MIN	50	1785.0	2.7
Chase Budinger	MIN	75	1657.5	3.1
Jose Barea	MIN	67	1587.9	2.7
Brandon Roy	MIN	50	1520.0	3.6
Greg Stiemsma	MIN	71	1128.9	2.8
Replacement Lvl	MIN		1778.3	0.6
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
Anthony Davis	NOH	76	2470.0	4.7
Eric Gordon	NOH	64	2310.4	5.6
Al-Farouq Aminu	NOH	80	2272.0	1.1
Greivis Vasquez	NOH	75	2235.0	2.5
Ryan Anderson	NOH	70	2170.0	9.2
Austin Rivers	NOH	72	1836.0	3.5
Robin Lopez	NOH	67	1393.6	2.8
Hakim Warrick	NOH	68	1162.8	2.2
Jason Smith	NOH	63	1140.3	1.8
Xavier Henry	NOH	59	997.1	0.3
Brad Miller	NOH	36	633.6	1.2
Replacement Lvl	NOH		1059.2	0.3
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
A. Stoudemire	NYK	76	2648.5	8.3
Carmelo Anthony	NYK	74	2545.7	9.2
Raymond Felton	NYK	79	2508.9	3.9
Tyson Chandler	NYK	74	2360.7	8.8
J.R. Smith	NYK	77	2051.9	4.9
Jason Kidd	NYK	72	1826.1	3.4
Ronnie Brewer	NYK	73	1602.3	3.1
Steve Novak	NYK	78	1371.0	4.0
Marcus Camby	NYK	69	1330.9	2.5
Iman Shumpert	NYK	41	759.3	1.0
Kurt Thomas	NYK	55	674.8	0.7
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
Kevin Durant	OKC	79	3088.9	15.0
R. Westbrook	OKC	81	2851.2	10.5
Serge Ibaka	OKC	77	2363.9	6.8
K. Perkins	OKC	66	1768.8	1.2
Kevin Martin	OKC	60	1734.0	5.5
Thabo Sefolosha	OKC	72	1555.2	1.4
Nick Collison	OKC	70	1463.0	2.4
Jeremy Lamb	OKC	75	1462.5	2.8
Perry Jones	OKC	73	1277.5	2.4
Eric Maynor	OKC	58	875.8	0.9
Hasheem Thabeet	OKC	64	646.4	0.7
Replacement Lvl	OKC		592.8	0.2
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
Arron Afflalo	ORL	75	2677.0	5.6
Glen Davis	ORL	74	2270.8	3.6
Nikola Vucevic	ORL	77	2081.3	4.4
Al Harrington	ORL	74	2071.2	3.6
Jameer Nelson	ORL	69	2064.5	5.0
Hedo Turkoglu	ORL	73	2063.9	3.3
Gustavo Ayon	ORL	74	1917.7	4.5
J.J. Redick	ORL	66	1851.9	4.9
Moe Harkless	ORL	71	1487.7	2.9
Josh McRoberts	ORL	67	1194.0	2.3
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
Jrue Holiday	PHI	82	2886.4	5.4
Evan Turner	PHI	80	2592.0	3.1
Andrew Bynum	PHI	71	2477.9	9.6
Thaddeus Young	PHI	76	2181.2	6.4
J. Richardson	PHI	75	2122.5	4.1
Spencer Hawes	PHI	77	2032.8	4.1
Nick Young	PHI	74	1924.0	2.5
Dorell Wright	PHI	74	1805.6	3.1
Kwame Brown	PHI	59	1303.9	1.5
Replacement Lvl	PHI		353.7	0.1
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
Goran Dragic	PHO	78	2691.1	6.3
Marcin Gortat	PHO	80	2516.5	7.8
Luis Scola	PHO	76	2307.1	4.7
Jared Dudley	PHO	80	2298.8	4.9
Michael Beasley	PHO	68	1938.7	2.2
Channing Frye	PHO	77	1797.2	3.1
Wesley Johnson	PHO	79	1681.0	0.1
Shannon Brown	PHO	77	1487.1	2.1
Markieff Morris	PHO	78	1434.5	1.7
K. Marshall	PHO	70	832.6	1.6
Jermaine O'Neal	PHO	47	695.2	1.1
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
L. Aldridge	POR	77	2887.5	10.3
Wesley Matthews	POR	81	2786.4	5.7
Damian Lillard	POR	77	2440.9	4.6
Nicolas Batum	POR	73	2350.6	5.7
J.J. Hickson	POR	75	2032.5	2.5
Meyers Leonard	POR	75	1537.5	2.9
Nolan Smith	POR	64	1363.2	-0.1
Jared Jeffries	POR	64	1248.0	1.2
Elliot Williams	POR	59	896.8	1.9
Craig Smith	POR	51	612.0	1.2
Replacement Lvl	POR		1524.6	0.5
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
Tony Parker	SAS	76	2427.0	8.8
Kawhi Leonard	SAS	78	2295.5	6.6
Tim Duncan	SAS	76	2091.5	7.8
Danny Green	SAS	72	1735.1	4.3
Boris Diaw	SAS	80	1720.6	1.4
DeJuan Blair	SAS	79	1714.8	4.8
Manu Ginobili	SAS	65	1682.5	7.6
Gary Neal	SAS	74	1620.3	3.1
Stephen Jackson	SAS	67	1593.5	1.5
Tiago Splitter	SAS	74	1501.5	5.3
Matt Bonner	SAS	65	1297.7	2.8
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
D. Cousins	SAC	80	2438.3	4.8
Isaiah Thomas	SAC	80	2253.4	5.5
Tyreke Evans	SAC	72	2199.8	3.1
Marcus Thornton	SAC	73	2112.3	4.5
Jason Thompson	SAC	75	1649.6	2.8
Thomas Robinson	SAC	78	1595.9	3.0
John Salmons	SAC	71	1455.1	1.3
James Johnson	SAC	74	1303.1	1.7
Aaron Brooks	SAC	77	1265.0	2.0
Jimmer Fredette	SAC	78	1019.0	0.4
Chuck Hayes	SAC	74	1012.3	1.1
Travis Outlaw	SAC	62	849.1	0.0
F. Garcia	SAC	58	526.9	0.5
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
DeMar DeRozan	TOR	81	2432.8	3.1
Landry Fields	TOR	82	2358.9	3.5
Andrea Bargnani	TOR	72	2353.8	4.3
Kyle Lowry	TOR	75	2303.4	6.8
Terrence Ross	TOR	77	2051.3	4.0
J. Valanciunas	TOR	75	1936.5	3.8
Ed Davis	TOR	81	1766.4	3.4
Amir Johnson	TOR	74	1600.5	3.6
Jose Calderon	TOR	68	1556.0	3.4
Linas Kleiza	TOR	71	1320.4	1.2
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
Al Jefferson	UTA	75	2493.4	7.8
Paul Millsap	UTA	78	2453.5	8.3
Gordon Hayward	UTA	77	2436.0	4.3
Mo Williams	UTA	69	2216.5	3.7
Derrick Favors	UTA	77	1947.1	3.8
Marvin Williams	UTA	68	1792.7	4.1
Randy Foye	UTA	70	1682.6	2.4
Earl Watson	UTA	62	1252.6	0.1
Enes Kanter	UTA	78	1073.3	1.9
DeMarre Carroll	UTA	58	998.4	1.0
Raja Bell	UTA	38	911.2	0.3
Jeremy Evans	UTA	59	422.7	1.2
--------------------------------------------
Player		Tm	G	MP	WS
--------------------------------------------
Trevor Ariza	WAS	73	2238.9	2.6
John Wall	WAS	66	2230.8	3.7
Bradley Beal	WAS	77	2051.4	4.0
Jordan Crawford	WAS	77	2025.6	1.8
Nene Hilario	WAS	70	1854.4	6.0
Kevin Seraphin	WAS	77	1827.9	2.6
Emeka Okafor	WAS	70	1784.1	3.6
Jan Vesely	WAS	74	1515.6	1.7
Trevor Booker	WAS	70	1510.5	2.9
Chris Singleton	WAS	80	1300.6	0.5
Martell Webster	WAS	52	945.9	1.0
Cartier Martin	WAS	52	394.2	0.5
--------------------------------------------

LeBron James is predicted to beat out Kevin Durant for MVP, according to these Win Shares at least.

So, there you go… The “dumbest” possible projections for the 2012-13 season. Let’s see how accurate they end up being!

Email Neil at np@sports-reference.com. Follow him on Twitter at @Neil_Paine.

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