February 7, 2012, 09:44 AM ET 2012 APBRmetric All-Stars
by Neil Paine
This is a series I always traditionally did over at Basketball-Reference, but I’m bringing it over to Prospectus for 2012. The concept is simple: if voters only looked at various advanced stats, which players would make the All-Star teams?
To pick teams, I used the official positional designations from the 2012 ballot ; each team must have 4 guards, 4 forwards, and 2 centers, with room for 2 wildcards from any position to fill out the roster. The metrics of choice are: Win Shares , Adjusted Plus/Minus (in the form of Jeremias Engelmann’s RAPM), Statistical Plus/Minus , Player Efficiency Rating , and Alternate Win Score+ (AWS, the best linear-weights metric , adjusted for team & position and scaled where 100 = average). Unless otherwise noted, numbers are current through February 5, 2012. To qualify, players needed at least 512 minutes played.
Win Shares per 48 Minutes
***Eastern Conference*** ***Western Conference***
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Guards Guards
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Derrick Rose , CHI .252 Chris Paul , LAC .255
Louis Williams , PHI .207 Kobe Bryant , LAL .187
Paul George , IND .183 Steve Nash , PHO .169
Jodie Meeks , PHI .179 Kyle Lowry , HOU .167
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Forwards Forwards
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LeBron James , MIA .320 James Harden , OKC .254
Ryan Anderson , ORL .254 Kevin Love , MIN .249
Paul Pierce , BOS .201 L. Aldridge, POR .229
Thaddeus Young , PHI .195 Paul Millsap , UTA .225
Chris Bosh , MIA .185 Kevin Durant , OKC .222
Carlos Boozer , CHI .185 Nicolas Batum , POR .206
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Centers Centers
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Tyson Chandler , NYK .248 Andrew Bynum , LAL .184
Dwight Howard , ORL .194 Marc Gasol , MEM .181
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Adjusted Plus/Minus (thru 2/2/12)
***Eastern Conference*** ***Western Conference***
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Guards Guards
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Jrue Holiday , PHI +3.2 Chris Paul , LAC +5.7
Joe Johnson , ATL +2.7 Steve Nash , PHO +4.9
Landry Fields , NYK +2.7 Andre Miller , DEN +4.2
Derrick Rose , CHI +2.6 Mike Conley , MEM +4.1
Kyle Lowry , HOU +3.9
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Forwards Forwards
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Luol Deng , CHI +4.9 Dirk Nowitzki , DAL +6.0
LeBron James , MIA +4.8 Paul Millsap , UTA +4.6
Kevin Garnett , BOS +4.3 Gerald Wallace , POR +4.2
Thaddeus Young , PHI +4.2 L. Aldridge, POR +4.0
Ryan Anderson , ORL +4.1 Kevin Durant , OKC +3.7
Amir Johnson , TOR +3.8
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Centers Centers
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Dwight Howard , ORL +3.2 Nene, DEN +3.4
Roy Hibbert , IND +1.4 Marc Gasol , MEM +2.9
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Statistical Plus/Minus
***Eastern Conference*** ***Western Conference***
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Guards Guards
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Derrick Rose , CHI +6.7 Chris Paul , LAC +8.7
Paul George , IND +4.9 Kobe Bryant , LAL +6.2
B. Jennings, MIL +4.8 Kyle Lowry , HOU +6.2
Rajon Rondo , BOS +4.1 Ricky Rubio , MIN +5.3
Mario Chalmers , MIA +4.0 Mike Conley , MEM +4.1
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Forwards Forwards
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LeBron James , MIA +10.2 Kevin Durant , OKC +6.8
Ryan Anderson , ORL +6.2 Kevin Love , MIN +6.8
Paul Pierce , BOS +5.7 Paul Millsap , UTA +6.4
Andre Iguodala , PHI +4.9 James Harden , OKC +5.3
L. Aldridge, POR +4.3
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Centers Centers
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Dwight Howard , ORL +6.7 Marc Gasol , MEM +4.0
Tyson Chandler , NYK +4.3 Andrew Bynum , LAL +3.3
Greg Monroe , DET +3.9
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Alternate Win Score+
***Eastern Conference*** ***Western Conference***
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Guards Guards
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Derrick Rose , CHI 175 Chris Paul , LAC 205
Ray Allen , BOS 162 Steve Nash , PHO 174
Paul George , IND 155 Kobe Bryant , LAL 172
B. Jennings, MIL 152 Kyle Lowry , HOU 148
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Forwards Forwards
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LeBron James , MIA 241 Kevin Love , MIN 199
Ryan Anderson , ORL 201 Kevin Durant , OKC 195
Paul Pierce , BOS 175 Paul Millsap , UTA 187
Andre Iguodala , PHI 166 James Harden , OKC 174
L. Aldridge, POR 168
Nicolas Batum , POR 164
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Centers Centers
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Dwight Howard , ORL 178 Andrew Bynum , LAL 164
Tyson Chandler , NYK 176 Marcin Gortat , PHO 160
Greg Monroe , DET 167
Anderson Varejao , CLE 156
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Player Efficiency Rating
***Eastern Conference*** ***Western Conference***
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Guards Guards
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Derrick Rose , CHI 25.5 Chris Paul , LAC 25.9
Kyrie Irving , CLE 22.1 Kobe Bryant , LAL 25.7
Louis Williams , PHI 21.3 Steve Nash , PHO 23.1
B. Jennings, MIL 20.4 R. Westbrook, OKC 22.5
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Forwards Forwards
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LeBron James , MIA 32.7 Kevin Durant , OKC 26.8
Ryan Anderson , ORL 22.8 Kevin Love , MIN 25.5
Paul Pierce , BOS 21.6 Paul Millsap , UTA 25.1
Carmelo Anthony , NYK 20.4 L. Aldridge, POR 24.3
Chris Bosh , MIA 20.3 Blake Griffin , LAC 22.7
James Harden , OKC 22.2
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Centers Centers
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Dwight Howard , ORL 24.5 Andrew Bynum , LAL 22.2
Greg Monroe , DET 23.5 Al Jefferson , UTA 22.1
Tyson Chandler , NYK 20.3
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This year, the consensus (mentioned on at least 3 of the 5 teams) is:
***Eastern Conference*** ***Western Conference***
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Guards Guards
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Derrick Rose , CHI Chris Paul , LAC
B. Jennings, MIL Kobe Bryant , LAL
Paul George , IND Kyle Lowry , HOU
Steve Nash , PHO
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Forwards Forwards
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LeBron James , MIA Kevin Durant , OKC
Ryan Anderson , ORL L. Aldridge, POR
Paul Pierce , BOS Paul Millsap , UTA
James Harden , OKC
Kevin Love , MIN
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Centers Centers
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Dwight Howard , ORL Andrew Bynum , LAL
Tyson Chandler , NYK Marc Gasol , MEM
Greg Monroe , DET
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That fills 20 out of the 24 slots; all that’s left is to pick a guard and a forward from the East, and the final wildcard from each conference.
If you go with players mentioned twice, the East roster is completed with some combination of Chris Bosh and the Philly trio of Andre Iguodala , Lou Williams, and Thaddeus Young (FWIW, I’d go with Williams, Iguodala, & Young). In the West, Mike Conley & Nicolas Batum were each mentioned twice — and even though he’s not starting and Conley is, IMO Batum is having a stronger statistical season. So that means my recommended 2012 APBRmetric All-Star team would be:
***Eastern Conference*** ***Western Conference***
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Guards Guards
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Derrick Rose , CHI Chris Paul , LAC
B. Jennings, MIL Kobe Bryant , LAL
Paul George , IND Kyle Lowry , HOU
Louis Williams , PHI Steve Nash , PHO
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Forwards Forwards
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LeBron James , MIA Kevin Durant , OKC
Ryan Anderson , ORL L. Aldridge, POR
Paul Pierce , BOS Paul Millsap , UTA
Andre Iguodala , PHI James Harden , OKC
Thaddeus Young , PHI Kevin Love , MIN
Nicolas Batum , POR
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Centers Centers
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Dwight Howard , ORL Andrew Bynum , LAL
Tyson Chandler , NYK Marc Gasol , MEM
Greg Monroe , DET
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Email Neil at np@sports-reference.com . Follow him on Twitter at @Neil_Paine .
