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February 7, 2012, 09:44 AM ET
2012 APBRmetric All-Stars

by Neil Paine

This is a series I always traditionally did over at Basketball-Reference, but I’m bringing it over to Prospectus for 2012. The concept is simple: if voters only looked at various advanced stats, which players would make the All-Star teams?

To pick teams, I used the official positional designations from the 2012 ballot; each team must have 4 guards, 4 forwards, and 2 centers, with room for 2 wildcards from any position to fill out the roster. The metrics of choice are: Win Shares, Adjusted Plus/Minus (in the form of Jeremias Engelmann’s RAPM), Statistical Plus/Minus, Player Efficiency Rating, and Alternate Win Score+ (AWS, the best linear-weights metric, adjusted for team & position and scaled where 100 = average). Unless otherwise noted, numbers are current through February 5, 2012. To qualify, players needed at least 512 minutes played.

Win Shares per 48 Minutes

***Eastern Conference***   ***Western Conference***
-------------------------  -------------------------
Guards                     Guards
-------------------------  -------------------------
Derrick Rose, CHI    .252  Chris Paul, LAC      .255
Louis Williams, PHI  .207  Kobe Bryant, LAL     .187
Paul George, IND     .183  Steve Nash, PHO      .169
Jodie Meeks, PHI     .179  Kyle Lowry, HOU      .167
————————-  ————————-
Forwards                   Forwards
————————-  ————————-
LeBron James, MIA    .320  James Harden, OKC    .254
Ryan Anderson, ORL   .254  Kevin Love, MIN      .249
Paul Pierce, BOS     .201  L. Aldridge, POR     .229
Thaddeus Young, PHI  .195  Paul Millsap, UTA    .225
Chris Bosh, MIA      .185  Kevin Durant, OKC    .222
Carlos Boozer, CHI   .185  Nicolas Batum, POR   .206
————————-  ————————-
Centers                    Centers
————————-  ————————-
Tyson Chandler, NYK  .248  Andrew Bynum, LAL    .184
Dwight Howard, ORL   .194  Marc Gasol, MEM      .181
————————-  ————————-

Adjusted Plus/Minus (thru 2/2/12)

***Eastern Conference***   ***Western Conference***
-------------------------  -------------------------
Guards                     Guards
-------------------------  -------------------------
Jrue Holiday, PHI    +3.2  Chris Paul, LAC      +5.7
Joe Johnson, ATL     +2.7  Steve Nash, PHO      +4.9
Landry Fields, NYK   +2.7  Andre Miller, DEN    +4.2
Derrick Rose, CHI    +2.6  Mike Conley, MEM     +4.1
                           Kyle Lowry, HOU      +3.9
————————-  ————————-
Forwards                   Forwards
————————-  ————————-
Luol Deng, CHI       +4.9  Dirk Nowitzki, DAL   +6.0
LeBron James, MIA    +4.8  Paul Millsap, UTA    +4.6
Kevin Garnett, BOS   +4.3  Gerald Wallace, POR  +4.2
Thaddeus Young, PHI  +4.2  L. Aldridge, POR     +4.0
Ryan Anderson, ORL   +4.1  Kevin Durant, OKC    +3.7
Amir Johnson, TOR    +3.8
————————-  ————————-
Centers                    Centers
————————-  ————————-
Dwight Howard, ORL   +3.2  Nene, DEN            +3.4
Roy Hibbert, IND     +1.4  Marc Gasol, MEM      +2.9
————————-  ————————-

Statistical Plus/Minus

***Eastern Conference***   ***Western Conference***
-------------------------  -------------------------
Guards                     Guards
-------------------------  -------------------------
Derrick Rose, CHI    +6.7  Chris Paul, LAC      +8.7
Paul George, IND     +4.9  Kobe Bryant, LAL     +6.2
B. Jennings, MIL     +4.8  Kyle Lowry, HOU      +6.2
Rajon Rondo, BOS     +4.1  Ricky Rubio, MIN     +5.3
Mario Chalmers, MIA  +4.0  Mike Conley, MEM     +4.1
————————-  ————————-
Forwards                   Forwards
————————-  ————————-
LeBron James, MIA   +10.2  Kevin Durant, OKC    +6.8
Ryan Anderson, ORL   +6.2  Kevin Love, MIN      +6.8
Paul Pierce, BOS     +5.7  Paul Millsap, UTA    +6.4
Andre Iguodala, PHI  +4.9  James Harden, OKC    +5.3
                           L. Aldridge, POR     +4.3
————————-  ————————-
Centers                    Centers
————————-  ————————-
Dwight Howard, ORL   +6.7  Marc Gasol, MEM      +4.0
Tyson Chandler, NYK  +4.3  Andrew Bynum, LAL    +3.3
Greg Monroe, DET     +3.9
————————-  ————————-

Alternate Win Score+

***Eastern Conference***   ***Western Conference***
-------------------------  -------------------------
Guards                     Guards
-------------------------  -------------------------
Derrick Rose, CHI     175  Chris Paul, LAC       205
Ray Allen, BOS        162  Steve Nash, PHO       174
Paul George, IND      155  Kobe Bryant, LAL      172
B. Jennings, MIL      152  Kyle Lowry, HOU       148
————————-  ————————-
Forwards                   Forwards
————————-  ————————-
LeBron James, MIA     241  Kevin Love, MIN       199
Ryan Anderson, ORL    201  Kevin Durant, OKC     195
Paul Pierce, BOS      175  Paul Millsap, UTA     187
Andre Iguodala, PHI   166  James Harden, OKC     174
                           L. Aldridge, POR      168
                           Nicolas Batum, POR    164
————————-  ————————-
Centers                    Centers
————————-  ————————-
Dwight Howard, ORL    178  Andrew Bynum, LAL     164
Tyson Chandler, NYK   176  Marcin Gortat, PHO    160
Greg Monroe, DET      167
Anderson Varejao, CLE 156
————————-  ————————-

Player Efficiency Rating

***Eastern Conference***   ***Western Conference***
-------------------------  -------------------------
Guards                     Guards
-------------------------  -------------------------
Derrick Rose, CHI    25.5  Chris Paul, LAC      25.9
Kyrie Irving, CLE    22.1  Kobe Bryant, LAL     25.7
Louis Williams, PHI  21.3  Steve Nash, PHO      23.1
B. Jennings, MIL     20.4  R. Westbrook, OKC    22.5
————————-  ————————-
Forwards                   Forwards
————————-  ————————-
LeBron James, MIA    32.7  Kevin Durant, OKC    26.8
Ryan Anderson, ORL   22.8  Kevin Love, MIN      25.5
Paul Pierce, BOS     21.6  Paul Millsap, UTA    25.1
Carmelo Anthony, NYK 20.4  L. Aldridge, POR     24.3
Chris Bosh, MIA      20.3  Blake Griffin, LAC   22.7
                           James Harden, OKC    22.2
————————-  ————————-
Centers                    Centers
————————-  ————————-
Dwight Howard, ORL   24.5  Andrew Bynum, LAL    22.2
Greg Monroe, DET     23.5  Al Jefferson, UTA    22.1
Tyson Chandler, NYK  20.3
————————-  ————————-

This year, the consensus (mentioned on at least 3 of the 5 teams) is:

***Eastern Conference***   ***Western Conference***
-------------------------  -------------------------
Guards                     Guards
-------------------------  -------------------------
Derrick Rose, CHI          Chris Paul, LAC
B. Jennings, MIL           Kobe Bryant, LAL
Paul George, IND           Kyle Lowry, HOU
                           Steve Nash, PHO
————————-  ————————-
Forwards                   Forwards
————————-  ————————-
LeBron James, MIA          Kevin Durant, OKC
Ryan Anderson, ORL         L. Aldridge, POR
Paul Pierce, BOS           Paul Millsap, UTA
                           James Harden, OKC
                           Kevin Love, MIN
————————-  ————————-
Centers                    Centers
————————-  ————————-
Dwight Howard, ORL         Andrew Bynum, LAL
Tyson Chandler, NYK        Marc Gasol, MEM
Greg Monroe, DET
————————-  ————————-

That fills 20 out of the 24 slots; all that’s left is to pick a guard and a forward from the East, and the final wildcard from each conference.

If you go with players mentioned twice, the East roster is completed with some combination of Chris Bosh and the Philly trio of Andre Iguodala, Lou Williams, and Thaddeus Young (FWIW, I’d go with Williams, Iguodala, & Young). In the West, Mike Conley & Nicolas Batum were each mentioned twice — and even though he’s not starting and Conley is, IMO Batum is having a stronger statistical season. So that means my recommended 2012 APBRmetric All-Star team would be:

***Eastern Conference***   ***Western Conference***
-------------------------  -------------------------
Guards                     Guards
-------------------------  -------------------------
Derrick Rose, CHI          Chris Paul, LAC
B. Jennings, MIL           Kobe Bryant, LAL
Paul George, IND           Kyle Lowry, HOU
Louis Williams, PHI        Steve Nash, PHO
————————-  ————————-
Forwards                   Forwards
————————-  ————————-
LeBron James, MIA          Kevin Durant, OKC
Ryan Anderson, ORL         L. Aldridge, POR
Paul Pierce, BOS           Paul Millsap, UTA
Andre Iguodala, PHI        James Harden, OKC
Thaddeus Young, PHI        Kevin Love, MIN
                           Nicolas Batum, POR
————————-  ————————-
Centers                    Centers
————————-  ————————-
Dwight Howard, ORL         Andrew Bynum, LAL
Tyson Chandler, NYK        Marc Gasol, MEM
Greg Monroe, DET
————————-  ————————-

Email Neil at np@sports-reference.com. Follow him on Twitter at @Neil_Paine.

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