Using the in-season projection method combining current performance and SCHOENE described in today’s column, here’s a look at our projections for the end-of-season per-game leaderboards.
Player Tm PPG
LeBron James MIA 28.8 Kobe Bryant LAL 27.4 Kevin Durant OKC 26.7 Carmelo Anthony NYK 24.3 Dwyane Wade MIA 24.1 Blake Griffin LAC 22.5 Derrick Rose CHI 22.4 Kevin Love MIN 22.3 Monta Ellis GSW 22.1 LaMarcus Aldridge POR 21.8
Kobe Bryant came into Thursday (not reflected in these stats) with a lead of a point per game over LeBron James, but the expectation is he’ll fall al little bit off his current pace. So too may Kevin Love, who is currently fourth–though SCHOENE can’t account for the Ricky Rubio factor.
Player Tm RPG
Kevin Love MIN 14.6 Dwight Howard ORL 13.6 Andrew Bynum LAL 12.0 Blake Griffin LAC 11.2 David Lee GSW 10.4 Anderson Varejao CLE 9.9 Kris Humphries NJN 9.9 Marc Gasol MEM 9.8 Tyson Chandler NYK 9.7 Marcin Gortat PHX 9.5
This is Love’s and Dwight Howard‘s category to lose, though Andrew Bynum could make a run if he keeps playing 35 minutes a night.
Player Tm APG
Chris Paul LAC 10.1 Rajon Rondo BOS 9.8 Steve Nash PHX 9.7 Deron Williams NJN 9.1 Jose Calderon TOR 8.4 John Wall WAS 7.9 Ricky Rubio MIN 7.9 LeBron James MIA 7.7 Derrick Rose CHI 7.6 Kyle Lowry HOU 7.2
The most interesting names here are Rubio, who could easily finish higher with more minutes, and Kyle Lowry. Lowry was averaging 8.7 assists through Thursday after averaging just 6.7 in similar minutes last season, so this method is understandably a bit skeptical he can keep it up.
Player Tm SPG
Chris Paul LAC 2.6 Iman Shumpert NYK 2.4 Ricky Rubio MIN 2.2 Rajon Rondo BOS 2.1 Monta Ellis GSW 2.0 Jeff Teague ATL 2.0 Mike Conley MEM 1.9 Brandon Jennings MIL 1.9 Dwyane Wade MIA 1.8
The NBA added two world-class thieves this season in Rubio and New York’s Iman Shumpert. Rubio is probably the biggest threat to Chris Paul leading the league.
Player Tm BPG
JaVale McGee WAS 2.7 Dwight Howard ORL 2.5 DeAndre Jordan LAC 2.4 Serge Ibaka OKC 2.2 Andrew Bynum LAL 2.0 Andrew Bogut MIL 1.9 Marc Gasol MEM 1.9 Roy Hibbert IND 1.8 Tyrus Thomas CHA 1.8 Josh Smith ATL 1.7
DeAndre Jordan and JaVale McGee are both averaging three blocks a night thus far, but the conservative projection doesn’t see anyone finishing that high. Jordan in particular could come back to Earth, having averaged just 1.8 blocks per game as a starter last season.