Basketball Prospectus: Unfiltered Everything Else is Fluff.

January 20, 2012

Projected Leaderboards

Filed under: Uncategorized — Kevin Pelton @ 2:53 am

Using the in-season projection method combining current performance and SCHOENE described in today’s column, here’s a look at our projections for the end-of-season per-game leaderboards.

Player               Tm     PPG  
LeBron James        MIA    28.8
Kobe Bryant         LAL    27.4
Kevin Durant        OKC    26.7
Carmelo Anthony     NYK    24.3
Dwyane Wade         MIA    24.1
Blake Griffin       LAC    22.5
Derrick Rose        CHI    22.4
Kevin Love          MIN    22.3
Monta Ellis         GSW    22.1
LaMarcus Aldridge   POR    21.8

Kobe Bryant came into Thursday (not reflected in these stats) with a lead of a point per game over LeBron James, but the expectation is he’ll fall al little bit off his current pace. So too may Kevin Love, who is currently fourth–though SCHOENE can’t account for the Ricky Rubio factor.

Player               Tm     RPG 
Kevin Love          MIN    14.6
Dwight Howard       ORL    13.6
Andrew Bynum        LAL    12.0
Blake Griffin       LAC    11.2
David Lee           GSW    10.4
Anderson Varejao    CLE     9.9
Kris Humphries      NJN     9.9
Marc Gasol          MEM     9.8
Tyson Chandler      NYK     9.7
Marcin Gortat       PHX     9.5

This is Love’s and Dwight Howard‘s category to lose, though Andrew Bynum could make a run if he keeps playing 35 minutes a night.

Player               Tm    APG 
Chris Paul          LAC   10.1
Rajon Rondo         BOS    9.8
Steve Nash          PHX    9.7
Deron Williams      NJN    9.1
Jose Calderon       TOR    8.4
John Wall           WAS    7.9
Ricky Rubio         MIN    7.9
LeBron James        MIA    7.7
Derrick Rose        CHI    7.6
Kyle Lowry          HOU    7.2

The most interesting names here are Rubio, who could easily finish higher with more minutes, and Kyle Lowry. Lowry was averaging 8.7 assists through Thursday after averaging just 6.7 in similar minutes last season, so this method is understandably a bit skeptical he can keep it up.

Player               Tm    SPG 
Chris Paul          LAC    2.6
Iman Shumpert       NYK    2.4
Ricky Rubio         MIN    2.2
Rajon Rondo         BOS    2.1
Monta Ellis         GSW    2.0
Jeff Teague         ATL    2.0
Mike Conley         MEM    1.9
Brandon Jennings    MIL    1.9
Dwyane Wade         MIA    1.8

The NBA added two world-class thieves this season in Rubio and New York’s Iman Shumpert. Rubio is probably the biggest threat to Chris Paul leading the league.

Player               Tm    BPG 
JaVale McGee        WAS    2.7
Dwight Howard       ORL    2.5
DeAndre Jordan      LAC    2.4
Serge Ibaka         OKC    2.2
Andrew Bynum        LAL    2.0
Andrew Bogut        MIL    1.9
Marc Gasol          MEM    1.9
Roy Hibbert         IND    1.8
Tyrus Thomas        CHA    1.8
Josh Smith          ATL    1.7

DeAndre Jordan and JaVale McGee are both averaging three blocks a night thus far, but the conservative projection doesn’t see anyone finishing that high. Jordan in particular could come back to Earth, having averaged just 1.8 blocks per game as a starter last season.

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