Basketball Prospectus: Unfiltered Everything Else is Fluff.

May 1, 2011

Round Two Picks

Filed under: Uncategorized — Kevin Pelton @ 2:16 am

If you’re scoring at home, it was a pretty dismal first round of the playoffs for me. Like most everyone else, I was wrong about the favored San Antonio Spurs and the Orlando Magic, and I also missed with my prediction that the Dallas Mavericks would fall to the Portland Trail Blazers. So take this set of picks with the appropriate skepticism.

Miami in 7
I hate to pick this series, because I don’t entirely trust the Heat against the discipline of Tom Thibodeau defenses, but I think the Celtics will be undermined by their bench and we’ll look back on that as the difference.

Chicago in 4
Isn’t this an annual tradition with the Hawks? In seriousness, Atlanta might have had a chance to make things interesting with a healthy Kirk Hinrich–Hinrich did a good job defending Derrick Rose in the first two head-to-head meetings before Rose went off in the third. With Hinrich doubtful to play at all after injuring his right hamstring in Game Six against Orlando, the Bulls should roll.

Oklahoma City in 6
“In a vacuum, the Thunder is the better team. I don’t think the Grizzlies have enough matchup advantages to make up that gap.”

L.A. Lakers in 6
“The Lakers will make the Mavericks’ role players beat them, hopefully from the outside. That may burn the Lakers a couple of times, but ultimately it’s the high-percentage play and one that will allow the Lakers to move on.”

Stay tuned for the remaining series previews, which will be up tomorrow (Boston-Miami) and Monday (Dallas-L.A. Lakers, Atlanta-Chicago).

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