Basketball Prospectus: Unfiltered Everything Else is Fluff.

March 21, 2011

Log5: Sweet 16

Filed under: Uncategorized — Ken Pomeroy @ 1:35 am

Here’s your up-to-the-minute log5 table for the remaining 16 teams. Some pertinent notes…

– All participants have improved their chances of winning except for San Diego State and Kentucky, who get hurt by a combination of a lack of upsets in their region and a close call in one of their previous tournament games.

– Congratulations to VCU, whose Sweet 16 appearance was given a 1.2% chance of occurring and now reigns as the most improbable tournament event this season.

– Bo Ryan should send a bouquet to Brad Stevens, and likewise, Bill Self should send bouquets to many people. There are no guarantees that either wins his next game of course, but for each the path to Houston is a lot easier than could have been anticipated a week ago.

The numbers in the table represent the chance in percent of a team advancing to the round in question. San Diego State deserves a dash of home court for playing a couple hours away from campus this week, but that is not included here as it was not included in the pre-tourney calculations.

                        Elite8  Final4  Final   Champ    Prev
 1. 1E   Ohio St.        75.2    62.0    41.9    30.6    21.6
 2. 1SW  Kansas          81.1    66.3    42.8    19.8    12.4
 3. 1W   Duke            82.9    56.5    29.4    19.0    15.3
 4. 4SE  Wisconsin       79.0    47.4    25.0     9.5     2.5
 5. 2W   San Diego St.   59.0    24.5     9.4     4.7     5.0
 6. 3SE  BYU             56.4    27.7    12.7     4.0     2.7
 7. 4E   Kentucky        24.8    15.1     6.4     3.1     3.4
 8. 2E   North Carolina  63.4    16.5     6.0     2.5     1.6
 9. 2SE  Florida         43.6    18.8     7.6     2.0     1.4
10. 3W   Connecticut     41.0    13.8     4.3     1.8     1.0
11. 10SW Florida St.     64.2    17.6     5.9     1.2     0.09
12. 12SW Richmond        18.9     9.7     3.0     0.5     0.06
13. 11E  Marquette       36.6     6.3     1.6     0.5     0.1
14. 5W   Arizona         17.1     5.3     1.1     0.3     0.2
15. 8SE  Butler          21.0     6.0     1.5     0.2     0.04
16. 11SW VCU             35.8     6.5     1.4     0.2     0.0005

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