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March 13, 2011, 11:49 PM ET
Log5: NCAA tournament

by Ken Pomeroy

Here’s the log5 analysis of the NCAA tournament field. The first list is the entire field grouped together, and then each region follows. Some random notes…

- Last season, we gave Duke the best chance of winning the tournament. This is far different from saying we successfully predicted Duke would win the tournament. We did no such thing. This season, Ohio State has the best chance to win it all, and if I had to endorse one team to win it, it would be the Buckeyes. That said, it’s much safer to say that Ohio State won’t win it. Whoever does take the title will need to play very well and also get some good fortune in events outside of their control.

- I’m not terribly confident about the probabilities for Utah State and Belmont. I’m confident they are seeded undeservingly low, but by how much is very difficult to say. Maybe the NCAA will seriously study situations like these someday and we can remove the scheduling issue from the selection process.

- As with the conference tournament projections, I’m using an exponent of 11 to determine these probabilities. If that means nothing to you, don’t worry about it.

The numbers in each table represent the chance in percent of a team advancing to the round in question.

                          Rd3   Sweet16  Elite8  Final4  Final   Champ   1 in...
 1. 1E   Ohio St.         98.9    83.2    62.0    47.7    30.9    21.6    5
 2. 1W   Duke             98.3    84.5    56.5    40.3    23.5    15.3    7
 3. 1SW  Kansas           96.9    72.6    52.4    35.0    23.6    12.4    8
 4. 1SE  Pittsburgh       95.1    76.5    47.4    31.8    16.8     7.5    13
 5. 4W   Texas            86.8    67.9    32.0    20.4    10.2     5.8    17
 6. 3SW  Purdue           91.8    68.0    41.8    20.9    12.0     5.1    20
 7. 2W   San Diego St.    92.7    70.1    47.1    20.7     9.5     5.0    20
 8. 2SW  Notre Dame       91.3    66.6    36.2    16.8     9.1     3.5    28
 9. 4E   Kentucky         88.7    61.0    23.1    13.9     6.5     3.4    30
10. 3SE  Brigham Young    85.4    55.7    35.4    17.0     7.5     2.7    37
11. 4SW  Louisville       87.6    60.8    25.2    13.0     6.8     2.5    39
12. 3E   Syracuse         90.1    62.2    35.2    12.9     5.4     2.5    40
13. 4SE  Wisconsin        61.0    38.5    20.4    12.8     6.2     2.5    40
14. 2E   North Carolina   89.7    52.4    28.6     9.7     3.8     1.6    61
15. 2SE  Florida          87.8    57.8    29.4    12.2     4.6     1.4    73
16. 3W   Connecticut      83.3    48.3    22.1     7.2     2.5     1.0    101
17. 7E   Washington       72.7    37.7    19.7     6.3     2.3     1.0    104
18. 12SE Utah St.         60.1    26.9    11.9     6.4     2.5     0.8    125
19. 13SE Belmont          39.0    20.5     8.7     4.6     1.7     0.5    189
20. 9SW  Illinois         51.7    14.4     7.0     2.9     1.3     0.4    276
21. 6W   Cincinnati       56.6    28.7    11.8     3.3     1.0     0.4    281
22. 11SE Gonzaga          53.0    22.2    11.1     3.9     1.2     0.3    338
23. 8SW  UNLV             48.3    12.8     6.0     2.4     1.0     0.3    363
24. 5E   West Virginia    57.6    22.3     5.5     2.4     0.7     0.3    373
25. 5W   Arizona          76.8    24.1     6.1     2.4     0.6     0.2    482
26. 6SW  Georgetown       60.9    20.0     8.0     2.4     0.8     0.2    506
27. 6SE  St. John's       47.0    18.5     8.7     2.8     0.8     0.2    550
28. 5SW  Vanderbilt       55.7    21.3     5.6     2.0     0.7     0.2    620
29. 5SE  Kansas St.       39.9    14.0     5.0     2.2     0.7     0.2    626
30. 11E  Marquette        52.5    19.4     7.5     1.7     0.4     0.1    762
31. 10SE Michigan St.     55.0    22.9     8.6     2.5     0.6     0.1    765
32. 11W  Missouri         43.4    19.3     6.8     1.6     0.4     0.1    833
33. 8E   George Mason     50.5     8.5     3.2     1.3     0.4     0.1    890
34. 12E  Clemson          30.9    11.3     2.6     1.1     0.3     0.1    947
35. 9E   Villanova        49.5     8.2     3.1     1.2     0.3     0.1    963
36. 6E   Xavier           47.5    16.5     6.0     1.3     0.3     0.09   1167
37. 10SW Florida St.      50.8    16.2     5.2     1.4     0.4     0.09   1173
38. 7W   Temple           51.0    14.7     6.0     1.3     0.3     0.08   1183
39. 7SW  Texas A&M        49.2    15.4     4.9     1.2     0.4     0.07   1337
40. 10W  Penn St.         49.0    13.8     5.5     1.2     0.3     0.07   1407
41. 12SW Richmond         44.3    14.9     3.4     1.0     0.3     0.06   1657
42. 8W   Michigan         56.8     9.5     2.9     0.9     0.2     0.06   1761
43. 7SE  UCLA             45.0    16.8     5.6     1.4     0.3     0.05   1841
44. 11SW USC              31.6     9.1     3.2     0.8     0.3     0.05   1928
45. 9SE  Old Dominion     51.1    11.8     3.5     1.2     0.3     0.05   2035
46. 8SE  Butler           48.9    10.9     3.1     1.0     0.2     0.04   2506
47. 10E  Georgia          27.3     8.4     2.5     0.4     0.08    0.02   6107
48. 9W   Tennessee        43.2     5.9     1.5     0.4     0.07    0.02   6151
49. 12E  UAB              11.5     2.9     0.4     0.1     0.02    0.005  21266
50. 13W  Oakland          13.2     4.9     0.7     0.2     0.02    0.004  24675
51. 14SE Wofford          14.6     3.6     0.9     0.1     0.02    0.001  67960
52. 12W  Memphis          23.2     3.1     0.3     0.05    0.006   0.0008 131751
53. 14W  Bucknell         16.7     3.6     0.6     0.06    0.006   0.0007 142009
54. 13SW Morehead St.     12.4     3.0     0.3     0.04    0.006   0.0005 192702
55. 13E  Princeton        11.3     2.5     0.2     0.04    0.004   0.0005 195063
56. 11SW VCU               7.5     1.2     0.2     0.03    0.005   0.0005 203187
57. 14SW St. Peter's       8.2     1.7     0.2     0.02    0.003   0.0002 560787
58. 15SE UC Santa Barbara 12.2     2.6     0.3     0.03    0.003   0.0002 624434
59. 14E  Indiana St.       9.9     1.9     0.3     0.02    0.001   0.0001 751535
60. 15SW Akron             8.7     1.8     0.2     0.02    0.002   0.0001 854892
61. 15W  Northern Colorado 7.3     1.4     0.2     0.01    0.001  <0.0001 1178554
62. 15E  Long Island      10.3     1.5     0.2     0.01    0.0009 <0.0001 1216609
63. 16SE UNC Asheville     4.0     0.8     0.08    0.009   0.0007 <0.0001 2883054
64. 16SW Boston U.         3.1     0.3     0.02    0.002   0.0001 <0.0001 24701695
65. 16W  Hampton           1.7     0.2     0.008   0.0004 <0.0001 <0.0001 261976455
66. 16SE Ark. Little Rock  0.9     0.09    0.004   0.0003 <0.0001 <0.0001 454126213
67. 16E  Texas San Antonio 0.9     0.06    0.002   0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 1028345510
68. 16E  Alabama St.       0.1     0.003  <0.001  <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 1090873445634

SOUTHWEST              Rd3   Sweet16  Elite8  Final4  Final   Champ
 1    Kansas           96.9    72.6    52.4    35.0    23.6    12.4
 3    Purdue           91.8    68.0    41.8    20.9    12.0     5.1
 2    Notre Dame       91.3    66.6    36.2    16.8     9.1     3.5
 4    Louisville       87.6    60.8    25.2    13.0     6.8     2.5
 9    Illinois         51.7    14.4     7.0     2.9     1.3     0.4
 8    UNLV             48.3    12.8     6.0     2.4     1.0     0.3
 6    Georgetown       60.9    20.0     8.0     2.4     0.8     0.2
 5    Vanderbilt       55.7    21.3     5.6     2.0     0.7     0.2
10    Florida St.      50.8    16.2     5.2     1.4     0.4     0.09
 7    Texas A&M        49.2    15.4     4.9     1.2     0.4     0.07
12    Richmond         44.3    14.9     3.4     1.0     0.3     0.06
11    USC              31.6     9.1     3.2     0.8     0.3     0.05
13    Morehead St.     12.4     3.0     0.3     0.04    0.006   0.0005
11    VCU               7.5     1.2     0.2     0.03    0.005   0.0005
14    St. Peter's       8.2     1.7     0.2     0.02    0.003   0.0002
15    Akron             8.7     1.8     0.2     0.02    0.002   0.0001
16    Boston U.         3.1     0.3     0.02    0.002   0.0001  0.000004

SOUTHEAST              Rd3   Sweet16  Elite8  Final4  Final   Champ
 1    Pittsburgh       95.1    76.5    47.4    31.8    16.8     7.5
 3    Brigham Young    85.4    55.7    35.4    17.0     7.5     2.7
 4    Wisconsin        61.0    38.5    20.4    12.8     6.2     2.5
 2    Florida          87.8    57.8    29.4    12.2     4.6     1.4
12    Utah St.         60.1    26.9    11.9     6.4     2.5     0.8
13    Belmont          39.0    20.5     8.7     4.6     1.7     0.5
11    Gonzaga          53.0    22.2    11.1     3.9     1.2     0.3
 6    St. John's       47.0    18.5     8.7     2.8     0.8     0.2
 5    Kansas St.       39.9    14.0     5.0     2.2     0.7     0.2
10    Michigan St.     55.0    22.9     8.6     2.5     0.6     0.1
 7    UCLA             45.0    16.8     5.6     1.4     0.3     0.05
 9    Old Dominion     51.1    11.8     3.5     1.2     0.3     0.05
 8    Butler           48.9    10.9     3.1     1.0     0.2     0.04
14    Wofford          14.6     3.6     0.9     0.1     0.02    0.001
15    UC Santa Barbara 12.2     2.6     0.3     0.03    0.003   0.0002
16    UNC Asheville     4.0     0.8     0.08    0.009   0.0007  0.00003
16    Ark. Little Rock  0.9     0.09    0.004   0.0003  0.000009 0.0000002

WEST                   Rd3   Sweet16  Elite8  Final4  Final   Champ
 1    Duke             98.3    84.5    56.5    40.3    23.5    15.3
 4    Texas            86.8    67.9    32.0    20.4    10.2     5.8
 2    San Diego St.    92.7    70.1    47.1    20.7     9.5     5.0
 3    Connecticut      83.3    48.3    22.1     7.2     2.5     1.0
 6    Cincinnati       56.6    28.7    11.8     3.3     1.0     0.4
 5    Arizona          76.8    24.1     6.1     2.4     0.6     0.2
11    Missouri         43.4    19.3     6.8     1.6     0.4     0.1
 7    Temple           51.0    14.7     6.0     1.3     0.3     0.08
10    Penn St.         49.0    13.8     5.5     1.2     0.3     0.07
 8    Michigan         56.8     9.5     2.9     0.9     0.2     0.06
 9    Tennessee        43.2     5.9     1.5     0.4     0.07    0.02
13    Oakland          13.2     4.9     0.7     0.2     0.02    0.004
12    Memphis          23.2     3.1     0.3     0.05    0.006   0.0008
14    Bucknell         16.7     3.6     0.6     0.06    0.006   0.0007
15    Northern Colorado 7.3     1.4     0.2     0.01    0.001   0.00008
16    Hampton           1.7     0.2     0.008   0.0004  0.00001 0.0000004

EAST                   Rd3   Sweet16  Elite8  Final4  Final   Champ
 1    Ohio St.         98.9    83.2    62.0    47.7    30.9    21.6
 4    Kentucky         88.7    61.0    23.1    13.9     6.5     3.4
 3    Syracuse         90.1    62.2    35.2    12.9     5.4     2.5
 2    North Carolina   89.7    52.4    28.6     9.7     3.8     1.6
 7    Washington       72.7    37.7    19.7     6.3     2.3     1.0
 5    West Virginia    57.6    22.3     5.5     2.4     0.7     0.3
11    Marquette        52.5    19.4     7.5     1.7     0.4     0.1
 8    George Mason     50.5     8.5     3.2     1.3     0.4     0.1
12    Clemson          30.9    11.3     2.6     1.1     0.3     0.1
 9    Villanova        49.5     8.2     3.1     1.2     0.3     0.1
 6    Xavier           47.5    16.5     6.0     1.3     0.3     0.09
10    Georgia          27.3     8.4     2.5     0.4     0.08    0.02
12    UAB              11.5     2.9     0.4     0.1     0.02    0.005
13    Princeton        11.3     2.5     0.2     0.04    0.004   0.0005
14    Indiana St.       9.9     1.9     0.3     0.02    0.001   0.0001
15    Long Island      10.3     1.5     0.2     0.01    0.001   0.00008
16    Texas San Antonio 0.9     0.06    0.002   0.0001  0.000003 0.00000010
16    Alabama St.       0.1     0.003   0.00004 0.0000007 0.000000007 0.00000000009

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