March 13, 2011, 11:49 PM ET Log5: NCAA tournament
by Ken Pomeroy
Here’s the log5 analysis of the NCAA tournament field. The first list is the entire field grouped together, and then each region follows. Some random notes…
- Last season, we gave Duke the best chance of winning the tournament. This is far different from saying we successfully predicted Duke would win the tournament. We did no such thing. This season, Ohio State has the best chance to win it all, and if I had to endorse one team to win it, it would be the Buckeyes. That said, it’s much safer to say that Ohio State won’t win it. Whoever does take the title will need to play very well and also get some good fortune in events outside of their control.
- I’m not terribly confident about the probabilities for Utah State and Belmont. I’m confident they are seeded undeservingly low, but by how much is very difficult to say. Maybe the NCAA will seriously study situations like these someday and we can remove the scheduling issue from the selection process.
- As with the conference tournament projections, I’m using an exponent of 11 to determine these probabilities. If that means nothing to you, don’t worry about it.
The numbers in each table represent the chance in percent of a team advancing to the round in question.
Rd3 Sweet16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in...
1. 1E Ohio St. 98.9 83.2 62.0 47.7 30.9 21.6 5
2. 1W Duke 98.3 84.5 56.5 40.3 23.5 15.3 7
3. 1SW Kansas 96.9 72.6 52.4 35.0 23.6 12.4 8
4. 1SE Pittsburgh 95.1 76.5 47.4 31.8 16.8 7.5 13
5. 4W Texas 86.8 67.9 32.0 20.4 10.2 5.8 17
6. 3SW Purdue 91.8 68.0 41.8 20.9 12.0 5.1 20
7. 2W San Diego St. 92.7 70.1 47.1 20.7 9.5 5.0 20
8. 2SW Notre Dame 91.3 66.6 36.2 16.8 9.1 3.5 28
9. 4E Kentucky 88.7 61.0 23.1 13.9 6.5 3.4 30
10. 3SE Brigham Young 85.4 55.7 35.4 17.0 7.5 2.7 37
11. 4SW Louisville 87.6 60.8 25.2 13.0 6.8 2.5 39
12. 3E Syracuse 90.1 62.2 35.2 12.9 5.4 2.5 40
13. 4SE Wisconsin 61.0 38.5 20.4 12.8 6.2 2.5 40
14. 2E North Carolina 89.7 52.4 28.6 9.7 3.8 1.6 61
15. 2SE Florida 87.8 57.8 29.4 12.2 4.6 1.4 73
16. 3W Connecticut 83.3 48.3 22.1 7.2 2.5 1.0 101
17. 7E Washington 72.7 37.7 19.7 6.3 2.3 1.0 104
18. 12SE Utah St. 60.1 26.9 11.9 6.4 2.5 0.8 125
19. 13SE Belmont 39.0 20.5 8.7 4.6 1.7 0.5 189
20. 9SW Illinois 51.7 14.4 7.0 2.9 1.3 0.4 276
21. 6W Cincinnati 56.6 28.7 11.8 3.3 1.0 0.4 281
22. 11SE Gonzaga 53.0 22.2 11.1 3.9 1.2 0.3 338
23. 8SW UNLV 48.3 12.8 6.0 2.4 1.0 0.3 363
24. 5E West Virginia 57.6 22.3 5.5 2.4 0.7 0.3 373
25. 5W Arizona 76.8 24.1 6.1 2.4 0.6 0.2 482
26. 6SW Georgetown 60.9 20.0 8.0 2.4 0.8 0.2 506
27. 6SE St. John's 47.0 18.5 8.7 2.8 0.8 0.2 550
28. 5SW Vanderbilt 55.7 21.3 5.6 2.0 0.7 0.2 620
29. 5SE Kansas St. 39.9 14.0 5.0 2.2 0.7 0.2 626
30. 11E Marquette 52.5 19.4 7.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 762
31. 10SE Michigan St. 55.0 22.9 8.6 2.5 0.6 0.1 765
32. 11W Missouri 43.4 19.3 6.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 833
33. 8E George Mason 50.5 8.5 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 890
34. 12E Clemson 30.9 11.3 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 947
35. 9E Villanova 49.5 8.2 3.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 963
36. 6E Xavier 47.5 16.5 6.0 1.3 0.3 0.09 1167
37. 10SW Florida St. 50.8 16.2 5.2 1.4 0.4 0.09 1173
38. 7W Temple 51.0 14.7 6.0 1.3 0.3 0.08 1183
39. 7SW Texas A&M 49.2 15.4 4.9 1.2 0.4 0.07 1337
40. 10W Penn St. 49.0 13.8 5.5 1.2 0.3 0.07 1407
41. 12SW Richmond 44.3 14.9 3.4 1.0 0.3 0.06 1657
42. 8W Michigan 56.8 9.5 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.06 1761
43. 7SE UCLA 45.0 16.8 5.6 1.4 0.3 0.05 1841
44. 11SW USC 31.6 9.1 3.2 0.8 0.3 0.05 1928
45. 9SE Old Dominion 51.1 11.8 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.05 2035
46. 8SE Butler 48.9 10.9 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.04 2506
47. 10E Georgia 27.3 8.4 2.5 0.4 0.08 0.02 6107
48. 9W Tennessee 43.2 5.9 1.5 0.4 0.07 0.02 6151
49. 12E UAB 11.5 2.9 0.4 0.1 0.02 0.005 21266
50. 13W Oakland 13.2 4.9 0.7 0.2 0.02 0.004 24675
51. 14SE Wofford 14.6 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.02 0.001 67960
52. 12W Memphis 23.2 3.1 0.3 0.05 0.006 0.0008 131751
53. 14W Bucknell 16.7 3.6 0.6 0.06 0.006 0.0007 142009
54. 13SW Morehead St. 12.4 3.0 0.3 0.04 0.006 0.0005 192702
55. 13E Princeton 11.3 2.5 0.2 0.04 0.004 0.0005 195063
56. 11SW VCU 7.5 1.2 0.2 0.03 0.005 0.0005 203187
57. 14SW St. Peter's 8.2 1.7 0.2 0.02 0.003 0.0002 560787
58. 15SE UC Santa Barbara 12.2 2.6 0.3 0.03 0.003 0.0002 624434
59. 14E Indiana St. 9.9 1.9 0.3 0.02 0.001 0.0001 751535
60. 15SW Akron 8.7 1.8 0.2 0.02 0.002 0.0001 854892
61. 15W Northern Colorado 7.3 1.4 0.2 0.01 0.001 <0.0001 1178554
62. 15E Long Island 10.3 1.5 0.2 0.01 0.0009 <0.0001 1216609
63. 16SE UNC Asheville 4.0 0.8 0.08 0.009 0.0007 <0.0001 2883054
64. 16SW Boston U. 3.1 0.3 0.02 0.002 0.0001 <0.0001 24701695
65. 16W Hampton 1.7 0.2 0.008 0.0004 <0.0001 <0.0001 261976455
66. 16SE Ark. Little Rock 0.9 0.09 0.004 0.0003 <0.0001 <0.0001 454126213
67. 16E Texas San Antonio 0.9 0.06 0.002 0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 1028345510
68. 16E Alabama St. 0.1 0.003 <0.001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 1090873445634
SOUTHWEST Rd3 Sweet16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ
1 Kansas 96.9 72.6 52.4 35.0 23.6 12.4
3 Purdue 91.8 68.0 41.8 20.9 12.0 5.1
2 Notre Dame 91.3 66.6 36.2 16.8 9.1 3.5
4 Louisville 87.6 60.8 25.2 13.0 6.8 2.5
9 Illinois 51.7 14.4 7.0 2.9 1.3 0.4
8 UNLV 48.3 12.8 6.0 2.4 1.0 0.3
6 Georgetown 60.9 20.0 8.0 2.4 0.8 0.2
5 Vanderbilt 55.7 21.3 5.6 2.0 0.7 0.2
10 Florida St. 50.8 16.2 5.2 1.4 0.4 0.09
7 Texas A&M 49.2 15.4 4.9 1.2 0.4 0.07
12 Richmond 44.3 14.9 3.4 1.0 0.3 0.06
11 USC 31.6 9.1 3.2 0.8 0.3 0.05
13 Morehead St. 12.4 3.0 0.3 0.04 0.006 0.0005
11 VCU 7.5 1.2 0.2 0.03 0.005 0.0005
14 St. Peter's 8.2 1.7 0.2 0.02 0.003 0.0002
15 Akron 8.7 1.8 0.2 0.02 0.002 0.0001
16 Boston U. 3.1 0.3 0.02 0.002 0.0001 0.000004
SOUTHEAST Rd3 Sweet16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ
1 Pittsburgh 95.1 76.5 47.4 31.8 16.8 7.5
3 Brigham Young 85.4 55.7 35.4 17.0 7.5 2.7
4 Wisconsin 61.0 38.5 20.4 12.8 6.2 2.5
2 Florida 87.8 57.8 29.4 12.2 4.6 1.4
12 Utah St. 60.1 26.9 11.9 6.4 2.5 0.8
13 Belmont 39.0 20.5 8.7 4.6 1.7 0.5
11 Gonzaga 53.0 22.2 11.1 3.9 1.2 0.3
6 St. John's 47.0 18.5 8.7 2.8 0.8 0.2
5 Kansas St. 39.9 14.0 5.0 2.2 0.7 0.2
10 Michigan St. 55.0 22.9 8.6 2.5 0.6 0.1
7 UCLA 45.0 16.8 5.6 1.4 0.3 0.05
9 Old Dominion 51.1 11.8 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.05
8 Butler 48.9 10.9 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.04
14 Wofford 14.6 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.02 0.001
15 UC Santa Barbara 12.2 2.6 0.3 0.03 0.003 0.0002
16 UNC Asheville 4.0 0.8 0.08 0.009 0.0007 0.00003
16 Ark. Little Rock 0.9 0.09 0.004 0.0003 0.000009 0.0000002
WEST Rd3 Sweet16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ
1 Duke 98.3 84.5 56.5 40.3 23.5 15.3
4 Texas 86.8 67.9 32.0 20.4 10.2 5.8
2 San Diego St. 92.7 70.1 47.1 20.7 9.5 5.0
3 Connecticut 83.3 48.3 22.1 7.2 2.5 1.0
6 Cincinnati 56.6 28.7 11.8 3.3 1.0 0.4
5 Arizona 76.8 24.1 6.1 2.4 0.6 0.2
11 Missouri 43.4 19.3 6.8 1.6 0.4 0.1
7 Temple 51.0 14.7 6.0 1.3 0.3 0.08
10 Penn St. 49.0 13.8 5.5 1.2 0.3 0.07
8 Michigan 56.8 9.5 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.06
9 Tennessee 43.2 5.9 1.5 0.4 0.07 0.02
13 Oakland 13.2 4.9 0.7 0.2 0.02 0.004
12 Memphis 23.2 3.1 0.3 0.05 0.006 0.0008
14 Bucknell 16.7 3.6 0.6 0.06 0.006 0.0007
15 Northern Colorado 7.3 1.4 0.2 0.01 0.001 0.00008
16 Hampton 1.7 0.2 0.008 0.0004 0.00001 0.0000004
EAST Rd3 Sweet16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ
1 Ohio St. 98.9 83.2 62.0 47.7 30.9 21.6
4 Kentucky 88.7 61.0 23.1 13.9 6.5 3.4
3 Syracuse 90.1 62.2 35.2 12.9 5.4 2.5
2 North Carolina 89.7 52.4 28.6 9.7 3.8 1.6
7 Washington 72.7 37.7 19.7 6.3 2.3 1.0
5 West Virginia 57.6 22.3 5.5 2.4 0.7 0.3
11 Marquette 52.5 19.4 7.5 1.7 0.4 0.1
8 George Mason 50.5 8.5 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.1
12 Clemson 30.9 11.3 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1
9 Villanova 49.5 8.2 3.1 1.2 0.3 0.1
6 Xavier 47.5 16.5 6.0 1.3 0.3 0.09
10 Georgia 27.3 8.4 2.5 0.4 0.08 0.02
12 UAB 11.5 2.9 0.4 0.1 0.02 0.005
13 Princeton 11.3 2.5 0.2 0.04 0.004 0.0005
14 Indiana St. 9.9 1.9 0.3 0.02 0.001 0.0001
15 Long Island 10.3 1.5 0.2 0.01 0.001 0.00008
16 Texas San Antonio 0.9 0.06 0.002 0.0001 0.000003 0.00000010
16 Alabama St. 0.1 0.003 0.00004 0.0000007 0.000000007 0.00000000009
