Basketball Prospectus: Unfiltered Everything Else is Fluff.

March 13, 2011

How to watch Selection Sunday

Filed under: Uncategorized — John Gasaway @ 11:05 am

With only four games to be played today, the selection committee should have the field of 68 pretty well set — with one exception. Dayton, with no hope of getting a bid otherwise, can steal an invite away from a bubble team somewhere with a win in today’s A-10 championship game over Richmond (who should be safely in even if they lose).

Who’s in?
Andy Glockner has Georgia in and Saint Mary’s out, while Joe Lunardi has the the Dawgs out and the Gaels in. Both Glockner and Lunardi have UAB out, but the Bracket Project has the Blazers in.

Let’s do this. Here’s a list of bubble teams sequenced by our old friend these many years RPI. For simplicity’s sake I’m leaving Penn State off — the Nittany Lions are still in the hunt for an automatic bid.

UAB 30
Georgia 43
Saint Mary’s 46
VCU 53
Colorado 65
USC 68
Alabama 77

Who are the 1-seeds?
Ohio State and Kansas are locks. Pitt is generally assumed. Most mocks have Duke as the fourth 1-seed. Inveterate iconoclast Lunardi has Notre Dame.

Bear in mind that as long as the committee continues to use RPI as “just one tool” (a bit like using phrenology as just one tool), interest in who gets a 1-seed will exceed the importance of getting a 1-seed. Starting with the round of 32 the strength of your opponents is a crap shoot regardless of your seed, because the field’s been seeded using a system that thought New Mexico was a 3 last year. A 1-seed’s a really cool honor, but you may have an easier path as a 2.

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