Basketball Prospectus: Unfiltered Everything Else is Fluff.

March 9, 2011

Log5: Big West, Great West, and Ivy

Filed under: Uncategorized — Ken Pomeroy @ 2:04 am

This is the eighth and final installment of mass log5 numbers. Arkansas-Little Rock’s victory in the Sun Belt title game last night currently stands as the craziest tournament-related happening so far. Log5 gave it just a 3.8 percent chance of occurring before the Sun Belt tourney started.

The numbers in each table represent the chance in percent of a team advancing to the round in question.

Big West
March 10-12. All games at Anaheim, Ca.

Dan Monson has quietly put together a nice team at Long Beach. Remember when the 49ers were giving UNC fits? Well, it turns out that was as much about LBSU being pretty good as it was about the Tar Heels trying to find themselves.

                      Semis   Final   Champ
1 Long Beach St.       81.8    64.3    44.5
2 Cal Poly             80.0    48.7    21.6
4 Pacific              53.2    28.1    13.3
5 UC Santa Barbara     46.8    23.4    10.5
3 Cal St. Northridge   56.2    18.0     5.4
6 Cal St. Fullerton    43.8     8.4     2.1
8 UC Irvine            18.2     6.4     2.1
7 UC Riverside         20.0     2.7     0.5

Great West
March 10-12. All games at Utah Valley.

It’s better to be Big than Great because the Great West doesn’t get an automatic bid (not to the NCAA tournament, anyway). But hey, they’re a real conference just like the Big Ten and Big East! The Wolverines are the favorite to win this event, which takes place mere minutes from Jimmer-land.

                      Semis   Final   Champ
1 Utah Valley           100    76.3    62.3
4 South Dakota         94.5    23.6    15.8
3 North Dakota         71.5    41.6    10.4
2 NJIT                 73.5    39.8     9.3
6 UTPA                 28.5    10.5     1.3
7 Houston Baptist      26.5     8.1     0.8
5 Chicago St.           5.5     0.1     0.02

March 12. All games at New Haven, Conn.

The top two seeds get byes all the way to the championship game in this tournament’s unusual format. Tommy Amaker’s club is a slight favorite to win this one.

1 Harvard    57.8
1 Princeton  42.2

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