Home Unfiltered Articles Players Baseball Prospectus
Basketball Prospectus home


rssOur Latest Blog Entries
03-12Tuesday Truths: Turn-out-the-lights ed...
03-04Why Bobinski's answer matters by John ...
02-06What is the "full statistical treatmen...

March 7, 2011, 01:41 AM ET
Log5: A-10, MAC, and MEAC

by Ken Pomeroy

The A-10, MAC, and MEAC tournaments get underway tomorrow. Read on below for the probabilistic preview of each. The most improbable tournament event to date has been North Florida’s appearance in the Atlantic Sun title game, which had a 8.2 percent chance of occurring. Some team will beat that this week. Maybe even a team in one of the tournaments below.

The numbers in each table represent the chance in percent of a team advancing to the round in question.

Atlantic 10
March 8, 11-13. First round at higher seed. Remainder at Atlantic City.

The top four seeds are the teams to watch here – there is only a four percent chance that one of the teams participating in the first round wins the title. Xavier has been rolling, with a four-point loss at Charlotte being the only blemish on its record over the past two months. But given the strength of the two-through-four seeds, this tournament is far from a gimme for the Musketeers.

                       Rd1   Semis   Final   Champ
 1 Xavier              100    84.4    55.6    31.9
 2 Temple              100    84.6    52.4    28.8
 3 Richmond            100    76.8    38.0    18.6
 4 Duquesne            100    81.2    36.3    16.8
 6 Rhode Island       65.1    15.2     3.8     0.9
 9 Dayton             51.7    10.2     3.5     0.9
 5 G. Washington      77.9    16.2     3.1     0.6
 7 St. Bonaventure    71.8    11.8     3.1     0.6
11 St. Louis          34.9     8.1     2.0     0.5
 8 Massachusetts      48.3     5.4     1.2     0.2
10 La Salle           28.2     3.5     0.7     0.1
12 St. Joseph's       22.1     2.7     0.3     0.04

Mid-American
March 8, 10-12. First round at higher seed. Remainder at Cleveland.

Throw out the seeds in this one. The conference that sent its nine-seed to the NCAA tournament last season to disembowel Georgetown in the first round produces the most unusual breakdown I’ve seen in five seasons of doing this. Much like in the Sun Belt, there’s plenty of parity at the top of the MAC. Unlike the Sun Belt, the MAC’s favorite is an eight-seed, closely followed by its six-seed. And there’s this: Eighth-seeded Buffalo has about a one-in-five chance of cutting down the nets at the Q, while ninth-seeded Central Michigan has a one-in-2000 chance of doing so. Enjoy!

                       Rd1   Semis   Final   Champ
 8 Buffalo            92.6    50.2    32.0    20.4
 6 Akron              90.8    58.6    37.6    19.0
 1 Kent St.            100    48.7    29.1    17.5
 2 Western Michigan    100    72.8    35.0    14.7
 5 Ohio               96.6    52.9    21.6    11.4
 4 Ball St.            100    46.8    17.1     8.2
 3 Miami OH            100    39.0    19.6     7.1
 7 Bowling Green      69.0    19.6     5.4     1.2
10 Northern Illinois  31.0     7.6     1.8     0.4
11 Eastern Michigan    9.2     2.4     0.6     0.1
 9 Central Michigan    7.4     1.1     0.2     0.05
12 Toledo              3.4     0.2     0.01    0.0008

MEAC
March 8-12. All games at Winston Salem, N.C.

Welcome to the MEAC, the only conference creative enough to play different rounds of its tournament on the same day. Coppin State goes from league doormat last season to a legitimate title contender in 2011. And for the first time since 2007, Todd Bozeman’s Morgan State Bears are not the top choice to win the tournament. That honor belongs to Hampton who has a neutral site victory over Colorado State to its credit.

                       Rd1   Semis   Final   Champ
 2 Hampton             100    84.4    50.3    32.5
 3 Coppin St.          100    69.4    35.3    21.3
 4 Morgan St.          100    58.8    37.2    17.5
 1 Bethune Cookman     100    61.3    27.0    10.2
 5 North Carolina A&T  100    41.2    22.6     8.7
 6 Norfolk St.        78.6    27.9    10.4     4.8
 8 Delaware St.       62.9    27.2    10.2     3.2
 9 South Carolina St. 37.1    11.5     3.0     0.7
 7 Florida A&M        58.4    10.2     2.5     0.7
10 UMES               41.6     5.4     1.0     0.2
11 Howard             21.4     2.8     0.4     0.08

Basketball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Basketball Prospectus Unfiltered is powered by WordPress.
Copyright © 1996-2014 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.