Basketball Prospectus: Unfiltered Everything Else is Fluff.

March 4, 2011

Log5: Big Sky, Summit, and Sun Belt

Filed under: Uncategorized — Ken Pomeroy @ 10:41 am

Three conferences use Saturday as the launch day for their tournaments. Read on below for the probabilistic preview of each.

The numbers in each table represent the chance in percent of a team advancing to the round in question.

Big Sky
March 5, 8, 9. First round at higher seed. Semifinals/finals at Northern Colorado.

This is my favorite tournament in all the land. The Big Sky’s version is structured in such a way to give some sort of advantage to each rung of the standings ladder. Well, each rung above six, since the Big Sky’s event is also the most exclusive in D-I. UNC gets to host the semifinals and finals for the first time, which is an important perk since the top four seeds are evenly-matched.

                     Semis   Final   Champ
1 Northern Colorado    100    70.5    46.4
2 Montana              100    59.4    25.0
4 Northern Arizona    89.6    33.6    16.8
3 Weber St.           84.9    33.7    11.3
6 E. Washington       15.1     1.6     0.3
5 Montana St.         10.4     1.2     0.2

Summit
March 5-8 at Sioux Falls, S.D.

Oakland is the favorite and the most well-known team to casual hoops passers-by. And they did lead the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency. However, South Dakota State is one of the most worthy darkhorses to be found in Championship Week. I’m giving them half of a home-court advantage here, but even without it, they may be the second-best team in the Summit. And thus, there’s a high chance that a potential semifinal game between the Grizzlies and Jackrabbits will produce the Summit’s NCAA tournament participant.

                     Semis   Final   Champ
1 Oakland             88.9    54.9    39.8
5 South Dakota St.    74.1    36.1    24.4
2 Oral Roberts        60.7    36.4    13.3
3 IUPUI               78.8    39.4    13.0
7 North Dakota St.    39.3    19.6     5.4
4 IPFW                25.9     6.9     2.9
6 UMKC                21.2     4.6     0.6
8 Southern Utah       11.1     2.0     0.5

Sun Belt
March 5-8 at Hot Springs, Ark.

How confusing is it that the Sun Belt plays its tournament at Summit Arena? It would be like the Pac-10 playing its tourney at the Big East Center. Hot Springs is the home for unpredictability – no team can claim more than a 20 percent chance to win this 12-team event. Really, I don’t think your office could have any more fun than to participate in a Sun Belt pool. Start one today, then pick Western Kentucky to maximize your chances of taking home some cash next week!

                       Rd1   Semis   Final   Champ
1E Florida Atlantic    100    62.2    35.4    20.2
1W Arkansas St.        100    67.0    36.0    18.4
2E Middle Tennessee    100    59.0    32.1    16.1
3E Western Kentucky   88.6    52.9    27.6    15.2
2W La. Lafayette       100    45.3    19.3     8.8
3W Denver             67.8    31.6    16.2     7.6
4W North Texas        69.2    30.0    15.1     7.6
5W Ark. Little Rock   64.2    24.1     9.9     3.8
6E Florida Int'l      32.2     9.4     3.2     0.9
5E Troy               30.8     7.8     2.5     0.8
4E South Alabama      35.8     9.0     2.6     0.7
6W La. Monroe         11.4     1.8     0.2     0.03

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