Basketball Prospectus: Unfiltered Everything Else is Fluff.

March 3, 2011

Log5: CAA, MAAC, and SoCon

Filed under: Uncategorized — Ken Pomeroy @ 10:41 am

We’re on the eve of three more conference tournaments, and accordingly, here’s another dose of log5 analysis. Read on below for the probabilistic preview of each. The early leader in the clubhouse for unusual tournament happenings is High Point, who went on the road and knocked off second-seeded Liberty in the Big South first round.

The numbers in each table represent the chance in percent of a team advancing to the round in question.

Colonial
March 4-7. All games at Richmond, Va.

With George Mason comfortably in the tournament field according to every bracketologist in the land, we have our first look at a potential bid thief. According to this analysis, there’s a 48 percent chance of somebody from the CAA stealing an at-large bid earned by the season-long performance of somebody else. JMU is an intriguing long-shot to back. They would be a slight favorite in a second-round game against the national leader in luck, third-seeded Hofstra. VCU has been given half of a home-court advantage here.

                       Rd1   Semis   Final   Champ
 1 George Mason        100    94.2    73.3    51.9
 2 Old Dominion        100    87.9    67.6    29.9
 4 VCU                 100    63.2    17.5     8.2
 6 James Madison      78.1    49.2    16.8     4.2
 5 Drexel             87.8    35.8     8.1     3.2
 3 Hofstra             100    43.8    10.7     1.8
10 Northeastern       52.8     6.7     2.2     0.3
 7 Delaware           47.2     5.4     1.7     0.2
11 William & Mary     21.9     7.0     1.0     0.1
 8 UNC Wilmington     53.6     3.3     0.6     0.09
 9 Georgia St.        46.4     2.5     0.4     0.06
12 Towson             12.2     1.0     0.05    0.005

Metro Atlantic
March 4-7. All games at Fairfield.

For the fourth consecutive season, the top seed in the MAAC tourney gets to play at home. This is noteworthy because the site is chosen before the season. Perhaps this is good news for Fairfield, since the home team has won its last nine games in this event. Of course, each of those teams was named Siena. Iona’s rated as the strongest team in the conference, but the home venue makes Fairfield the favorite.

                       Rd1   Semis   Final   Champ
 1 Fairfield           100    95.6    74.5    47.0
 2 Iona                100    86.7    61.5    32.6
 3 Rider               100    65.6    25.5     9.6
 4 St. Peter's         100    56.8    16.4     5.4
 5 Loyola MD           100    43.2     8.4     2.4
 6 Canisius            100    34.4     9.0     2.2
 7 Siena              79.1    12.3     3.9     0.7
 8 Niagara            60.9     2.8     0.5     0.04
 9 Marist             39.1     1.6     0.2     0.01
10 Manhattan          20.9     1.0     0.1     0.008

Southern
March 4-7. All games at Chattanooga.

Four of the top five options reside in the South division, and the North’s second-seed, Chattanooga, is the sixth choice despite hosting the event and getting a first-round bye. I’m OK with divisional scheduling the way the Big 12 does it. I’m even fine with a conference listing its standings in divisional format. But divisional seeding, especially in the SoCon where teams play more than one game each against teams in the opposite division, is a scourge upon conference tournaments everywhere.

                       Rd1   Semis   Final   Champ
1S Coll. Of Charleston 100    87.8    70.2    45.0
2S Wofford             100    79.7    53.2    27.9
1N W. Carolina         100    59.6    24.3    10.2
3S Furman             87.3    58.5    18.8     7.6
4S Davidson           81.8    36.8    15.4     5.7
2N Chattanooga         100    38.6     7.7     2.2
3N Appalachian St.    85.7    19.6     6.6     1.9
4N Elon               62.5     8.8     3.5     0.8
5S The Citadel        37.5     3.4     1.0     0.2
5N UNC Greensboro     18.2     3.6     0.5     0.07
6N Samford            12.7     4.5     0.3     0.04
6S Georgia Southern   14.3     0.7     0.08    0.005

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