Basketball Prospectus: Unfiltered Everything Else is Fluff.

March 2, 2011

Log5: America East, the Valley, and the NEC

Filed under: Uncategorized — Ken Pomeroy @ 1:49 am

It’s day three of our log5 odyssey. Three more tournaments will begin tomorrow. Read on below for the probabilistic preview of each.

The numbers in each table represent the chance in percent of a team advancing to the round in question.

America East
March 3, 5, 6, 12. All games at Hartford, except title game which is at higher seed.

America East gets underway with the pigtail game tomorrow. Evan Fjeld and Vermont dominated conference play, leading AE in both 2P% defense, 3P% defense, and defensive rebounding. Not to mention the Catamounts were second-best in the conference in forcing turnovers. Mike Lonergan, prepare to send out a few resumes this offseason!

                       Rd1   Semis   Final   Champ
1 Vermont              100    94.5    76.9    64.0
2 Boston U.            100    77.6    49.0    17.2
3 Maine                100    64.2    30.9     9.2
5 Stony Brook          100    60.3    12.6     3.9
4 Albany               100    39.7     9.4     3.3
6 Hartford             100    35.8    12.5     1.2
7 New Hampshire        100    22.4     7.6     1.0
9 Binghamton          61.1     3.9     0.9     0.1
8 UMBC                38.9     1.6     0.2     0.02

Missouri Valley
March 3-6. All games at St. Louis.

Arch Madness fields its usual level of parity, and it starts tomorrow night with two virtual coin flips. There’s a 73 percent chance that the top-seed (and the team that swept the two-seed) won’t win. So don’t be surprised if that happens. Also not surprising is that bracketologists say this is a one-bid conference. Somehow this season, the Valley tumbled to the 14th spot among conferences in my power ratings.

                       Rd1   Semis   Final   Champ
 1 Missouri St.        100    87.1    55.7    27.2
 2 Wichita St.         100    87.7    68.8    46.1
 3 Indiana St.         100    68.3    21.1     8.7 
 5 Creighton           100    53.4    22.9     8.6
 4 Northern Iowa       100    46.6    18.6     6.5
 6 Evansville          100    31.7     5.8     1.5
10 Bradley            50.4     6.2     2.2     0.5
 7 Drake              49.6     6.1     2.1     0.5
 9 Illinois St.       50.8     6.7     1.4     0.2
 8 Southern Illinois  49.2     6.3     1.3     0.2

Northeast
March 3, 6, 9. All games at higher seed.

The NEC employs both campus sites and re-seeding. Basically, the little man doesn’t stand a chance. This method masks any seeding hijinks, of which there aren’t much to gripe about anyway. Robert Morris has a legit claim to being the second-best team in the conference, but they’ll be an underdog in a hypothetical semifinal game at Quinnipiac.

                     Semis   Final   Champ
1 Long Island         91.9    73.0    53.4
2 Quinnipiac          83.4    52.3    19.4
3 Robert Morris       83.8    39.8    16.5
4 Central Connecticut 78.2    25.1     9.0
5 St. Francis NY      21.8     4.4     1.0
6 Wagner              16.2     2.4     0.4
7 Mt. St. Mary's      16.6     1.9     0.2
8 St. Francis PA       8.1     1.0     0.1

No Comments

No comments yet.

RSS feed for comments on this post.

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.

Powered by WordPress