Basketball Prospectus: Unfiltered Everything Else is Fluff.

April 17, 2010

log5, BBP-style

Filed under: Uncategorized — Bradford Doolittle @ 1:58 pm

Kevin’s previous post linking to the preview pieces at FanHouse reminded me that, hey, I’ve got a log5 application to project the NBA playoffs, too. Duh. I built it last spring and used it all season to generate the championship probabilities in my Hoops List series*. So I’d be remiss if I didn’t go on record with those projections.

* I owe you a final Hoops List for the regular season. Coming soon. This piece will steal a bit of thunder from that because you’ll see in these numbers that Orlando passed Cleveland for the top spot in the rankings. This in fact happened on the final night of the season, when Atlanta beat coasting Cleveland handily, while Orlando was easily dispatching of lowly Philadelphia.

These numbers will differ from Ziller’s because I used NBAPET power rankings as my inputs. Last season, I found that the power rankings formula had as much predictive value for postseason success as winning percentage, point differential and efficiency margin. POW and EM actually come out fractionally ahead of the other two, but the difference is small. But, hey, it’s something! Using the POW ratings for each team, I use the log5 method to calculate the probabilities for each series, then run a Monte Carlo-style simulator 1,000 times to generate the percentages you see below. Each column represents the team’s chance to advance to that round.

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EASTERN CONFERENCE
SD  TEA   POW    R8%    R4%    R2%    R1%
E1  cle  59.2  93.2%  76.5%  44.5%  29.7%
E8  chi  38.5   6.8%   1.5%   0.2%   0.0%
—————————————–
E4  bos  49.7  61.0%  16.6%   5.8%   2.5%
E5  mia  46.5  39.0%   5.4%   1.3%   0.3%
—————————————–
E3  atl  53.2  72.4%  25.6%  10.2%   4.9%
E6  mil  45.2  27.6%   5.7%   1.2%   0.1%
—————————————–
E2  orl  59.4  89.5%  65.3%  36.5%  25.4%
E7  cha  44.5  10.5%   3.4%   0.3%   0.1%
=========================================
WESTERN CONFERENCE
W1  lal  56.5  69.5%  40.4%  26.3%  11.0%
W8  okc  50.8  30.5%  12.6%   6.1%   1.7%
—————————————–
W4  den  53.6  48.3%  21.6%  12.1%   4.5%
W5  uta  55.1  51.7%  25.4%  14.7%   6.2%
—————————————–
W3  phx  53.7  61.8%  33.1%  13.6%   4.8%
W6  por  50.0  38.2%  17.0%   5.1%   1.5%
—————————————–
W2  dal  51.3  44.9%  21.9%   8.0%   2.1%
W7  sas  53.8  55.1%  28.0%  14.1%   5.2%

I’ll re-run these numbers after the end of each round. Not too many surprises, at least to me. Log5 likes the Jazz over the Nuggets, the only lower seed favored in the first round.

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