Basketball Prospectus: Unfiltered Everything Else is Fluff.

April 17, 2010

Log5 Comes to the NBA Playoffs

Filed under: Uncategorized — Kevin Pelton @ 2:46 am

Ken Pomeroy doesn’t realize how easy he has it. Doing Pomeroy’s patented log5 projections for the NCAA Tournament is relatively simple compared to playing out all the possible permutations of each best-of-seven NBA Playoff series. Fortunately, Fanhouse.com’s Tom Ziller stepped in to do that work as part of Fanhouse’s previews, co-written by Ziller and Bethlehem Shoals, both friends of BBP.

Suffice it to say that the eighth-seeded Chicago Bulls are the NBA equivalent of a 16 seed. Log-5 gives them just a three percent chance of upsetting the Cleveland Cavaliers. “So overmatched does Chicago appear,” writes Ziller, “there’s a better probability Cleveland will lose Game 1 and reel off four straight wins (4.3%) than the Bulls will win the series.”

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