Basketball Prospectus: Unfiltered Everything Else is Fluff.

March 2, 2010

SoCon and AE (updated!) tournament projections

Filed under: Uncategorized — Ken Pomeroy @ 11:22 pm

The brackets for the Southern Conference were set late Monday night. It’s a 12-team tourney played entirely at a neutral site in Charlotte. Wofford is the favorite, having gone 15-3 out of the tougher South division (the Southern South?), and 2-0 in the tougher East division of the SEC. You may also remember them from competitive road games at Pitt and at Michigan State.

Southern Conference (March 5-8, all games played in Charlotte, N.C.)

                    Qtrs    Semis    Final    Champ
1S Wofford           100     87.5     65.2     46.2
1N Appalachian St.   100     70.1     41.6     17.8
2S Charleston        100     80.0     41.6     16.4
2N Western Carolina  100     62.2     20.9     10.3
3S Davidson         75.7     33.0      9.5      4.1
4S The Citadel      66.3     22.8     10.1      3.0
5S Furman           56.3      7.7      2.5      0.7
3N Chattanooga      59.9     13.5      3.3      0.6
4N UNC Greensboro   43.7      4.8      1.3      0.3
5N Samford          33.7      7.1      2.1      0.4
6S Georgia Southern 40.1      6.5      1.2      0.1
6N Elon             24.3      4.8      0.6      0.1

If you were really paying attention to the college hoops wire, you noticed that America East shamed Binghamton into pulling out of its tournament. I’m not sure whether I agree with this decision, although I can see where the conference might have been embarrassed had BU won the title. (On a related note, were I conference commissioner of the Horizon, in addition to going with a traditional bracket, I would politely excuse Butler from the conference tourney. Instant two-bid league! Seriously, is there any rule against that?)

The beneficiary here is Vermont, who gets to take on the weakest team in the conference, UMBC, in the first round. The one-seed Stony Brook is now forced to play Albany in a losable first-round game. The updated brackets allowed me to catch an error in my earlier computations – the championship game is played at the higher seed.

America East (March 6, 7, 13, first two rounds at Hartford, championship at higher seed.)

                  Semis    Final    Champ
2 Vermont         93.4     66.8     40.1
4 Boston U.       83.2     57.8     26.3
1 Stony Brook     81.9     33.8     20.2
3 Maine           71.3     26.2     11.5
6 New Hampshire   28.7      6.0      0.9
5 Hartford        16.8      5.7      0.6
8 Albany          18.1      2.7      0.3
7 UMBC             6.6      1.0      0.1

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