Basketball Prospectus: Unfiltered Everything Else is Fluff.

November 3, 2008

Daily Ten: Sunday’s games

Filed under: Uncategorized — Bradford Doolittle @ 12:31 pm

Only a pair of games on Sunday, leaving the competition for the Daily Ten pretty sparse. Milwaukee’s Michael Redd’s 10.8 gRATE, however, would have made the cut on almost any day. Redd is off to a fabulous start. His 10.8 WP82 (wins produced prorated to 82 games) ranks 14th among the 240 players that have played at least 30 percent of the available minutes at their position. Redd’s peformance on Sunday was atypical, however. Redd took a backseat on the offensive end to fill-in point guard Ramon Sessions, who scored 18 points in 17 FGA in 43 minutes. Redd, meanwhile, scored 16 points on eight FGA before leaving with sprained ankle in the third quarter. NBAPET, nevertheless, gives Redd the bulk of the credit for Jamal Crawford’s 1-point-in-32-minutes flop. Either it’s a case of counterpart mismatching or Scott Skiles is already having a positive impact on Milwaukee’s defense.

Nov. 2 (3.3% of season complete, 41/1230 games)

1. redd,michael_mil 10.4
2. mbah_a_moute,luc_mil 8.6
3. villanueva,charlie_mil 6.4
4. robinson,nate_nyk 6.3
5. richardson,quentin_nyk 4.4
6. brewer,corey_min 4.1
7. watson,earl_okc 3.5
8. collison,nick_okc 3.0
9. sessions,ramon_mil 2.6
10. mason,desmond_okc 2.5

Explanation of gRATE here:

Center court
Minnesota’s Corey Brewer had an unusually poor rookie season in 2007-08, especially on the offensive end. Brewer averaged just 10.2 points per 40 minutes, hitting a 38.2 eFG percent. He had trouble getting his own shot (15% usage rate), not a trait you want to see in a supposedly-athletic 21-year-old lottery pick.

In the early part of his second season, Brewer seems to be status quo. He’s at 9.8 points per 40 minutes and his eFG is 42.5 percent on a usage rate of 11%. Nevertheless, Brewer’s WP82 is a solid 6.4, which would be nearly 5 wins above his projection. I thought Brewer would be an elite perimeter defender coming out of Florida, with his long arms and athletic ability. He may be becoming an impact defender already. His steal rate is 14th in the league and his NBAPET individual defensive rate is in the top 40. He’s also chipping in with a surprisingly strong showing on the offensive glass.

Is Brewer a Quinton Ross or Bruce Bowen in the making? Too soon to make that call, but it’s something that bears watching. In Minnesota, where Al Jefferson, Randy Foye and Rashad McCants are the go-to scorers, Mike Miller the shooting specialist and Kevin Love the physical presence, Brewer fills a role. I’m not sure it’s the role that Kevin McHale envisioned when he took Brewer at No. 7 last year, but it’s a role nonetheless.

In the news

  • Very early pace pulse: Mike D’Antoni has the Knicks playing at the fastest tempo in the league. Nate Robinson, in particular, seems to be thriving in D’Antoni’s system — on both ends of the floor.
  • I don’t think I need to embellish on what Reggie Theus told the Sacramento Bee about the possibility of starting Jason Thompson over Mikki Moore: “Mikki’s job is not in jeopardy at all,” Theus said. “If (young players) earn their minutes, they will get their minutes. (But) you’ve got to do something above and beyond to take a veteran’s position in the starting lineup.”
  • The Warriors’ last cut, Notre Dame rookie forward Rob Kurz, was re-signed on Sunday. The NBA’s rule is that you have to keep a player on the 15-man roster for at least three games before you can move him to the suspended list. Golden State played its third game on Saturday, meaning that Chris Mullin could remove Monta Ellis from the roster, opening a spot for Kurz.
  • Today could be Stephon Marbury’s last day as a Knick. Or it may not. New York president/GM Donnie Walsh is meeting with Marbury and D’Antoni today. Marbury has been inactive for two straight games and has no apparent role in D’Antoni’s plan for the team. What he does have, however, is a gigantic contract. Walsh told the New York Post: “I’m saying I got to get involved in this,” Walsh said. “There aren’t a lot of options.”


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