Basketball Prospectus: Unfiltered Everything Else is Fluff.

July 23, 2009

Atlantic update

Filed under: Uncategorized — Bradford Doolittle @ 2:32 pm

As a handful of alert reader have pointed out, I omitted Eddie House from the Celtics’ roster. I had entered his contract info incorrectly in my database and he ended up in the unrestricted free agent bin. My bad. Thirty teams, 15 slots per team with moves coming hard and heavy this time of the year — it’s a lot to keep track of, but hopefully I’ve ironed out most discrepancies. If my news aggregators miss something, then I might miss something. I do appreciate the corrected info and will be sure to own up to any errors on Unfiltered.

Someone also pointed out that I didn’t address Lester Hudson’s broken finger, which he had surgery on about 10 days ago. I made a conscious decision not to factor in any but the most catastrophic injuries. So I won’t be accounting for Blake Griffin’s tweaked shoulder or even Paddy Mills’ broken foot because, as of now, these problems are supposed to be cleared up in time for the season. The same holds true for Hudson, who is only expected to be out for a month and whose injury was on his non-shooting hand. Right now the only injury I’ve factored into the team snapshots is the most obvious one: Yao Ming.

The projected division standings that are listed in today’s Atlantic overview have changed a bit in the week since I first started the piece, so I’ll list the updated table. I’ll do these kind of updates periodically for each division in Unfiltered, especially after significant moves. Eventually this will lead up to more thorough playing time projections and more concrete team won-loss forecasts. With so many rosters incomplete, there are some wild projections being kicked out right now, as Bucks and Spurs fans will find out. Also, team projections will eventually have to be filtered through the official NBA schedule once that’s released. Right now everything is set to balance at the league level, but there is no real adjustment for strength of schedule.

Anyway, here’s how NBAPET sees the Atlantic Division as of today. (Note: I’ve added projected team ages, which are weighted for anticipated playing time)

Team       W    L   Pct.    Age  aRNK  Pace   pRNK   oEFF   oRNK   dEFF   dRNK   eMarg   Rank   cRNK   Payroll
Celtics   63   19   .766   29.7    2   89.0   18    108.6    15   100.6   1        8.0      4      2     $80.0
76ers     40   42   .490   24.8   23   88.9   20    106.7    20   106.9   11      -0.2     16      7     $60.6
Nets      33   49   .405   25.8   20   88.6   23    101.2    28   103.7   4       -2.5     19      8     $53.0
Raptors   27   55   .329   25.9   19   90.6   14    105.1    22   110.1   22      -5.0     23     10     $63.9
Knicks    21   61   .262   25.7   21   95.0    2    102.5    27   109.8   20      -7.3     28     14     $67.0

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