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June 25, 2009, 10:48 AM ET
Prospect rankings

by Bradford Doolittle

I have a piece going up later that will explain more of what you see here, but I wanted to post the results of my prospect rating system.

As for what these categories mean: ATH–a projection of a player’s applied athletic ability. The average score is about 15.0 for this group. oRTG–is offensive rating projected for the NBA level, which can also be defined as points created per 100 possessions. USG–is the players projected NBA usage rate. DEF–is the player’s defensive factor rating, with 1.00 being average and the bigger the number, the better. RTG–is the end rating generated by of all this. I wish it stood for something real, like wins or points, but right now, it’s just a rating. Average is 83.2 for these guys.

As a side note, don’t get too worked up about Ricky Rubio’s ratings here. They are based on a very small sample of data.

LIST              ATH      oRTG      USG      DEF       RTG  RANK
DeJuan Blair     25.3     102.8     24.0     1.15     222.5     1
Stephen Curry    17.9     108.1     27.6     1.02     175.0     2
Blake Griffin    22.6      96.0     27.0     0.86     162.7     3
Leo Lyons        24.5      93.2     26.2     0.93     161.8     4
Jeff Teague      24.0      98.4     20.9     0.98     158.8     5
Lester Hudson    18.1     105.0     25.0     1.01     157.8     6
Tyreke Evans     17.2      94.4     24.2     1.23     156.9     7
Ty Lawson        20.4     105.4     21.5     0.95     141.9     8
Ricky Rubio      19.2      90.6     13.9     1.98     141.2     9
Taj Gibson       16.5      94.5     18.9     1.42     137.2    10
Jermaine Taylor  18.9      99.5     28.9     0.79     136.2    11
Gerald Henderson 23.1      95.6     23.8     0.84     129.9    12
Danny Green      14.9      92.6     20.9     1.41     126.7    13
Marcus Thornton  20.0     101.7     25.0     0.77     121.8    14
Jerel McNeal     17.6      95.9     22.3     0.93     118.7    15
DeMarre Carroll  17.4      96.4     21.8     0.98     117.1    16
Tyler Hansbrough 24.0     103.3     25.0     0.64     116.9    17
James Johnson    14.7      91.9     20.2     1.21     112.5    18
James Harden     19.6      98.0     26.0     0.70     106.8    19
Luke Nevill      13.5      98.2     19.5     1.23     105.3    20
Toney Douglas    19.2      98.2     20.9     0.76     100.4    21
Terr. Williams   13.8      91.9     18.2     1.13      93.3    22
Robert Dozier    13.0      96.8     16.6     1.20      92.1    23
Alade Aminu      14.3      85.8     16.3     1.36      90.3    24
Dante Cunningham 13.8      91.2     19.8     0.98      88.9    25
Eric Maynor      15.1     100.3     25.9     0.66      88.4    26
Nick Calathes    15.9      96.9     23.5     0.77      87.2    27
Austin Daye      12.1      95.8     17.5     1.31      85.2    28
Paul Harris      21.9      88.6     18.8     0.71      81.2    29
Jordan Hill      14.3      91.5     21.2     0.90      80.5    30
Hasheem Thabeet  13.1      87.2     10.6     2.04      78.0    31
Curtis Jerrells  17.6      95.2     20.5     0.66      77.3    32
Tyrese Rice      18.4      95.2     21.1     0.61      75.9    33
Ahmad Nivins     15.5      97.6     17.9     0.81      75.1    34
Jrue Holiday     15.0      91.6     18.9     0.96      74.0    35
Patrick Mills    12.4      96.5     21.3     0.89      71.4    36
Sam Young        13.5      91.3     23.4     0.70      70.8    37
B.J. Mullens     13.0      93.4     18.6     0.98      69.7    38
Darren Collison  13.5      99.1     21.8     0.70      62.8    39
Jonas Jerebko    15.4     100.8     13.8     0.89      61.6    40
Rodr. Beaubois   16.2      91.8     15.9     0.84      61.3    41
Lee Cummard      12.2      99.2     20.7     0.69      61.0    42
Jodie Meeks      15.5     101.0     20.9     0.53      59.6    43
DaJuan Summers   13.5      92.0     20.0     0.77      58.9    44
Patrick Beverley 18.9      88.2     17.2     0.63      57.1    45
Earl Clark       11.6      85.3     19.8     0.87      57.0    46
Dionte Christmas 12.8      94.6     22.6     0.59      51.8    47
Jonny Flynn      14.5      94.0     20.0     0.53      48.8    48
Chase Budinger   10.8      94.9     21.0     0.62      48.8    49
Jeff Adrien      15.4      91.8     15.8     0.61      47.4    50
Derrick Brown    10.4      97.8     18.9     0.66      47.0    51
Jon Brockman     18.2      93.3     18.8     0.42      44.5    52
Brandon Jennings 13.2      85.9     18.7     0.71      44.3    53
Josh Heytvelt    12.0     104.8     17.8     0.63      44.2    54
Victor Claver    12.4     101.7     13.5     0.77      42.1    55
Jeff Pendergraph 11.3     102.4     20.5     0.51      39.1    56
Omri Casspi      12.4      88.0     16.4     0.69      37.6    57
Wayne Ellington  12.1      96.0     20.8     0.46      34.8    58
Emir Preldzic    10.0      99.1     17.0     0.67      33.7    59
Nando De Colo    12.7      89.5     19.3     0.49      31.7    60
Demar DeRozan    11.6      91.3     18.9     0.47      31.4    61
Jack McClinton   11.9      99.5     21.4     0.30      26.0    62
Milenko Tepic     9.3     108.9     19.0     0.44      25.6    63
Sergio Llull      9.0     128.4     14.8     0.38      20.6    64
A.J. Price       10.8      91.3     18.4     0.27      17.5    65
Henk Norel        7.4      69.2      9.1     0.47       6.7    66

Just because a player doesn’t rate highly here, or vice versa, you can’t make any definitive statements about these ratings. This is a brand new system and will surely be improved dramatically in the years ahead. However, I do think there are some interesting things here. For instance, in Kevin’s European translations post, he noted how well Sergio Llull’s translations came out. I don’t know if he’ll play in the NBA next season, but if he does, he’ll be an interesting litmus test for the differences between our systems. His projected offensive rating in my system is off-the-charts good, the best in the group. The system also sees him as being very limited athletically, completely unable to get his own shot and lacking big-time on defense. To me, he’s got shooting specialist written all over him, but it’ll be interesting to see how it pans out. It’s also entirely possible my system isn’t picking up on inherent differences between the American and European versions of the game.

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