Basketball Prospectus: Unfiltered Everything Else is Fluff.

April 1, 2009

Prospectus Hoops List: Week of March 29

Filed under: Uncategorized — Bradford Doolittle @ 10:36 am

Here are the top four reasons why this week’s Hoops List is again going straight to Unfiltered:

  1. The Missouri Tigers made the Elite 8!
  2. Baseball season is approaching fast.
  3. Realtors have kicked me out of my house about three times a day this week.
  4. The college coaching carousel took Mike Anderson for a spin, only to leave him in the same place (albeit quite a bit richer).

Alas, the window has closed to get a fully-realized list out this week. I just spent three hours updating NBAPET with the last nine days’ worth of NBA games, so at the very least, you’ll have the raw rankings. Next week, we’ll try again.

(Statistics through March 29)

Rank. (Last week) Team (Power rating) [Win pace / Pythagorean win pace / Preseason projecion ]

1. (1) Cleveland Cavaliers (66.3) [ 67 / 65 / 44 ]
Rankings: NET: 1; OFF: 4; DEF: 3; PACE: 25

2. (2) Boston Celtics (62.4) [ 61 / 62 / 63 ]
Rankings: NET: 2; OFF: 5; DEF: 1; PACE: 20

3. (3) Los Angeles Lakers (61.5) [ 65 / 60 / 49 ]
Rankings: NET: 4; OFF: 2; DEF: 6; PACE: 5

4. (4) Orlando Magic (60.1) [ 61 / 60 / 43 ]
Rankings: NET: 3; OFF: 6; DEF: 2; PACE: 12

5. (5) Portland Trail Blazers (52.3) [ 51 / 52 / 38 ]
Rankings: NET: 5; OFF: 3; DEF: 17; PACE: 29

6. (8) Denver Nuggets (52.2) [ 53 / 49 / 43 ]
Rankings: NET: 9; OFF: 8; DEF: 10; PACE: 6

7. (7) San Antonio Spurs (52.0) [ 53 / 52 / 55 ]
Rankings: NET: 6; OFF: 13; DEF: 5; PACE: 27

8. (6) Houston Rockets (51.9) [ 53 / 52 / 61 ]
Rankings: NET: 7; OFF: 16; DEF: 4; PACE: 19

9. (10) Utah Jazz (50.2) [ 51 / 51 / 50 ]
Rankings: NET: 8; OFF: 7; DEF: 9; PACE: 10

10. (9) New Orleans Hornets (49.0) [ 51 / 47 / 45 ]
Rankings: NET: 10; OFF: 11; DEF: 8; PACE: 28

11. (11) Atlanta Hawks (47.6) [ 47 / 46 / 38 ]
Rankings: NET: 12; OFF: 10; DEF: 12; PACE: 24

12. (12) Dallas Mavericks (46.4) [ 48 / 44 / 51 ]
Rankings: NET: 13; OFF: 9; DEF: 15; PACE: 15

13. (13) Phoenix Suns (45.4) [ 44 / 45 / 49 ]
Rankings: NET: 11; OFF: 1; DEF: 23; PACE: 4

14. (14) Miami Heat (42.7) [ 43 / 41 / 35 ]
Rankings: NET: 15; OFF: 17; DEF: 13; PACE: 21

15. (15) Philadelphia 76ers (41.7) [ 42 / 42 / 38 ]
Rankings: NET: 14; OFF: 19; DEF: 11; PACE: 18

16. (17) Chicago Bulls (40.1) [ 39 / 39 / 43 ]
Rankings: NET: 17; OFF: 18; DEF: 18; PACE: 9

17. (16) Detroit Pistons (39.6) [ 40 / 39 / 55 ]
Rankings: NET: 16; OFF: 22; DEF: 16; PACE: 30

18. (19) Charlotte Bobcats (36.6) [ 37 / 38 / 38 ]
Rankings: NET: 18; OFF: 27; DEF: 7; PACE: 26

19. (20) Indiana Pacers (36.0) [ 34 / 36 / 41 ]
Rankings: NET: 20; OFF: 20; DEF: 19; PACE: 3

20. (18) Milwaukee Bucks (35.8) [ 34 / 36 / 31 ]
Rankings: NET: 19; OFF: 23; DEF: 14; PACE: 11

21. (21) New Jersey Nets (33.9) [ 33 / 33 / 38 ]
Rankings: NET: 22; OFF: 14; DEF: 24; PACE: 22

22. (22) New York Knicks (33.0) [ 32 / 34 / 33 ]
Rankings: NET: 23; OFF: 15; DEF: 25; PACE: 2

23. (23) Toronto Raptors (32.7) [ 31 / 32 / 42 ]
Rankings: NET: 21; OFF: 21; DEF: 21; PACE: 16

24. (24) Golden State Warriors (29.3) [ 28 / 31 / 35 ]
Rankings: NET: 24; OFF: 12; DEF: 28; PACE: 1

25. (25) Minnesota Timberwolves (26.2) [ 23 / 27 / 26 ]
Rankings: NET: 25; OFF: 24; DEF: 27; PACE: 14

26. (26) Oklahoma City Thunder (23.0) [ 22 / 25 / 23 ]
Rankings: NET: 26; OFF: 30; DEF: 20; PACE: 8

27. (27) Memphis Grizzlies (21.6) [ 20 / 23 / 19 ]
Rankings: NET: 27; OFF: 28; DEF: 22; PACE: 23

28. (28) Los Angeles Clippers (19.8) [ 19 / 18 / 33 ]
Rankings: NET: 29; OFF: 29; DEF: 26; PACE: 13

29. (29) Washington Wizards (19.1) [ 18 / 20 / 32 ]
Rankings: NET: 30; OFF: 26; DEF: 29; PACE: 17

30. (30) Sacramento Kings (18.7) [ 18 / 20 / 39 ]
Rankings: NET: 28; OFF: 25; DEF: 30; PACE: 7

Definitions:

NBAPET = stands for National Basketball Association Projection, Evaluation and Tracking = A database and system of metrics for analyzing professional basketball.

gRATE = a one-game metric that measures a player’s offensive and defensive contribution and expresses it as a net point total. The sum of a team’s gRATE figures for a game will equal its actual point differential for that game.

Adjusted winning percentage (AWP) = ((home wins x 0.6)+(road wins x 1.4)) / (((home wins x 0.6)+(road wins x 1.4)) + ((home losses x .1.4)+(road losses x 0.6)))

LUCK = the difference between a team’s 82-game win pace and its 82-game Pythagorean win pace.

Opponents winning percentage (OWP) = aggregate percentage of games won for each team’s opponents, based on the number of times the team has faced that opponent.

Pythagorean winning percentage (PYTH) = uses the basketball-reference formula of Games x (Points scored^14) / ((Points scored^14) + (Points allowed^14))

Power rating = (((PYTH + AWP)/2)*(OWP/.500)) x 82

WP82 = wins produced per 82 games, adjusted for playing time

WP3K = wins produced per 3,000 minutes

RANKINGS: NET = net efficiency ratio; OFF – offensive efficiency; DEF – defensive efficiency; PACE: average possessions per game

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