Basketball Prospectus: Unfiltered Everything Else is Fluff.

March 25, 2009

Prospectus Hoops List: Week of March 22

Filed under: Uncategorized — Bradford Doolittle @ 1:02 pm

This week’s Hoops List was one of many items that fell by the wayside as my writing time was sucked into a domestic vortex. You ever get a house ready to put on the market? If so, you know what I’m talking about. If not, well, I have three words for you: rent, rent, rent. In any event, if anyone is looking to move into midtown Kansas City, I know of a great, 4 bedroom/2 bath place in the city’s best urban neighborhood. Shoot me a message.

For continuity’s sake, I’m putting up this week’s rankings sans commentary so we can all put this experience behind us and move ahead with the Sweet 16 & Elite 8. Next Tuesday, the Hoops List will return to its regularly-scheduled format. Unless, of course, someone walks in with a big wad of cash and wants to move in over the weekend.

Questions and comments.
(Statistics through March 22)

Rank. (Last week) Team (Power rating) [Win pace / Pythagorean win pace / Preseason projecion ]

1. (1) Cleveland Cavaliers (65.9) [ 66 / 64 / 44 ]
Rankings: NET: 1; OFF: 4; DEF: 3; PACE: 25

2. (2) Boston Celtics (62.3) [ 61 / 62 / 63 ]
Rankings: NET: 2; OFF: 5; DEF: 2; PACE: 19

3. (3) Los Angeles Lakers (61.7) [ 65 / 60 / 49 ]
Rankings: NET: 4; OFF: 2; DEF: 6; PACE: 5

4. (4) Orlando Magic (59.4) [ 60 / 60 / 43 ]
Rankings: NET: 3; OFF: 6; DEF: 1; PACE: 12

5. (6) Portland Trail Blazers (52.6) [ 51 / 51 / 38 ]
Rankings: NET: 5; OFF: 3; DEF: 17; PACE: 29

6. (8) Houston Rockets (52.3) [ 53 / 52 / 61 ]
Rankings: NET: 7; OFF: 16; DEF: 5; PACE: 20

7. (5) San Antonio Spurs (51.9) [ 53 / 52 / 55 ]
Rankings: NET: 6; OFF: 14; DEF: 4; PACE: 27

8. (7) Denver Nuggets (51.5) [ 52 / 49 / 43 ]
Rankings: NET: 10; OFF: 11; DEF: 8; PACE: 6

9. (9) New Orleans Hornets (49.8) [ 52 / 49 / 45 ]
Rankings: NET: 9; OFF: 9; DEF: 7; PACE: 28

10. (10) Utah Jazz (49.7) [ 51 / 51 / 50 ]
Rankings: NET: 8; OFF: 7; DEF: 11; PACE: 11

11. (12) Atlanta Hawks (47.7) [ 48 / 46 / 38 ]
Rankings: NET: 12; OFF: 10; DEF: 12; PACE: 24

12. (13) Dallas Mavericks (46.7) [ 49 / 44 / 51 ]
Rankings: NET: 13; OFF: 8; DEF: 15; PACE: 15

13. (14) Phoenix Suns (46.1) [ 45 / 47 / 49 ]
Rankings: NET: 11; OFF: 1; DEF: 23; PACE: 4

14. (11) Miami Heat (43.0) [ 43 / 40 / 35 ]
Rankings: NET: 15; OFF: 17; DEF: 14; PACE: 21

15. (15) Philadelphia 76ers (41.7) [ 42 / 42 / 38 ]
Rankings: NET: 14; OFF: 21; DEF: 10; PACE: 17

16. (16) Detroit Pistons (39.8) [ 40 / 39 / 55 ]
Rankings: NET: 16; OFF: 18; DEF: 16; PACE: 30

17. (17) Chicago Bulls (39.1) [ 37 / 37 / 43 ]
Rankings: NET: 18; OFF: 20; DEF: 18; PACE: 9

18. (18) Milwaukee Bucks (36.8) [ 35 / 37 / 31 ]
Rankings: NET: 17; OFF: 22; DEF: 13; PACE: 10

19. (19) Charlotte Bobcats (36.1) [ 36 / 37 / 38 ]
Rankings: NET: 19; OFF: 27; DEF: 9; PACE: 26

20. (21) Indiana Pacers (35.8) [ 33 / 35 / 41 ]
Rankings: NET: 20; OFF: 19; DEF: 19; PACE: 3

21. (22) New Jersey Nets (34.4) [ 35 / 34 / 38 ]
Rankings: NET: 21; OFF: 13; DEF: 24; PACE: 22

22. (20) New York Knicks (33.5) [ 33 / 34 / 33 ]
Rankings: NET: 23; OFF: 15; DEF: 26; PACE: 2

23. (23) Toronto Raptors (31.5) [ 29 / 31 / 42 ]
Rankings: NET: 22; OFF: 23; DEF: 21; PACE: 16

24. (24) Golden State Warriors (29.9) [ 29 / 32 / 35 ]
Rankings: NET: 24; OFF: 12; DEF: 28; PACE: 1

25. (25) Minnesota Timberwolves (26.3) [ 23 / 28 / 26 ]
Rankings: NET: 26; OFF: 24; DEF: 27; PACE: 14

26. (26) Oklahoma City Thunder (23.8) [ 23 / 26 / 23 ]
Rankings: NET: 25; OFF: 28; DEF: 20; PACE: 8

27. (27) Memphis Grizzlies (21.1) [ 20 / 23 / 19 ]
Rankings: NET: 27; OFF: 29; DEF: 22; PACE: 23

28. (29) Los Angeles Clippers (19.2) [ 19 / 18 / 33 ]
Rankings: NET: 28; OFF: 30; DEF: 25; PACE: 13

29. (28) Washington Wizards (19.1) [ 18 / 19 / 32 ]
Rankings: NET: 30; OFF: 26; DEF: 30; PACE: 18

30. (30) Sacramento Kings (18.6) [ 17 / 19 / 39 ]
Rankings: NET: 29; OFF: 25; DEF: 29; PACE: 7

Definitions:

NBAPET = stands for National Basketball Association Projection, Evaluation and Tracking = A database and system of metrics for analyzing professional basketball.

gRATE = a one-game metric that measures a player’s offensive and defensive contribution and expresses it as a net point total. The sum of a team’s gRATE figures for a game will equal its actual point differential for that game.

Adjusted winning percentage (AWP) = ((home wins x 0.6)+(road wins x 1.4)) / (((home wins x 0.6)+(road wins x 1.4)) + ((home losses x .1.4)+(road losses x 0.6)))

LUCK = the difference between a team’s 82-game win pace and its 82-game Pythagorean win pace.

Opponents winning percentage (OWP) = aggregate percentage of games won for each team’s opponents, based on the number of times the team has faced that opponent.

Pythagorean winning percentage (PYTH) = uses the basketball-reference formula of Games x (Points scored^14) / ((Points scored^14) + (Points allowed^14))

Power rating = (((PYTH + AWP)/2)*(OWP/.500)) x 82

WP82 = wins produced per 82 games, adjusted for playing time

WP3K = wins produced per 3,000 minutes

RANKINGS: NET = net efficiency ratio; OFF – offensive efficiency; DEF – defensive efficiency; PACE: average possessions per game

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