Basketball Prospectus: Unfiltered Everything Else is Fluff.

January 10, 2009

Big 12 tip-off day

Filed under: Uncategorized — Bradford Doolittle @ 1:17 pm

For my day gig, I wrote up a preview of the Big 12 hoops season, which tips off today. Everything was based on Ken Pomeroy’s statistics, which I frankly hadn’t paid much attention to up to this point in the season. To my surprise, Pomeroy’s system ranks Missouri as the Big 12’s top team entering conference play.

The Tigers haven’t earned their way into the Big Dance since 2003, the longest drought since the 1970s. MU is led by the senior forward duo of DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons but the improvement in MU comes from their seven newcomers, who have combined to give Mizzou one of the deepest rosters in D1. Over 42% of their minutes have gone to non-starters and for the most part, these are all legit major-conference players that are largely interchangeable. The depth plays to Mike Anderson’s preference for a frenetic, pressing defensive scheme.

What Missouri lacks is a go-to offensive player that can create high-quality shots when the offense is bogging down and the defense isn’t creating the turnovers that feed the offensive attack. Nevertheless, this is undoubtably Anderson’s finest team in Columbia. Do I really think they’ll go 12-4 and win the conference? Not really. Not until they notch a high-quality win that atones for the egg the Tigers laid on national television against Illinois a couple of weeks ago.

Still, MU should jump back into the NCAA tourney fray this season, one of six or seven Big 12 teams that could get there. Any one of those six or seven could win the regular season, led by most observer’s favorites Oklahoma and Texas. Anyway, we’ll start to get things sorted out today. Here are Pomeroy’s projections for today’s games:

Saturday, Jan. 10
(105) Iowa St. at (22) Texas             UT  68-54 [ 93% ]
(19) Kansas at (27) Michigan St.         MSU 75-72 [ 62% ]
(11) Missouri at (75) Nebraska           MU  74-67 [ 76% ]
(18) Oklahoma at (14) Kansas St.         KSU 78-72 [ 71% ]
(87) Texas A&M at (42) Oklahoma St.      OSU 79-69 [ 84% ]
(109) Texas Tech at (30) Baylor          BU  93-76 [ 92% ]
(National rankings in parenthesis)
[ Percentage chance projected winner wins game in brackets ]

No Comments

No comments yet.

RSS feed for comments on this post.

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.

Powered by WordPress