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Neil Paine author archives.


June 27, 2012

Premium Article Making the Right Choice: NBA Drafts

by Neil Paine

How often do NBA teams pick the best player available in the draft? We've crunched the historical numbers.

May 30, 2012

Market Advantage: New York vs. L.A.

by Neil Paine

The Los Angeles Lakers have been able to leverage their status as the preeminent team in one of the NBA's biggest markets into decades of consistent success. So why haven't the New York Knicks been able to do the same?

May 21, 2012

Most Dominant: Ranking the Champs

by Neil Paine

Evaluating the most dominant postseason runs of the past 26 years based on their performance, strength of schedule and how they fared in the most important games.

April 18, 2012

Coach of the Year: Quantified

by Neil Paine

In practice, the NBA's Coach of the Year award mostly seems to be determined by which team most exceeds expectations. In setting those expectations based on past player performance, Neil finds an unlikely leader on the Bayou.

April 11, 2012

Premium Article Early Entrants: The Guys Who Didn't Make It

by Neil Paine

After Mavericks owner Mark Cuban declared there were hundreds of "Lenny Cookes," a look at the players who declared early entry out of high school or after one season in college and failed to establish themselves in the NBA shows they always faced long odds of making it.

April 4, 2012

Treadmill: Breaking the Cycle of Mediocrity

by Neil Paine

Despite some suggestions to the contrary, Neil says that the true path to the top of the NBA starts at the bottom.

March 30, 2012

Premium Article UK vs. the NBA: Another Look

by Neil Paine

Neil Paine uses the average performance of past NBA rookies by draft position to estimate Kentucky's chances of beating an NBA team and finds that the Wildcats would be on relatively even footing with the league's worst.

March 22, 2012

Premium Article Disappearing Act: The Lost College to NBA Star

by Neil Paine

Even after the NBA's age limit forced virtually all star prospects to spend a year matriculating on campus, college stars aren't achieving the same kind of success in the pros.

March 13, 2012

Finding Value: Underrated Teams

by Neil Paine

Using a variety of college hoops metrics to simulate the tourney and comparing their projected bracket points to expectations for each seed shows some opportunities for value as you make your picks.

February 24, 2012

Premium Article Special Specialist: Ryan Anderson

by Neil Paine

Ryan Anderson may still be a three-point specialist, but by one measure he's having the best season ever by such a player.

February 17, 2012

Premium Article Best Fit: Lineup Combinations

by Neil Paine

To examine the important concept of fit, Neil constructs hypothetical lineups with usage rates of exactly 100 percent to see which players fit well with others and which don't.

February 10, 2012

Remarkable Numbers: How LeBron's Season Stacks Up

by Neil Paine

During his second season in Miami, LeBron James is scoring more efficiently than ever before during his MVP career. How does James' performance compare to the high standard he set in Cleveland?

January 26, 2012

Starting Fives: Worst of Last Quarter Century

by Neil Paine

Inspired by the lineup Paul Silas sent out for the Bobcats on Wednesday, Neil looks at some confounding configurations.

January 19, 2012

Premium Article Head to Head: Ranking the Point Guards

by Neil Paine

Neil uses head-to-head matchups from the past year to rate the NBA's lead guards.

January 11, 2012

No Assists: Knicks Missing Playmaker

by Neil Paine

Despite the prolific duo of Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire, the Knicks have been no better than average on offense this season against a weak schedule. Neil Paine points the finger at the team's poor playmaking.

January 2, 2012

Premium Article Linear Weights: Ranking the Formulas

by Neil Paine

Because of their simplicity of use, we'll probably never get completely away from adding up the good stuff and subtracting the bad stuff. Neil takes a look at some of these time-tested player rating formulas to determine which one rises above the pack.

December 16, 2011

Premium Article Transaction Notes: Thoughts on This Week's Moves

by Neil Paine

Prospectus newcomer Neil Paine checks in with some statistical errata on many of the biggest moves since an abbreviated free agency period opened a week ago.

December 9, 2011

Premium Article Star Power: Championship-Caliber Talent

by Neil Paine

Conventional wisdom has it that a superstar is necessary to win a title. Based on history, just how good must a team's best player be to lead them to a championship?

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