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There's one factor that wasn't considered in the SCHOENE projections that appeared in this year's Pro Basketball Prospectus: schedule. Ordinarily, we're safe ignoring the schedule because it makes so little difference in the NBA. Nearly two-thirds of the schedule is common for every team, and just four out of 82 are unique among conference foes. Not so this year, when the 66-game schedule means teams will face most opponents from the opposite conference just once.
It's hard not to detect some bias in the schedule toward matchups involving top teams, and we have some statistical evidence of it. Normally, the best teams have the easiest schedules for an intuitive reason that's easy to overlook: They can't play themselves. Not so this year. Bradford Doolittle has a program built to simulate the entire schedule, accounting for home/road and back-to-back factors. He ran our near-final SCHOENE projections (they're through last night, meaning that nearly all key moves are in there, including the Brook Lopez injury) 10,000 times to yield the following projections.
There are a few issues worth noting here. One is that the projection gives us relative odds of important events (playoff spot, No. 1 seed, top record in NBA) to highlight the unpredictability inherent in a season. The other is the "Sch" column, which shows how much lower the team's win projection is here than in straight-up SCHOENE. In part, extreme teams will tend to get pulled toward .500 in such an exercise, but noting the Lakers' low value makes it clear that something else is at play. Also note that West's difficulty relative to the East means that East teams, especially in the lottery, have an advantage of sorts over their West foes. It's a pyrrhic advantage, though, given the strength of this year's draft.
EAST PLAYOFFS
Team Win% W Play Con NBA Sch ORtg DRtg
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Miami .727 48.0 1.000 .517 .409 -2.1 114.2 ( 1) 105.1 ( 4)
Chicago .697 46.0 1.000 .323 .239 -1.2 111.3 ( 5) 103.4 ( 1)
Orlando .611 40.3 .997 .084 .045 -0.5 109.7 (14) 105.3 ( 5)
New York .545 36.0 .940 .021 .008 0.5 112.1 ( 3) 110.1 (23)
Boston .542 35.8 .940 .023 .008 -0.1 106.4 (24) 104.8 ( 3)
Philadelphia .539 35.6 .924 .021 .007 0.1 107.2 (20) 105.4 ( 6)
Indiana .492 32.5 .686 .006 .001 0.4 109.5 (15) 109.2 (18)
Milwaukee .483 31.9 .587 .003 .001 0.5 104.2 (30) 104.6 ( 2)
Note that the Celtics, Knicks and Sixers are all basically tied atop the Atlantic Division. In this case, schedule could make the difference, and stunningly New York has the easiest slate of the three.
EAST LOTTERY
Team Win% W Play Con NBA Sch ORtg DRtg
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Atlanta .471 31.1 .460 .002 .001 0.3 106.7 (22) 107.9 (13)
New Jersey .436 28.8 .169 .000 .000 1.3 106.9 (19) 109.8 (20)
Charlotte .430 28.4 .137 .000 .000 1.1 106.2 (26) 108.6 (15)
Toronto .429 28.3 .129 .000 .000 1.4 110.4 (10) 112.9 (30)
Detroit .395 26.1 .032 .000 .000 0.8 106.4 (25) 109.9 (21)
Cleveland .338 22.3 .002 .000 .000 1.3 105.1 (28) 110.5 (26)
Washington .295 19.5 .000 .000 .000 1.2 104.9 (29) 111.6 (29)
The Nets' projection dropped 2.5 wins after Brook Lopez's injury and the trade for Mehmet Okur, which severely hampers their chances of making a run at the playoffs.
WEST PLAYOFFS
Team Win% W Play Con NBA Sch ORtg DRtg
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Oklahoma City .612 40.4 .992 .286 .096 -1.4 114.2 ( 2) 109.1 (17)
L.A. Clippers .602 39.7 .984 .214 .068 -0.5 111.9 ( 4) 108.2 (14)
San Antonio .580 38.3 .963 .145 .041 -0.4 110.6 ( 9) 107.3 (11)
Portland .568 37.5 .938 .111 .028 -0.3 110.3 (11) 107.3 (12)
Dallas .558 36.8 .907 .099 .022 -0.9 109.7 (13) 106.9 ( 8)
Denver .526 34.7 .754 .049 .010 -0.5 111.2 ( 6) 109.5 (19)
L.A. Lakers .508 33.5 .600 .035 .006 -0.6 107.7 (17) 106.9 ( 7)
Minnesota .506 33.4 .569 .021 .004 -0.2 111.1 ( 7) 110.4 (24)
As much as the Thunder is the favorite, this conference is very much wide open, with five teams given at least a one in 10 shot of making the NBA Finals.
WEST LOTTERY
Team Win% W Play Con NBA Sch ORtg DRtg
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Houston .494 32.6 .433 .015 .003 0.4 110.9 ( 8) 110.4 (25)
Memphis .489 32.3 .414 .017 .003 -0.1 107.4 (18) 107.1 (10)
New Orleans .471 31.1 .245 .006 .000 0.0 106.5 (23) 107.0 ( 9)
Utah .456 30.1 .149 .002 .000 0.2 109.9 (12) 110.9 (27)
Phoenix .421 27.8 .036 .000 .000 0.7 108.7 (16) 111.1 (28)
Sacramento .392 25.9 .010 .000 .000 0.0 106.0 (27) 109.0 (16)
Golden State .385 25.4 .007 .000 .000 -0.5 107.1 (21) 110.0 (22)
The one move of note that had not gone final by the time of these projections was the Rockets signing Samuel Dalembert. When that happens, I expect the Rockets to become favorites to reach the playoffs. It's worth noting that, as down as I am on Memphis, the Grizzlies still made the playoffs nearly half the time. Things are still very open in the bottom half of the playoff race in the West.
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Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
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The Problem with Pitt (12/26)
2 comments have been left for this article. 
Kevin,
I know that quants strongly prefer margin of victory measures over wins or even previous matchups. But I wonder if there isn't an even better predictor that might be similar to the geometric mean that some folks use in finance. The nice thing about geometric mean is that it takes into account strings of losses - so an asset that falls 3% in value three days in a row once in a year is penalized more than an asset that losses 3% on three days evenly distributed through the year.
Have you heard of any similar measure for margin of victory? One that would severely penalize teams whose losses tend to cluster? It strikes me that such a measure might be a great predictor of playoff success.
I haven't seen such a thing, but my worry would be that it would penalize teams with a costly, short-term injury. For example, last year the Mavericks struggled badly during the week or two Dirk Nowitzki was out of the lineup. But not only would weighting those performances more heavily not be more accurate, it would be misleading when it comes to assessing a healthy Dallas team.
I don't think there's an analogous situation where an asset is temporarily devalued with no long-term impact.