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June 16, 2011
Where the Stars Are
Recruiting and Geography

by Drew Cannon

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When it comes to recruiting and geography, there are two questions that matter to coaching staffs. Where are the players? And is it worth my time to try to convince them to come to my school? Everything else that is remotely interesting or relevant is an offshoot of one of these questions.

Let's talk about the second question first. It's true that, even among players already ranked in the top 100, higher rated prospects are often willing to travel farther for college. Obviously, there's no reason to believe that top 10 players are inherently a different group than the next 90, to the point that they'd be willing to move across larger distances. Instead, coaches from farther away think it's worth their time to work their recruiting magic on the top 10 guys. There's absolutely no reason to believe this doesn't continue to be true all the way down to Division III, and this creates an analytical problem.

We can look at all the numbers we want, but, in the end it's all a two-way street. For example, Louisiana prospects have an abnormally high rate of staying in-state (59 percent). This could be because Louisiana culture is such that prospects prefer to stay close to home. It could also be because there just isn't much of an out-of-state presence in the state. To take the numbers of this type from being interesting to being useful, one needs to understand that these tangles exist. I am not capable of untangling them. Not today, at least. Ideas are welcome. Tons of raw data on the subject can be found in Appendix A, below.

So, we come back to the question: Where are the players? First, let's talk international. For pure talent available vs. level of (American college) competition, there's no better place to look than abroad. Saint Mary's Australian pipeline has certainly been good to them. Gonzaga likes to work Canada, and German Elias Harris was an outstanding freshman find two years ago. So why is it that FIBA's No. 1 ranked nation, Argentina, donated just one prospect to the NCAA in 2010 (Juan Fernandez of Temple)? Same for New Zealand, ranked 13th in the world, and Anglophones to boot. That's not to say it's surprising that there are so few international prospects here, but, for pure untapped talent, that's still your best bet.

Turning stateside, I tried to determine which areas are being over-recruited and which are being under-recruited by running a multiple regression. You can find the nuts and bolts in Appendix B, below, but it essentially works out like this: I used the number of high-major players from a state to estimate the number of total players from a state, then adjusted for walk-ons by using the number of Division I schools in the state and allowed for the possibility of a down cycle for each state by using state population. So, if you think that one of the states listed here as "under-recruited" is not, you're essentially saying one of three things:

1. The state is top-heavy. There are a bunch of high-major talents, but not much else. Or, the top players in the area end up at high-major schools but aren't really high-major talents.
2. Walk-ons in that state are rarely in-state prospects.
3. The state is churning out more high-major talent than usual right now, which makes its overall talent pool look like it should hold more.

The opposite arguments would thus be held to apply for states listed as "over-recruited."

There look to be ten states that, with some level of confidence, we can claim are under-recruited: Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Michigan, New York, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Washington, and Wisconsin. New York and South Carolina top the list (both being under their expected number of Division I prospects by 30 or more), with Oregon and Washington also seeing very significant differences. Let's take a closer look at a few of these potentially under-recruited locales.

New York
This one makes a great deal of sense to me. If you take New York City out of the population of New York, you still have about as many people as Kentucky, Louisiana, or South Carolina can claim. But if you're going on a recruiting trip to "New York," you're going to NYC. There are so many players to see there that it seems wrong to avoid it. The DaJuan Colemans and Tobias Harrises of the world still make themselves known, but the mid-major talents of the rest of the state can be easily forgotten.

South Carolina
There's a similar dynamic at work here. The traditional recruiting swing through the South has key stops in Georgia (234 D-I players), North Carolina (206), Florida (213), Virginia (156), and Tennessee (138). South Carolina only had 63 players in D-I last year, but 18 of them were high-major. For comparison, the above states (who had between two and six times as many total players as SC), sent 60, 37, 39, 32, and 25 high-major players, respectively. Those are numbers that suggest untapped talent in the forgotten South Carolina. (Kentucky, Alabama, and Arkansas can make similar claims.)

Oregon and Washington
These neighboring states share a common recruiting affliction: the sheer size of California. A "west coast" trip can be quite easily confined to the Golden State alone, with no ventures further north. Oklahoma has the same problem with regard to Texas. Michigan and Wisconsin are somewhat pushed aside by the standard Illinois-Indiana-Ohio swing.

It's really pretty simple. If you want to find the players other people don't know about, go places the other people don't see. Take a look around upstate New York or Oregon or Wisconsin instead of NYC and LA and Chicago.

On the other side of the coin we have solid evidence that five states are over-recruited: Florida, Minnesota, New Jersey, North Carolina, and Ohio. Of these five, one really stands out.

New Jersey
Much of New Jersey's population is concentrated around New York City, meaning that when coaches recruit the NYC area they get to everyone from Jersey (much more so than the overall state of New York). And all the people not in NYC are in Trenton, which is, for all intents and purposes, a suburb of Philadelphia. In other words the kids in Jersey will be tracked down one way or another. Actually, Minnesota's the same way -- its talent is conveniently concentrated around one specific place. If you've scouted the Twin Cities, you've scouted Minnesota. Check out these population density maps.

North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida
All three have multiple major recruiting events. Every decent player from these states will probably be there. And all three have at least 13 (!) D-I programs in-state. One of those programs will have a clue about a decent player who's not at the events. Simply put, the paths in these states are very well-traveled.

There's evidence that Nevada is likely over-recruited as well, but the sample size is so small I don't trust it. (Only Elijah Johnson of Kansas was a high-major Nevadan in 2010.) Other states with lots of events (e.g., Texas, California) are so big they can't possibly draw everyone from the whole state. Similarly, Illinois' biggest events are Chicago-based, and the large downstate population group closer to St. Louis doesn't flock to them.

These aren't necessarily the only states that the numbers spit out. These are the states that the numbers spit out that make sense and were difficult to refute. For example, Tennessee was a state pegged as over-recruited, but that's because Memphis, the university, picks up so many in-state high-major talents. (The Tigers had eight Tennesseans in 2010.) This means that Tennessee's output of high-major players looks low, since Memphis is still considered mid-major, and so the state's talent level is underestimated by the system.

Drew Cannon is a college student and a regular contributor to Basketball Prospectus. Follow him on Twitter at @DrewCannon1.

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Appendix A: Raw Geographic Data

OVERALL BREAKDOWN
In-State: 1624 (34.4%)
Border State: 981 (20.8%)
In Region: 555 (11.8%)
Out of Region: 1168 (24.7%)
International: 393 (8.3%)

# of Division I players:
California (412), Texas (337), New York (264), Illinois (240), Georgia (234), Florida (213), North Carolina (206), New Jersey (160), Pennsylvania (158), Virginia (156), Indiana (152), Ohio (150), Maryland (145), Tennessee (138), Louisiana (126), Michigan (121), Alabama (87), Missouri (70), Washington (69), Minnesota (65), South Carolina (63), Mississippi (57), Wisconsin (56), Massachusetts (53), Colorado (48), Connecticut (47), Arkansas (46), Arizona (45), Kentucky (44), Oregon (43), Oklahoma (42), Utah (36), Kansas (33), Iowa (32), Nevada (29), DC (21), Delaware (16), South Dakota (16), Nebraska (13), West Virginia (13), Rhode Island (12), New Hampshire (11), Maine (8), New Mexico (8), North Dakota (8), Idaho (7), Montana (5), Wyoming (5), Alaska (4), Hawaii (2), Vermont (2)

Top Division I player-producing countries: Canada (64), Australia (37), United Kingdon (33), Serbia (21), France (17), Nigeria (15), Senegal (14), Lithuania (13), Cameroon (12), Puerto Rico (12), Brazil (11), Croatia (11), Germany (11)

# Division I Schools:
California (24), New York (22), Texas (21), North Carolina (19), Pennsylvania (14), Virginia (14), Florida (13), Illinois (13), Louisiana (13), Ohio (13), South Carolina (12), Tennessee (12), Indiana (10), Alabama (9), Maryland (9), New Jersey (8), Connecticut (7), Georgia (7), Michigan (7), Kentucky (6), Massachusetts (6), Mississippi (6), Utah (6), Arkansas (5), Colorado (5), Missouri (5), Washington (5), DC (4), Iowa (4), Oklahoma (4), Oregon (4), Rhode Island (4), Wisconsin (4), Arizona (3), Idaho (3), Kansas (3), Delaware (2), Montana (2), Nebraska (2), Nevada (2), New Hampshire (2), New Mexico (2), North Dakota (2), South Dakota (2), West Virginia (2), Hawaii (1), Maine (1), Minnesota (1), Vermont (1), Wyoming (1), Alaska (0)

# HM Schools
0: Alaska, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Wyoming
1: Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, DC, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Rhode Island, West Virginia
2: Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin
3: Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania
4: California, Florida, North Carolina, Texas

Likeliest Conference Location of Recruits by State (any missing states didn't have enough prospects to draw significant conclusions about):
AL: SEC (17, 19.5%), A-Sun (11, 12.6%), SWAC (11, 12.6%), Sun Belt (9, 10.3%)
AR: Sun Belt (10, 21.7%), SEC (8, 17.3%), Ohio Valley (7, 15.2%)
CA: Big West (90, 21.8%), Pac-10 (49, 11.9%), West Coast (44, 10.7%), WAC (34, 8.3%), Big Sky (26, 6.3%), Mountain West (24, 5.8%) -> only conference with zero is Big South
CO: Big Sky (8, 16.7%), Mountain West (8, 16.7%), Sun Belt (7, 14.5%)
CT: NEC (12, 25.5%), A-10 (10, 21.3%)
FL: A-Sun (36, 16.9%), C-USA (17, 8.0%), Sun Belt (17, 8.0%), Big South (15, 7.0%), only three with zero -> Big Sky, Missouri Valley, West Coast
GA: A-Sun (27, 11.5%), SoCon (24, 10.3%), SEC (23, 9.8%), ACC (22, 9.4%), only four with zero -> Big West, MAC, NEC, WAC
IA: Missouri Valley (11, 34.4%)
IL: Big Ten (26, 10.8%), Horizon (24, 10.0%), Missouri Valley (24, 10.0%), MAC (18, 7.5%), Great West (15, 6.3%), only one with zero -> Big South
IN: Big Ten (25, 16.5%), Horizon (22, 14.5%), MAC (19, 12.5%), Summit (17, 11.2%), Missouri Valley (13, 8.6%)
KS: Big 12 (9, 27.3%), Missouri Valley (9, 27.3%)
KY: Ohio Valley (9, 20.5%), SEC (8, 18.2%)
LA: Southland (36, 28.6%), Sun Belt (24, 19.0%), SEC (13, 10.3%), C-USA (10, 7.9%)
MA: America East (10, 18.9%), Ivy (10, 18.9%), NEC (7, 13.2%)
MD: MEAC (30, 20.7%), Big East (12, 8.3%), NEC (12, 8.3%), A-10 (11, 7.6%), ACC (11, 7.6%), CAA (11, 7.6%), only three with zero -> Big Sky, Mountain West, West Coast
ME: America East (5, 62.5%)
MI: MAC (31, 25.6%), Big Ten (20, 16.5%), Summit (12, 9.9%)
MN: Big Ten (11, 16.9%), Summit (11, 16.9%)
MO: Missouri Valley (13, 18.6%)
MS: SWAC (22, 38.6%)
MT: Big Sky (4, 80.0%)
NC: SoCon (30, 14.6%), Big South (26, 12.6%), ACC (24, 11.7%), CAA (23, 11.2%), Independent (19, 9.2%)
ND: Great West (4, 50.0%)
NJ: NEC (28, 17.5%), A-10 (17, 10.6%), Big East (17, 10.6%), MAAC (17, 10.6%)
NV: Mountain West (8, 27.6%), WAC (6, 20.7%)
NY: Big East (43, 16.3%), MAAC (40, 15.2%), NEC (23, 8.7%), CAA (18, 6.8%), onl> y four with zero -> A-Sun, Big South, Missouri Valley, Summit
OH: MAC (32, 21.3%), Big Ten (16, 10.7%), Horizon (16, 10.7%), A-10 (15, 10.0%), only four with zero -> Pac-10, SEC, WAC, West Coast
OK: Big 12 (10, 23.8%)
OR: Pac-10 (14, 32.6%)
PA: A-10 (26, 16.5%), MAAC (19, 12.0%), Big East (17, 10.8%)
SC: SoCon (13, 20.6%), SEC (10, 15.9%), Big South (9, 14.3%)
SD: Summit (7, 43.8%)
TN: Ohio Valley (23, 16.7%), A-Sun (17, 12.3%), SoCon (16, 11.6%), SEC (15, 10.8%), C-USA (14, 10.1%), Sun Belt (12, 8.7%)
TX: Southland (54, 16.0%), Big 12 (43, 12.8%), Sun Belt (28, 8.3%), C-USA (27, 8.0%), only one with zero -> Big West
UT: Mountain West (9, 25.0%), WAC (7, 19.4%), Summit (6, 16.7%)
VA: CAA (22, 14.1%), ACC (17, 10.9%), Big South (16, 10.3%), MEAC (11, 7.1%), SoCon (11, 7.1%)
WA: Big Sky (16, 23.2%), Pac-10 (16, 23.2%), West Coast (10, 14.5%), WAC (9, 13.0%)
WI: Horizon (16, 28.6%), Big Ten (8, 14.3%)
WV: SoCon (5, 38.5%)

Breakdown of HS States by Conference:
A-10: PA (26, 13.3%), NJ (17, 8.7%), NY (16, 8.2%), OH (15, 7.7%), NC (14, 7.1%)
A-Sun: FL (36, 24.5%), GA (27, 18.4%), TN (17, 11.6%), AL (11, 7.5%)
ACC: NC (24, 14.2%), GA (22, 12.9%), VA (17, 10.0%), FL (13, 7.6%), MD (11, 6.5%)
America East: NY (16, 14.2%), NJ (11, 9.7%), MA (10, 8.9%), PA (10, 8.9%)
Big 12: TX (43, 25.9%), CA (10, 6.0%), OK (10, 6.0%), KS (9, 5.4%)
Big East: NY (43, 20.1%), NJ (17, 7.9%), PA (17, 7.9%), IL (13, 6.1%), MD (12, 5.6%)
Big Sky: CA (26, 23.2%), WA (16, 14.3%)
Big South: NC (26, 19.7%), VA (16, 12.1%), FL (15, 11.4%), GA (13, 9.8%)
Big Ten: IL (26, 16.8%), IN (25, 16.1%), MI (20, 12.9%), OH (16, 10.3%)
Big West: CA (90, 70.3%)
C-USA: TX (27, 16.4%), FL (17, 10.3%), TN (14, 8.5%), LA (10, 6.1%), NC (10, 6.1%)
CAA: NC (23, 14.7%), VA (22, 14.1%), NY (18, 11.5%)
Great West: IL (15, 16.7%), TX (14, 15.6%)
Horizon: IL (24, 17.8%), IN (22, 16.3%), OH (16, 11.9%), WI (16, 11.9%)
Independent: NC (19, 19.4%), CA (13, 13.3%), GA (11, 11.2%)
Ivy: CA (18, 14.2%), IL (11, 8.7%), MA (10, 7.9%), NY (10, 7.9%)
MAAC: NY (40, 31.3%), PA (19, 14.8%), NJ (17, 13.3%)
MAC: OH (32, 19.5%), MI (31, 18.9%), IN (19, 11.6%), IL (18, 11.0%)
MEAC: MD (30, 20.0%), GA (16, 10.7%), NY (16, 10.7%), NJ (14, 9.3%)
Missouri Valley: IL (24, 18.0%), IN (13, 9.8%), MO (13, 9.8%), IA (11, 8.3%)
Mountain West: CA (24, 19.7%), TX (19, 15.6%)
NEC: NJ (28, 17.9%), NY (23, 14.7%), PA (13, 8.3%), CT (12, 7.7%), MD (12, 7.7%)
Ohio Valley: TN (23, 18.0%), GA (14, 10.9%)
Pac-10: CA (49, 35.0%), WA (16, 11.4%), OR (14, 10.0%)
Patriot: TX (17, 14.9%), NY (12, 10.5%), CA (11, 9.6%), PA (11, 9.6%)
SEC: GA (23, 13.6%), AL (17, 10.1%), TN (15, 8.9%), LA (13, 7.7%)
SoCon: NC (30, 17.4%), GA (24, 14.0%), TN (16, 9.3%), SC (13, 7.6%)
Southland: TX (54, 33.3%), LA (36, 22.2%), IL (11, 6.8%)
Summit: IN (17, 13.0%), MI (12, 9.2%), MN (11, 9.2%), IL (10, 7.6%)
Sun Belt: TX (28, 16.2%), LA (24, 13.9%), FL (17, 9.8%), TN (12, 6.9%)
SWAC: MS (22, 14.6%), GA (16, 10.6%), TX (16, 10.6%)
WAC: CA (34, 29.3%), TX (11, 9.5%)
West Coast: CA (44, 40.4%), TX (11, 10.1%), WA (10, 9.2%)

Definition of "Levels" (Based on kenpom.com conference ratings, averaged over 2006-10):
High Major: ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-10, SEC
Mid Major: A-10, C-USA, CAA, Horizon, MAC, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, WAC, West Coast
Low Major: A-Sun, America East, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Great West, Independent, Ivy, MAAC, MEAC, NEC, Ohio Valley, Patriot, SoCon, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC

Level by HS State (% HM-MM-LM all rounded to the nearest 1%)
OVERALL: 21-27-51
AL: 26-13-61
AR: 28-9-63
AZ: 27-42-31
CA: 20-31-49
CO: 15-35-50
CT: 15-28-57
FL: 18-21-61
GA: 26-12-62
IA: 22-47-31
IL: 25-35-40
IN: 26-43-32
KS: 27-39-33
KY: 27-16-57
LA: 19-15-66
MA: 13-15-72
MD: 22-19-59
MI: 26-41-32
MN: 23-52-25
MO: 21-43-36
MS: 19-16-65
NC: 18-24-58
NJ: 18-19-64
NV: 3-62-34
NY: 24-22-54
OH: 16-50-34
OK: 31-19-50
OR: 40-33-28
PA: 19-52-29
SC: 29-8-63
TN: 18-19-63
TX: 22-27-51
UT: 11-50-39
VA: 21-25-54
WA: 30-29-41
WI: 29-27-45

Level by HS Foreign Country (% HM-MM-LM all rounded to the nearest 1%)
OVERALL: 21-27-51
Australia: 19-41-41
Canada: 9-31-59
United Kingdom: 6-27-67

Teams with players from the most different locations:
Cornell (15), Nebraska (15), Citadel (13), FIU (13), Lafayette (13), Northeastern (13), Air Force (12), Bryant (12), Columbia (12), Creighton (12), Delaware State (12), Duquesne (12), Fordham (12), Louisville (12), Mississippi Valley State (12), Pennsylvania (12), Vanderbilt (12), American (11), Belmont (11), Central Arkansas (11), Cincinnati (11), Connecticut (11), Dartmouth (11), Drake (11), Eastern Kentucky (11), George Washington (11), Grambling State (11), Iowa State (11), Murray State (11)

Teams with players from the fewest states:
Hofstra (2, all NY except one from Hungary), Louisiana-Lafayette (2, all LA except one from TX), Bowling Green (3), Cal State Bakersfield (3), Florida Gulf Coast (3), Illinois-Chicago (3), Sacramento State (3), San Jose State (3), UC Davis (3), UC Santa Barbara (3), Winston-Salem State (3), Chicago State (4), Georgia (4), Houston Baptist (4), IUPUI (4), Kennesaw State (4), Longwood (4), Loyola Marymount (4), Nicholls State (4), Northwestern State (4), Oakland (4), Prairie View A&M (4), Purdue (4), San Diego State (4), Seattle (4), St. Mary's (4), Texas-Arlington (4), UC Riverside (4)

HM teams with players from the fewest states:
Georgia (4), Purdue (4), Alabama (5), Arizona (5), Georgetown (5), Illinois (5), Iowa (5), Michigan State (5), Seton Hall (5), UCLA (5), Washington (5)

HS State by Distance (% In-State - Border State - In Region - Out of Region)
OVERALL: 38-23-13-27
AK: 0-0-0-100
AL: 40-23-16-21
AR: 43-35-7-15
AZ: 18-27-4-51
CA: 51-7-7-35
CO: 52-8-6-33
CT: 26-23-36-15
DC: 0-5-33-62
DE: 31-25-31-13
FL: 31-13-20-36
GA: 23-48-12-17
HI: 100-0-0-0
IA: 44-19-13-25
ID: 14-43-0-43
IL: 38-14-13-35
IN: 45-27-5-24
KS: 24-27-15-33
KY: 32-34-20-14
LA: 59-15-7-19
MA: 25-47-17-11
MD: 26-29-22-23
ME: 50-0-25-25
MI: 45-18-7-30
MN: 5-38-18-38
MO: 26-34-3-37
MS: 47-39-9-5
MT: 80-0-0-20
NC: 50-24-6-19
ND: 63-25-0-13
NE: 31-23-15-31
NH: 9-9-45-36
NJ: 18-34-25-24
NM: 38-0-0-63
NV: 24-21-10-45
NY: 35-21-13-31
OH: 44-15-15-27
OK: 21-33-5-40
OR: 35-33-2-30
PA: 30-41-15-14
RI: 8-33-42-17
SC: 54-13-17-16
SD: 63-19-0-19
TN: 46-24-13-17
TX: 40-15-6-39
UT: 75-6-11-8
VA: 33-25-22-20
VT: 50-50-0-0
WA: 41-16-20-23
WI: 36-25-14-25
WV: 15-0-46-38
WY: 40-20-0-40

# Schools in HS State vs. Distance (In-State - Border State - In-Region - Out of Region)
OVERALL: 38-23-13-27
0-2 schools: 26-25-17-32
3-5 schools: 32-25-11-32
6-9 schools: 30-33-17-19
10-14 schools: 40-21-14-25
15-18 - no states
19+ schools: 44-15-8-32 (CA, NY, TX, NC)

# HM Players by State
California (82), Texas (74), New York (63), Illinois (61), Georgia (60), Florida (39), Indiana (39), North Carolina (37), Maryland (32), Michigan (32), Virginia (32), Pennsylvania (30), New Jersey (28), Tennessee (25), Louisiana (24), Ohio (24), Alabama (23), Washington (21), South Carolina (18), Oregon (17), Wisconsin (16), Minnesota (15), Missouri (15), Arkansas (13), Oklahoma (13), Arizona (12), Kentucky (12), Mississippi (11), Kansas (9), Colorado (7), Connecticut (7), Iowa (7), Massachusetts (7), DC (6), Rhode Island (4), Utah (4), New Hampshire (3), Delaware (2), Nebraska (2), West Virginia (2)
1: Alaska, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota
0: Hawaii, Maine, Montana, Vermont, Wyoming

# HM Players by Country
Serbia (8), Australia (7), Nigeria (7), Canada (6), Puerto Rico (5), Senegal (4), Cameroon (3), Croatia (3), Germany (3), Lithuania (3), England (2), Latvia (2), Romania (2), Turkey (2), Venezuela (2), Bahamas (1), Belarus (1), Benin (1), China (1), Dominican Republic (1), Gambia (1), Ghana (1), Greece (1), Guadeloupe (1), Israel (1), Jamaica (1), Kosovo (1), Mexico (1), Montenegro (1), Netherlands (1), Russia (1), South Korea (1), Sudan (1), Sweden (1), Trinidad & Tobago (1), Ukraine (1)

# HM Schools in State vs. Distance of HM Recruits (In-State - Border State - In Region - Out of Region)
OVERALL: 38-23-10-29
0 HM schools: 0-13-27-60 (only 15 players)
1: 25-31-10-33
2: 40-24-10-25
3: 43-25-8-23
4: 41-15-9-35

# Division I players from state vs. Distance (In-State - Border State - In Region - Out of Region)
OVERALL: 38-23-13-27
1-10: 45-14-4-37
11-25: 23-21-29-27
26-50: 36-24-12-28<
br /> 51-100: 34-29-14-23 101-200 (really only 121-160): 38-26-15-22
200+: 39-19-11-31

Conference vs. Distance (In-State - Border State - In Region - Out of Region - International)
OVERALL: 34-21-12-25-8
A-10: 26-28-20-15-12
A-Sun: 41-22-8-16-12
ACC: 32-18-7-35-8
America East: 20-14-24-28-13
Big 12: 31-16-6-39-8
Big East: 21-29-14-28-8
Big Sky: 35-15-13-31-6
Big South: 23-28-22-20-8
Big Ten: 50-25-5-14-6
Big West: 70-3-2-16-9
C-USA: 31-17-9-35-8
CAA: 33-25-11-22-8
Great West: 42-14-16-22-6
Horizon: 46-18-10-21-5
Independent: 59-18-3-14-5
Ivy: 13-13-13-57-6
MAAC: 35-27-11-16-10
MAC: 43-24-13-15-5
MEAC: 25-25-23-24-3
Missouri Valley: 35-24-14-24-3
Mountain West: 31-18-7-33-11
NEC: 26-29-20-12-13
Ohio Valley: 27-33-19-16-5
Pac-10: 41-13-9-24-12
Patriot: 10-18-13-52-7
SEC: 39-23-12-20-6
SoCon: 29-24-14-26-6
Southland: 47-17-2-24-10
Summit: 37-24-15-15-8
Sun Belt: 41-22-10-20-8
SWAC: 32-17-11-38-3
WAC: 31-15-9-29-16
West Coast: 41-11-6-20-22

Less than 5 years in D-I vs. Distance (In-State - Border State - In Region - Out of Region - International)
OVERALL: 34-21-12-25-8
Less than 5 years breakdown: 43-21-12-18-6

Academic Rank vs. Distance
OVERALL: 34-21-12-25-8
High Academics (U.S. World & News Report rating over 70 - Brown, Cal, Columbia, Cornell, Duke, Georgetown, Harvard, Michigan, North Carolina, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Pennsylvania, Princeton, Rice, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Wake Forest, Yale): 26-15-9-41-8
Super High Academics (U.S. World & News Report rating Top 10 D-I schools - Brown, Columbia, Duke, Harvard, Northwestern, Pennsylvania, Princeton, Stanford, Yale): 19-14-11-49-7
Military (Air Force, Army, Navy): 11-11-11-67-0

Average kenpom.com Rank 2006-10 vs. Distance
OVERALL: 34-21-12-25-8
Top 10 (Duke, Georgetown, Kansas, Memphis, Michigan State, North Carolina, Ohio State, Pitt, Texas, West Virginia): 34-23-12-25-5
11-25: 34-22-12-26-7
26-50: 38-20-6-26-9
51-100: 34-24-11-24-7
101-200: 33-20-11-26-10
201-300: 34-20-15-23-8
301-330: 32-24-10-27-7
331-347: 39-17-13-25-6

Most in-state: Louisiana-Lafayette (14, 93.3%), Hofstra (9, 90.0%), UC Santa Barbara (14, 87.5%), Winston-Salem State (14, 87.5%), San Jose State (12, 85.7%), Cal State Bakersfield (10, 83.3%), Florida Gulf Coast (10, 83.3%), UC Davis (83.3%), Illinois-Chicago (13, 81.3%), Purdue (13, 81.3%), UC Riverside (12, 80.0%), Georgia (10, 76.9%), Sacramento State (10, 76.9%), Oakland (9, 75.0%), San Diego State (9, 75.0%), UCLA (11, 73.3%), Chicago State (10, 71.4%), Loyola Marymount (10, 71.4%), Northwestern State (10, 71.4%), Cal Poly (9, 69.2%), Houston Baptist (9, 69.2%), IUPUI (9, 69.2%), Long Beach State (9, 69.2%), Morgan State (9, 69.2%), Western Michigan (9, 69.2%)
No in-state: American, Boise State, Brown, Georgetown, George Washington, Hartford, Holy Cross, Howard, Idaho State, New Hampshire, Northeastern, Portland, Providence, Quinnipiac, Rhode Island, Toledo
None in region (In-State/Border State/In Region): Chattanooga, La Salle, Louisiana-Lafayette, North Dakota State, Northern Iowa, Presbyterian, Robert Morris, SE Louisiana, Tennessee Tech, Troy, Winston-Salem State, Xavier
One in region (In-State/Border State/In Region): Alabama, Arkansas State, Auburn, Austin Peay, Bowling Green, Charleston Southern, Dayton, Delaware, ECU, Georgia, Hampton, Hofstra, Iowa, IUPUI, Kent State, MD Eastern Shore, Michigan State, Missouri State, Morgan State, North Carolina A&T, Purdue, SE Missouri State, South Dakota, Southern Illinois, St. Joseph's, St. Peter's, UC Davis, UMBC, Western Michigan
Most out of region (Out of Region/International): Northeastern (13, 92.9%), New Mexico State (13, 86.7%), Hawaii (11, 84.6%), Cornell (16, 84.2%), Idaho State (9, 81.8%), Montana State (9, 81.8%), Nebraska (13, 81.3%), Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (11, 78.6%), Kansas State (10, 76.9%), Wyoming (10, 76.9%), Brown (9, 75.0%), Duke (9, 75.0%), Marquette (9, 75.0%), American (10, 71.4%), SMU (10, 71.4%), Air Force (12, 70.6%), Miami FL (9, 69.2%), FIU (12, 66.7%), Dartmouth (10, 66.7%), Harvard (10, 66.7%), Oregon (10, 66.7%)
Most international: Northeastern (6, 42.9%), St. Mary's (5, 38.5%), Stetson (5, 38.5%), New Orleans (4, 36.4%), Gonzaga (5, 35.7%), Fairleigh Dickinson (4, 33.3%), Binghamton (4, 30.8%), Portland (4, 30.8%), TCU (4, 30.8%), Valparaiso (4, 30.8%), Wyoming (4, 30.8%), SMU (4, 28.6%), Southern Utah (4, 28.6%), Temple (4, 28.6%), New Mexico State (4, 26.7%), Vanderbilt (4, 26.7%), Campbell (3, 25.0%), Long Island (3, 25.0%), Louisiana Tech (3, 25.0%), Marquette (3, 25.0%), Radford (3, 25.0%), Rutgers (3, 25.0%), Sam Houston State (3, 25.0%)

Highest-ranked FIBA nations with less than five Division I players (rank in parentheses):
Argentina (1), Spain (3), Greece (4), Italy (8), China (9), Angola (12), New Zealand (13), Russia (17), Slovenia (20), Iran (21), Venezuela (23), Lebanon (24), Israel (25)

Appendix B

We ran a multiple regression on number of Division I players in the state, using number of D-I schools, number of high-major players from the state, and state population as regressors. The assumptions were:

1. Each state has a similar distribution of talent (i.e., if two states have the same number of high-major players, then they should have similar numbers of mid-major and low-major players).
2. High-major players will make themselves known on a national level regardless of their region. So we used number of high-major players as an indicator of talent level for the state, then adjusted for number of schools in the state (so that states would get no extra credit for walk-ons, who normally come from nearby) and state population (to adjust for random variation in number of high-major players currently in the NCAA as opposed to being regularly in the NCAA). The actual equation used was:

Expected D-I players = 2.92*D-I Schools + 2.82*High-Major Players from State + (State Population / 331224) - 5

Then we checked the number of actual D-I players versus the number of expected D-I players. If there were fewer current players than expected, then the state was considered under-recruited. If there were more current players than expected, then the state was considered over-recruited.

We ran another regression without including the state population variable (because the assumptions underlying it weren't quite airtight despite its statistical significance at every confidence level) and used it to temper conclusions about states when the two were in disagreement.

I'm open to more discussion about this if anyone's still curious about the results or methods.

Drew Cannon is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Drew by clicking here or click here to see Drew's other articles.

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