March 9, 2010
One-Bid Leagues
Week Two

by Ken Pomeroy

There are five one-bid (or no-bid) conferences getting ready to start tourney play this week. Here's the run-down on the round-by-round probabilities of each....

Big West: March 10-13 (all games in Anaheim)

Seed                   Qtrs    Semis    Final    Champ
  2 Pacific             100      100     77.3     53.4
  1 UC Santa Barbara    100      100     64.4     25.3
  3 Long Beach St.      100      74.2    24.5     13.3
  4 UC Davis            100      53.6    17.1      4.0
  5 Cal St. Fullerton   53.3     27.6     9.2      2.3
  8 Cal St. Northridge  46.7     13.6     4.2      0.9
  6 Cal Poly            51.7     16.3     2.1      0.6
  7 UC Irvine           48.3     15.3     1.9      0.5

This is a log5 table, and it's explained here.

The Big West uses the double-stepladder bracket which stretches its seven-game tournament to four days. It also heavily rewards the top seeds by reseeding for each round. Pacific's a substantial favorite despite getting swept by the top-seeded Gauchos.

Great West: March 10, 12-13 (all games at Utah Valley)

Seed                Semis    Final    Champ
  1 South Dakota     100      73.9     63.2
  4 Utah Valley      68.4     20.8     15.1
  2 Houston Baptist  69.7     47.3     11.6
  5 UT Pan American  31.6      5.3      3.0
  6 NJIT             50.8     19.6      2.7
  3 North Dakota     49.2     18.7      2.5
  7 Chicago St.      30.3     14.4      1.8

There's no auto-bid for college basketball's newest conference, but the Coyotes of South Dakota are the heavy favorites by virtue of being the best team and getting a first-round pass.

MEAC: March 9-13 (all games in Winston-Salem, NC)

Seed                 Qtrs    Semis    Final    Champ
  1  Morgan St.       100     87.4     60.6     48.4
  5  Hampton          100     66.7     27.1     18.6
  3  S. Carolina St.  100     77.6     42.2     12.3
  2  Delaware St.     100     69.1     39.5     11.8
  4  Norfolk St.      100     33.3      8.9      4.6
  7  Bethune Cookman  68.7    24.5     10.6      2.1
  8  N. Carolina A&T  78.8    11.6      3.4      1.4
  11 Coppin St.       51.5    11.8      3.2      0.4
  6  UMES             48.5    10.6      2.7      0.3
  10 Florida A&M      31.3     6.3      1.7      0.2
  9  Howard           21.2     0.9      0.1      0.02

Morgan State's Todd Bozeman has his work cut out for him in this full-field neutral-site event. His Bears looked vulnerable over the last three weeks of MEAC play, so it wouldn't be a huge upset if they fail to run the three-game gauntlet and get the automatic bid.

Southland: March 10-11, 13 (all games in Katy, TX)

Seed                  Semis    Final    Champ
  1 Sam Houston St.    90.5     72.4     53.0
  2 Stephen F. Austin  69.5     38.8     15.6
  3 Texas A&M CC       55.2     29.0     10.8
  6 UT San Antonio     44.8     21.3      7.0
  4 SE Louisiana       58.4     15.8      7.0
  5 Texas St.          41.6      9.0      3.2
  7 UT Arlington       30.5     10.9      2.7
  8 Nicholls St.        9.5      2.8      0.6

Sam Houston finished three games clear of its nearest competitor in conference play. But because the Southland leaves its four worst teams at home, this ends up being a comparatively difficult event to win for the top seed.

SWAC: March 10-13 (all games in Bossier City, LA)

                   Semis    Final    Champ
2 Ark. Pine Bluff   84.9     63.7     41.0
1 Jackson St.       87.7     46.9     22.1
5 Texas Southern    65.8     37.2     18.2
3 Alabama St.       71.6     25.3     10.9
4 Prairie View A&M  34.2     14.2      4.9
7 Miss. Valley St.  15.1      5.5      1.4
6 Alabama A&M       28.4      5.5      1.3
8 Grambling         12.3      1.8      0.2

We last heard from Arkansas-Pine Bluff when they were oddly competitive during their non-conference slate of road games against mostly BCS-conference teams. A handful of close conference losses later, they are the two-seed in the SWAC tourney, but are still given an edge over top-seeded Jackson State.

Ken Pomeroy is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Ken by clicking here or click here to see Ken's other articles.