|
It’s March, ladies and gents, and that means we’ve entered the time of year when anything is possible. And that’s how we’ll choose to look at things here from this point on. Nothing is absolutely certain--there’s always a chance of the unexpected happening. (Well, not if you’re Marist. Sorry, Red Foxes.) That’s what makes this time of year special.
Most of you all know what’s coming next, but for those who don’t, here’s a brief explanation. My ratings produce a number that actually means something--it’s the chance of beating an average D-I team on a neutral floor. For instance, Michigan’s current rating of .8006 means that the Wolverines would win 8 out of 10 games against the average D-I team. Every March, I borrow Bill James’ log5 formula to take these ratings and compute probabilities for each team to win its conference tournament.
I’m not sure how the log5 formula got its name, but it’s fairly intuitive. Think of a coin with one side labeled “win” and the other side labeled “loss.” The chance of the coin landing on “win” is the team’s rating. Log5 is derived from the probability that a team’s coin will land on win and its opponent’s coin will land on loss. (If they land on the same side, you re-flip.)
As usual, Ken Pomeroy, the human being, does not endorse every single number that will be produced in these projections. However, I believe most of them are in the ball park. Today, we start with the one-bid leagues that have established their tournament brackets. All values here are the percent chance of advancing to a particular round.
America East: March 4, 6, 7 & 13, all games at Hartford
Seed Qtrs Semis Final Champ
2 Vermont 100 90.4 63.7 34.8
4 Boston U. 100 82.5 52.2 30.9
1 Stony Brook 100 87.4 42.0 21.1
3 Maine 100 80.3 29.2 10.8
6 Hartford 100 19.7 4.3 1.0
5 Binghamton 100 17.5 3.9 0.7
7 New Hampshire 100 9.6 2.7 0.4
9 Albany 66.0 9.8 1.6 0.2
8 UMBC 34.0 2.8 0.3 0.02
The most likely title game in America East is the two-seed facing the four-seed. However, Stony Brook tanked their regular season finale having wrapped up the top seed, so their chances may be a bit understated. Hartford went 3-5 in AE home games this season, so the non-neutral site is not much of an issue.
Atlantic Sun: March 3-6, all games at Mercer
Seed Semis Final Champ
3 Belmont 72.5 42.2 25.5
2 Jacksonville 91.3 42.7 23.5
1 Lipscomb 90.0 41.1 17.0
5 E. Tennessee St. 50.4 29.0 13.4
4 Campbell 49.6 28.4 12.9
6 Mercer 27.5 13.9 7.2
7 North Florida 8.7 1.2 0.2
8 Kennesaw St. 10.0 1.5 0.2
If you’re in the greater Macon area, stop by University Center, because this is one of the more wide-open events of the next two weeks. There are five teams with legitimate aspirations of winning, and home-court advantage gives Mercer an outside shot as well. Of note: the first round covers two days, but the A-Sun calls day two the second round. Interesting. Also interesting: This chart of the A-Sun's membership over the years. Does anyone want to be in this league?
Big Sky: March 6, 9-10, first round on-campus, semifinals & finals at Weber State
Seed Semis Final Champ
1 Weber St. 100 78.0 57.7
2 Northern Colorado 100 60.1 19.2
4 Montana 89.9 35.0 17.4
3 Montana St. 65.3 20.9 4.2
6 Portland St. 34.7 4.4 1.1
5 Northern Arizona 10.1 1.6 0.4
With just six teams invited to its postseason event, the Big Sky is the closest thing to the Ivy League in all of D-I. I don’t like the idea of an exclusive tourney to this degree, but to the conference’s credi, they re-seed for the semis which is normally a fairer way to run things. However, because seeds three through six don’t match the respective teams’ performance, the effect of re-seeding actually hurts Weber State slightly.
Big South: March 2, 4, 6, first round on-campus, semifinals at Coastal Carolina, finals at higher seed
Seed Semis Final Champ
1 Coastal Carolina 96.8 91.1 78.8
2 Radford 87.4 54.1 12.0
3 Winthrop 80.9 36.6 6.6
4 UNC Asheville 59.4 4.3 0.8
5 High Point 40.6 3.6 0.8
6 Liberty 19.1 5.3 0.5
7 Charleston S. 12.6 3.9 0.3
8 VMI 3.2 1.1 0.1
Coastal Carolina has quietly dominated the Big South with 12 double-digit wins included in their 15-3 record. Home-court advantage makes them an overwhelming favorite to win the conference’s bid.
MAAC: March 5-8, all games at Siena
Seed Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 Siena 100 94.1 85.9 73.1
2 Fairfield 100 73.1 36.7 8.4
3 Iona 100 56.6 32.9 8.0
6 Niagara 100 43.4 22.6 4.6
4 St. Peter's 100 64.9 8.6 3.4
7 Canisius 91.9 26.6 7.8 0.9
5 Rider 100 35.1 3.1 0.9
9 Manhattan 54.3 3.5 1.5 0.4
8 Loyola MD 45.7 2.5 1.0 0.2
10 Marist 8.1 0.3 0.01 0.0002
The MAAC produces the biggest Championship Week long shot in Marist, who has a 1-in-6500 chance to leave Albany with an NCAA bid in hand. They were able to lead Siena for 17 minutes on Sunday, so maybe there’s hope. Siena is easily the best team in the conference and gets to play at home but, even so, they have a 1-in-4 chance of being disappointed.
Northeast Conference: March 4, 7, 10, on-campus
Seed Semis Final Champ
1 Quinnipiac 91.9 80.0 52.5
2 Robert Morris 90.6 51.8 21.4
3 Mount St. Mary's 94.3 46.7 23.3
4 Long Island 81.8 15.1 2.2
5 Fairleigh Dickinson 18.2 2.6 0.2
8 Monmouth 8.1 2.3 0.2
7 Central Connecticut 9.4 0.8 0.09
6 St. Francis PA 5.7 0.8 0.09
The NEC re-seeds for the semis. and I have not included that twist in the calculations. However, it appears to provide limited benefits for the higher seeds since the top four seeds are big favorites to win their first-round games. The Mount has the best rating in the NEC, and has won their last ten after starting NEC play 2-6 with a slew of close losses.
Ohio Valley: March 2, 5-6, first round on-campus, semifinals & finals in Nashville
Seed Semis Final Champ
1 Murray St. 96.7 85.1 66.2
2 Morehead St. 92.3 70.4 24.0
3 Austin Peay 79.3 23.3 4.0
5 Eastern Kentucky 45.5 7.5 3.0
4 Eastern Illinois 54.5 6.3 1.9
6 Tenn. Tech 20.7 3.7 0.3
7 Jacksonville St. 7.7 2.6 0.2
8 Tennessee St. 3.3 1.1 0.2
The OVC has improved remarkably the past two seasons. They were approaching D-I doormat status in ’08. This season’s Tennessee State team that barely qualified for the conference tourney would have been a contender back then. Should Murray State escape, they could make a first-round opponent sweat in a couple weeks, much like they did Cal in the season opener.
Patriot League: March 3, 7, 12, on-campus
Seed Semis Final Champ
1 Lehigh 80.7 66.8 51.7
2 Bucknell 65.1 45.4 18.7
3 Lafayette 75.8 32.8 13.0
4 American 69.9 16.5 5.2
7 Holy Cross 34.9 13.9 4.8
8 Army 19.3 8.3 2.5
5 Navy 30.1 8.3 2.1
6 Colgate 24.2 7.9 2.1
Lehigh is the odds-on favorite, aided by a weak 4/5 matchup on their side of the bracket. This assumes they get by Army in the first round, which is far from a sure thing.
Summit League: March 6-9, all games in Sioux Falls, SD
Seed Semis Final Champ
2 IUPUI 90.5 58.2 42.3
3 Oral Roberts 81.1 36.6 23.8
1 Oakland 86.6 59.6 23.3
4 South Dakota St. 57.0 22.5 5.7
5 IPFW 43.0 14.5 3.0
6 North Dakota St. 18.9 3.5 1.1
7 Western Illinois 9.5 1.7 0.4
8 UMKC 13.4 3.4 0.3
Somehow, Oakland racked up a 17-1 record with only two wins by more than 14 points. They went 3-1 against IUPUI and Oral Roberts while getting outscored by 16 points in those games. It’s the Jaguars that are the team to watch in Sioux Falls.
Sun Belt: March 6-9, all games in Hot Springs, AR
Seed Qtrs Semis Final Champ
4 Western Kentucky 94.0 70.7 51.3 33.8
3 Middle Tennessee 100 68.9 43.1 22.3
2 North Texas 100 65.9 30.9 13.6
1 Troy 100 61.6 23.4 10.8
5 Arkansas St. 78.2 25.3 13.1 5.8
6 Denver 80.0 28.7 13.9 5.3
8 Florida Atlantic 67.7 29.7 9.7 3.9
7 La. Lafayette 74.4 29.4 10.9 3.7
9 South Alabama 32.3 8.8 1.7 0.4
10 La. Monroe 25.6 4.7 0.8 0.1
12 Ark. Little Rock 21.8 2.9 0.7 0.1
11 Florida Int'l 20.0 2.4 0.5 0.07
13 New Orleans 6.0 1.1 0.2 0.02
The Sun Belt brings all 13 teams to Hot Springs, and with that many participants anything is possible. Troy is the top-seed, but only has a 1-in-10 chance to win the Sun Belt lottery. Western Kentucky has won seven of its last eight in conference, and is the favorite despite not earning a first-round bye.
Ken Pomeroy is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact Ken by clicking here or click here to see Ken's other articles.
| 
0 comments have been left for this article. 
Bubbles of their Own Making: Villanova, Temp...