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Welcome to the latest installment of Tuesday Truths, where I look at how well 126 teams in 11 conferences are doing against their league opponents on a per-possession basis. (For a tidy little homily on why this stuff is so very awesome, go here.)
Behold the first full-strength look at all of the teams I'm tracking this season.
ACC: The defense forcing turnovers is not the one you'd expect
Through games of January 25, conference games only
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession Opp. PPP: opponent PPP
EM: efficiency margin (PPP - Opp. PPP)
Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. Maryland 66.6 1.17 1.00 +0.17
2. Duke 68.0 1.09 0.95 +0.14
3. Virginia 67.3 1.05 0.98 +0.07
4. Wake Forest 70.3 1.02 0.99 +0.03
5. Clemson 68.6 0.95 0.95 0.00
6. Florida St. 68.3 0.99 0.99 0.00
7. Virginia Tech 69.7 0.95 0.96 -0.01
8. Georgia Tech 68.0 0.98 1.00 -0.02
9. NC State 68.6 1.05 1.10 -0.05
10. North Carolina 71.3 0.99 1.06 -0.07
11. Miami 65.8 0.99 1.10 -0.11
12. BC 64.2 0.97 1.10 -0.13
I gave the Maryland offense some love yesterday, so I'll be fair and balanced and note here that Clemson has come out of the gate playing very good defense. What's more the Tigers are solid even when they don't force opponents into a turnover, allowing just 1.23 points per "effective" (TO-less) possession. If you're looking for an ACC defense that excels at making the other team give the ball away in 2010, that would actually be Virginia Tech. In conference play the Hokies have forced a turnover on a notably robust 27 percent of opponent possessions.
Big 12: Remember Kansas?
Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. Kansas 70.5 1.20 0.95 +0.25
2. Baylor 66.9 1.20 1.08 +0.12
3. Oklahoma St. 71.2 1.02 0.94 +0.08
4. Kansas St. 75.1 1.02 0.95 +0.07
5. Texas 75.1 1.05 0.99 +0.06
6. Missouri 70.1 1.01 1.00 +0.01
7. Texas A&M 65.4 0.98 1.01 -0.03
8. Colorado 70.6 1.09 1.18 -0.09
9. Oklahoma 68.4 0.90 1.00 -0.10
10. Texas Tech 72.6 0.96 1.07 -0.11
11. Iowa St. 71.0 0.95 1.07 -0.12
12. Nebraska 62.6 0.92 1.09 -0.17
National champions in 2008, preseason favorites to win it all in 2010, etc.? Well, the Jayhawks look good so far. Saturday night Bill Self's team has an opportunity to further distinguish itself from Texas by doing something the Longhorns could not: Win at Kansas State.
Big East: Is Marquette the unluckiest team ever?
Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. Villanova 72.0 1.19 1.03 +0.16
2. West Virginia 64.4 1.13 0.99 +0.14
3. Syracuse 71.4 1.08 0.97 +0.11
4. Louisville 66.9 1.15 1.06 +0.09
5. Georgetown 65.1 1.10 1.02 +0.08
6. Pitt 64.9 1.07 1.01 +0.06
7. Connecticut 69.2 1.02 0.97 +0.05
8. Marquette 62.9 1.10 1.05 +0.05
9. Notre Dame 66.5 1.12 1.12 0.00
10. Cincinnati 65.2 1.02 1.02 0.00
11. Seton Hall 69.8 1.05 1.09 -0.04
12. Providence 72.6 1.09 1.14 -0.05
13. St. John’s 66.7 0.93 1.00 -0.07
14. S. Florida 68.5 1.01 1.12 -0.11
15. DePaul 63.8 0.92 1.15 -0.23
16. Rutgers 70.7 0.91 1.17 -0.26
The numbers here suggest that the Golden Eagles are a solid NCAA team, but at just 2-5 in the Big East Buzz Williams' group is tied with the likes of South Florida and St. John's in the eyes of the committee. Marquette lost by one at West Virginia, by two to Villanova, by two at Villanova, by one at (brace yourself) DePaul, and by five at Syracuse. Then again what's done is done. Assuming Lazar Hayward and the gang win tonight against Rutgers, let's see how they do Saturday at Connecticut.
Big Ten: Wait, Northwestern's about as good as...Iowa?
Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. Michigan St. 65.5 1.04 0.92 +0.12
2. Wisconsin 58.7 1.03 0.92 +0.11
3. Purdue 66.7 1.06 1.00 +0.06
4. Ohio St. 64.0 1.01 0.98 +0.03
5. Michigan 62.0 1.01 0.98 +0.03
6. Illinois 66.9 1.00 0.98 +0.02
7. Minnesota 66.6 1.03 1.03 0.00
8. Iowa 64.2 0.93 1.01 -0.08
9. Northwestern 63.5 1.04 1.13 -0.09
10. Penn St. 61.1 0.97 1.08 -0.11
11. Indiana 65.3 0.91 1.02 -0.11
Let us say instead that over their first seven conference games each team's been outscored by about the same margin. The concern for Bill Carmody's team going forward is that the Big Ten is absolutely feasting on this defense in the paint, making an incredible 57 percent of their twos.
Pac-10: We have separation
Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. Cal 69.3 1.11 0.99 +0.12
2. Arizona 66.1 1.09 0.98 +0.11
3. USC 61.6 0.99 0.89 +0.10
4. Arizona St. 62.6 1.02 0.93 +0.09
5. Stanford 65.6 1.02 1.04 -0.02
6. Washington 69.7 1.03 1.06 -0.03
7. Washington St. 66.6 1.04 1.09 -0.05
8. UCLA 63.9 0.99 1.06 -0.07
9. Oregon St. 64.0 0.92 1.01 -0.09
10. Oregon 67.6 0.98 1.13 -0.15
For all the talk of a "wide open" Pac-10 this year, the league is actually showing a much cleaner distinction between haves and have-nots than any other major conference. On the one hand there's Cal, Arizona, USC, and Arizona State. On the other hand there's everyone else. That could change, of course. Who knows, maybe Washington will decide to start playing offense and/or defense in road games. But right now there's a big difference between the fourth- and fifth-best team on the left coast.
SEC: Incredible! Amazing! Superb! And Kentucky's pretty good too.
Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. Kentucky 74.1 1.14 0.95 +0.19
2. Vanderbilt 69.1 1.20 1.10 +0.10
3. Tennessee 66.5 1.01 0.94 +0.07
4. Ole Miss 69.2 1.02 0.98 +0.04
5. Mississippi St. 71.7 1.02 1.00 +0.02
6. Alabama 64.5 0.95 0.95 0.00
7. Florida 65.6 1.11 1.11 0.00
8. Georgia 70.0 1.04 1.04 0.00
9. South Carolina 68.7 0.99 1.00 -0.01
10. Arkansas 72.3 0.99 1.08 -0.09
11. Auburn 70.0 1.00 1.13 -0.13
12. LSU 64.6 0.95 1.12 -0.17
You've probably heard it said that Georgia coach Mark Fox deserves consideration for SEC if not national coach of the year. That may be putting it mildly. If the Bulldogs continue to score about as many points as they allow, they will have set a new standard for major-conference year-to-year improvement. (Last year's efficiency margin: -0.18.)
A-10: Does Majerus have a weird pronunciation for "defense" too?
Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. Temple 62.4 1.11 0.91 +0.20
2. Saint Louis 64.4 0.99 0.87 +0.12
3. Rhode Island 70.8 1.06 0.96 +0.10
4. Dayton 69.3 0.99 0.90 +0.09
5. Xavier 70.5 1.07 0.99 +0.08
6. Richmond 63.9 1.03 1.00 +0.03
7. Charlotte 67.9 1.00 0.98 +0.02
8. La Salle 68.3 1.03 1.05 -0.02
9. St. Bonaventure 67.5 0.98 1.00 -0.02
10. GW 65.0 0.98 1.05 -0.07
11. UMass 69.9 0.97 1.04 -0.07
12. Duquesne 68.7 0.95 1.03 -0.08
13. Saint Joseph’s 71.0 0.92 1.04 -0.12
14. Fordham 70.2 0.86 1.08 -0.22
The Billikens have been playing themselves some D. A-10 opponents are making just 41 percent of their twos and 27 percent of their threes against stingy SLU.
Conference USA: Welcome to a post-Calipari dogfight
Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. Tulsa 67.9 1.10 0.95 +0.15
2. Marshall 65.4 1.19 1.05 +0.14
3. Memphis 65.2 1.15 1.02 +0.13
4. UTEP 65.4 1.03 0.90 +0.13
5. UAB 63.2 1.00 0.93 +0.07
6. Houston 70.9 1.08 1.04 +0.04
7. SMU 59.2 1.00 1.01 -0.01
8. Southern Miss 60.1 0.98 1.00 -0.02
9. Tulane 70.1 0.87 0.97 -0.10
10. UCF 69.8 1.03 1.13 -0.10
11. E. Carolina 67.3 0.89 1.05 -0.16
12. Rice 66.5 0.93 1.12 -0.19
UAB may look like they're a step behind the top of the conference here, but keep in mind the Blazers won by two at Marshall on Saturday night. This should be a fun conference race to watch.
Missouri Valley: The one true Game of the Year! is tomorrow night
Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. N. Iowa 60.3 1.03 0.88 +0.15
2. Wichita St. 64.7 1.03 0.96 +0.07
3. Illinois St. 63.3 1.06 1.00 +0.06
4. S. Illinois 65.8 1.00 0.99 +0.01
5. Bradley 66.5 1.04 1.03 +0.01
6. Missouri St. 65.7 1.12 1.12 0.00
7. Drake 64.8 1.01 1.01 0.00
8. Creighton 65.6 0.99 1.02 -0.03
9. Indiana St. 64.5 1.00 1.07 -0.07
10. Evansville 65.1 0.90 1.10 -0.20
I'm kidding, of course. (I said the same thing last week. From here on out I'll name a Valley Game of the Year! weekly.) Still, Drake's game tomorrow night at Northern Iowa could be more interesting than you'd assume. The Bulldogs' "0.00" here is made up of four games of "-0.19" followed by five games of, well, do the math. On Saturday in Des Moines, Mark Phelps' team dispatched Wichita State by 14. If I'm UNI coach Ben Jacobson, right now I'm telling my team to forget about Drake's highly misleading 10-11 record.
Mountain West: Provo wants GameDay to pay a visit
Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. BYU 68.4 1.13 0.89 +0.24
2. New Mexico 69.4 1.02 0.93 +0.09
3. UNLV 70.3 1.07 1.00 +0.07
4. Utah 65.4 1.02 0.95 +0.07
5. San Diego St. 67.2 1.06 1.06 0.00
6. TCU 61.0 0.98 1.05 -0.07
7. Wyoming 69.8 1.01 1.09 -0.08
8. Colorado St. 69.6 0.97 1.07 -0.10
9. Air Force 58.6 0.86 1.16 -0.30
Digger Phelps might be skeptical, but yea verily I say beware BYU. They are balanced, efficient, and consistent. Indeed the Cougars have a better shot at running the Mountain West table than any team since, well, BYU in 2008 (14-2). At any rate I'd get used to the "1" next to their name here.
WCC: These numbers come with an advisory label
Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. Portland 64.7 1.15 0.97 +0.18
2. Gonzaga 69.4 1.19 1.05 +0.14
3. Saint Mary’s 67.3 1.17 1.04 +0.13
4. Pepperdine 69.2 1.07 1.08 -0.01
5. San Francisco 70.0 1.01 1.06 -0.05
6. Santa Clara 64.3 0.98 1.06 -0.08
7. Loyola Marymount 69.0 0.96 1.11 -0.15
8. San Diego 61.7 0.93 1.09 -0.16
This past weekend Portland showed a clear ability to win home games by healthy margins against Pepperdine and, especially, Loyola Marymount. Gonzaga, conversely, allowed those same two vanquished foes to stay a bit closer. So, yeah, that's one data point. Here are a couple others. The Zags won by three at Portland and by seven at Saint Mary's. On the other hand the Pilots lost by five when they visited Moraga, CA. Draw your own conclusions.
John largely eschews decimal points on Twitter: @JohnGasaway. College Basketball Prospectus 2009-10 is now available on Amazon.
John Gasaway is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact John by clicking here or click here to see John's other articles.
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