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On the eve of the 2009-10 NBA season, Basketball Prospectus offers its statistical projections for what lies ahead. Our NBA analysts, Bradford Doolittle and Kevin Pelton, each have their own systems for projecting the upcoming campaign. Pelton's SCHOENE system was featured in Pro Basketball Prospectus 2009-10, along with complete explanations of the logic behind the projections, but is updated here to account for developments during training camp. Doolittle's NBAPET system is featured in its entirety for the first time.
In conjunction with SCHOENE's projections, we also used the Monte Carlo simulator developed by Erich Doerr to take into account the actual schedule and the variance in team performance (this is not specific to the team, but based solely on the length of the schedule) to estimate the odds of teams making the playoffs, winning their division and ending the regular season with the best record in their conference or the entire NBA. Because the West is stronger top to bottom than the East, each East team gains slightly by incorporating strength of schedule.
East Playoffs Win% W L Play Div Con NBA ORating DRating
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Cleveland .728 59.7 22.3 1.00 .99 .51 .39 112.9 (4) 105.0 (2)
Orlando .724 59.4 22.6 1.00 .98 .47 .36 114.7 (1) 107.0 (5)
Boston .621 50.9 31.1 .99 .78 .07 .04 108.4 (21) 104.4 (1)
Philadelphia .515 42.2 39.8 .81 .15 .00 .00 108.8 (18) 108.6 (10)
Atlanta .496 40.7 41.3 .74 .01 .00 .00 108.0 (23) 108.4 (8)
New York .465 38.1 43.9 .58 .05 .00 .00 111.0 (11) 112.6 (27)
Milwaukee .455 37.3 44.7 .54 .01 .00 .00 106.8 (25) 108.7 (11)
Miami .450 36.9 45.1 .51 .00 .00 .00 106.6 (26) 108.8 (15)
After the three near-certain division-winners, the rest of the Eastern Conference is a mess. Certainly, SCHOENE has a different view of the likely playoff teams than conventional wisdom. The Bucks and Knicks are near the bottom of the Eastern Conference in most predictions, but SCHOENE likes the Knicks' offense and the Bucks' defense. More to the point, it dislikes the other teams, since a win total in the mid-30s could make the playoffs in the East this year. The extent to which playoff spots are up for grabs is reflected in the fact that just five East teams are projected with better than a 60-percent chance of reaching the postseason.
East Lottery Win% W L Play Div Con NBA ORating DRating
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Chicago .441 36.2 45.8 .46 .00 .00 .00 106.2 (27) 108.4 (9)
Detroit .420 34.4 47.6 .35 .00 .00 .00 109.0 (16) 112.1 (24)
Toronto .411 33.7 48.3 .30 .01 .00 .00 109.9 (13) 113.0 (29)
Washington .410 33.6 48.4 .30 .00 .00 .00 108.9 (17) 112.3 (25)
Indiana .371 30.4 51.6 .16 .00 .00 .00 108.6 (20) 113.0 (28)
Charlotte .365 29.9 52.1 .13 .00 .00 .00 104.8 (29) 109.9 (19)
New Jersey .360 29.5 52.5 .13 .00 .00 .00 104.1 (30) 109.4 (17)
One of the big changes from the book is our projection for the Washington Wizards. Giving more playing time to Fabricio Oberto, especially after Antawn Jamison's shoulder injury, knocked the Wizards not only out of the playoffs but all the way to 13th in the conference. The Raptors are the other team SCHOENE is particularly down on, but even they made the playoffs nearly one in every three simulations.
West Playoffs Win% W L Play Div Con NBA ORating DRating
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L.A. Lakers .662 54.3 27.7 .96 .87 .33 .11 112.6 (5) 107.0 (4)
San Antonio .635 52.1 29.9 .94 .39 .21 .05 114.0 (2) 108.7 (12)
New Orleans .628 51.5 30.5 .92 .35 .18 .05 111.9 (8) 106.9 (3)
Dallas .601 49.3 32.7 .86 .21 .10 .02 111.2 (10) 107.5 (6)
Portland .599 49.1 32.9 .85 .38 .10 .02 113.9 (3) 110.1 (20)
Denver .593 48.6 33.4 .83 .34 .09 .02 111.6 (9) 108.1 (7)
Utah .579 47.5 34.5 .79 .27 .06 .01 112.4 (7) 109.2 (16)
Memphis .527 43.2 38.8 .54 .04 .01 .00 110.1 (12) 108.8 (13)
Based on these projections, the Northwest should feature the most fascinating division race in the NBA this season, with Portland, Denver and Utah all having better than a 25-percent chance of emerging as division champs. (Note that the percentages for this, as many others, add up to slightly more than 100 percent because of the possibility of ties. We did not bother to break those.) The big surprise, as those of you who have read the book already know, is Memphis in the playoffs. Needless to say, if that proves the case, it will be a major feather in SCHOENE's cap. We discussed the Grizzlies' offense last week, but the projection is also positive about the Memphis defense despite poor projected shot defense. The Grizzlies come out strong in each of the other Four Factors, including terrific defensive rebounding and a surprising ability to keep opponents off the foul line.
West Lottery Win% W L Play Div Con NBA ORating DRating
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L.A. Clippers .501 41.1 40.9 .39 .06 .01 .00 109.2 (15) 108.8 (14)
Phoenix .495 40.6 41.4 .36 .05 .01 .00 112.5 (6) 112.5 (26)
Houston .470 38.5 43.5 .24 .01 .00 .00 108.8 (19) 109.5 (18)
Golden State .459 37.6 44.4 .21 .02 .00 .00 109.5 (14) 110.5 (22)
Oklahoma City .412 33.8 48.2 .08 .01 .00 .00 107.6 (24) 110.3 (21)
Minnesota .378 31.0 51.0 .03 .00 .00 .00 108.2 (22) 112.1 (23)
Sacramento .230 18.9 63.1 .00 .00 .00 .00 105.8 (28) 114.5 (30)
The big change in the West is Golden State tumbling from a legit playoff threat (just ahead of the Clippers) to near the bottom of the pack of teams that legitimately aspire to make the playoffs this year. Alas, this owes less to the general dysfunction in the Bay Area than Brandan Wright's long-term shoulder injury. Minnesota also lost about a win and a half from what is in the book because of Kevin Love's injury and some other changes in projected playing time. Still, barring a catastrophic injury to Al Jefferson, it is difficult to see the Timberwolves finishing behind the Kings in the standings.
NBAPET
There are two main differences between NBAPET and SCHOENE when it comes to forecasting teams. First, NBAPET utilizes box score data collected over the past five years to project individual defensive ratings. Thus there are many more differences in the systems' projections for team Defensive Rating than there are for the offensive side of the ledger. Second, rather than relying on SCHOENE's robust similarity scores to generate individual player projections, NBAPET uses weighted averages for the past four seasons to generate player Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Past statistics are regressed to the league mean according to playing time (or lack thereof) and standard aging modifiers are applied.
The obvious comparison between the two systems in a baseball context is this: NBAPET's projection method is akin to Tom Tango's MARCEL forecasts, while SCHOENE is the hoops version of Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system. They are dissimilar methods to look at similar problems. The comparison falls a little short, though, when you consider that the two systems are generated using very different data sets. Rather than run through a simulator, NBAPET's team forecasts are simply adjusted for strength of schedule.
East (PO) W L Pct ORtg (rank) DRtg (rank)
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Celtics 56 26 .685 110.9 (12) 103.5 ( 1)
Cavaliers 54 28 .654 113.9 ( 4) 107.9 ( 7)
Magic 49 33 .596 112.9 ( 6) 109.4 (15)
Bobcats 45 37 .547 110.9 (11) 109.3 (14)
Bulls 45 37 .547 109.6 (17) 108.1 ( 9)
Heat 44 38 .538 109.8 (15) 108.5 (11)
Pistons 44 38 .533 107.5 (24) 106.5 ( 4)
76ers 40 42 .492 107.6 (23) 108.0 ( 8)
Orlando's forecast is held back by the introduction Vince Carter into the Magic mix. NBAPET isn't a fan. The Bobcats' projection has remained surprisingly strong ever since the Tyson Chandler-Emeka Okafor deal. At the top of the list, Boston's re-ascension to the top of the East is predicated on health from their aged core. As such, there is a lower degree of confidence in the Celtics' projection than there is in that of Cleveland.
East (Oth) W L Pct ORtg (rank) DRtg (rank)
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Nets 40 42 .487 106.5 (27) 107.1 ( 6)
Pacers 38 44 .459 110.1 (13) 111.7 (22)
Raptors 38 44 .457 109.1 (18) 110.7 (20)
Knicks 31 51 .379 107.9 (20) 112.3 (25)
Hawks 30 52 .370 107.8 (21) 112.5 (26)
Bucks 26 56 .318 106.7 (26) 113.3 (29)
Wizards 26 56 .313 111.7 (10) 118.8 (30)
The two biggest surprises are probably the forecasts for Atlanta and Washington. NBAPET sees a big step back for the Hawks on both ends of the court, but it's hard to pinpoint where the decline is going to come. Mike Bibby is due for a regression and is getting old and Jamal Crawford can take a chunk out of any team's projections, but there is enough youth on the Hawks' roster to make that severe of a drop unlikely. As for Washington, the dire forecast comes from a god-awful defensive projection. We've got more on that coming later this week.
West (PO) W L Pct ORtg (rank) DRtg (rank)
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Spurs 57 25 .693 114.5 ( 1) 106.5 ( 5)
Jazz 53 29 .652 111.9 ( 7) 106.0 ( 3)
Lakers 53 29 .642 114.4 ( 2) 108.8 (12)
Mavericks 50 32 .614 114.2 ( 3) 109.8 (17)
Rockets 50 32 .614 108.1 (19) 104.0 ( 2)
Blazers 50 32 .611 113.7 ( 5) 109.6 (16)
Hornets 44 38 .536 111.8 ( 9) 110.6 (19)
Nuggets 42 40 .518 109.8 (16) 109.2 (13)
NBAPET does not like the Ron Artest addition to the Lakers much at all with a surprisingly negative effect on L.A.'s Defensive Rating. NBAPET always likes the Jazz but is almost certainly overstating Utah's defensive upside. Also, the Rockets' projection is a bit of a shocker. As we wrote in Pro Basketball Prospectus 2009-10, NBAPET recognizes the collection of solid collection of individual defenders the Rockets have collected. However, it'll be interesting to see how much the good defensive track records that Houston's players have compiled will be negatively impacted by the absence of shot blocking due to Yao Ming's injury.
West (Oth) W L Pct ORtg (rank) DRtg (rank)
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Suns 38 44 .466 111.8 ( 8) 113.2 (28)
Warriors 35 47 .421 109.8 (14) 112.7 (27)
T-wolves 32 50 .395 104.4 (30) 108.1 (10)
Thunder 32 50 .393 107.8 (22) 111.7 (21)
Grizzlies 30 52 .372 107.4 (25) 112.1 (24)
Kings 30 52 .364 105.2 (29) 110.1 (18)
Clippers 27 55 .335 105.8 (28) 111.7 (23)
NBAPET likes the Kings better than SCHOENE because it loves the defensive impact of Tyreke Evans. That said, out of this tier of teams in the West, it'll be interesting to see who develops the most from the ugly duckling quartet of Sacramento, Oklahoma City, Memphis and Minnesota.
Tomorrow, Basketball Prospectus' 2009-10 NBA season preview continues with subjective predictions, awards picks and more from Bradford and Kevin.
Pro Basketball Prospectus 2009-10 is now available on Amazon.com. See our PBP 09-10 page for more details and to purchase your copy in printed form or as a downloadable PDF.
Bradford Doolittle is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact Bradford by clicking here or click here to see Bradford's other articles.
Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.
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