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As Michael Jordan is officially enshrined in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame tonight, he enters with one great "what if" about his career--what he might have accomplished had he not twice retired before completing his career with the Washington Wizards at age 40.
Because the NBA is not nearly as focused on career totals as its professional sports leagues peers are, when Jordan's absences are discussed it is usually in the context of championships--how many in a row might Jordan's Bulls have won had he not stepped away twice at the conclusion of threepeats? However, the retirements also cost Jordan a chance to build on his career totals. That's why Jordan goes into the Hall of Fame as the third-leading scorer in NBA history.
What might Jordan's line look like had he played a full career? The question is impossible to answer conclusively, but modern basketball analytics allow us to take a run at the issue. Basketball Prospectus' SCHOENE projection system uses similar players to project the development of NBA players over the course of their career, not unlike the PECOTA system popularized by Nate Silver in baseball.
While SCHOENE's main use is for looking into the future, we can also use it to peer into the past and project Jordan's stat line for his missing seasons. Doing so, while putting Jordan in the context of the 1993-94 and 1994-95 Bulls and average teams the other three years, assuming his minutes stayed relatively constant and that he averaged 76 games a season--fewer than he played in his full seasons to account for the chance of a serious injury--yields the following projected stat lines.
Year GP MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG Win% WARP
1985 82 38.3 28.2 6.5 5.9 2.4 0.8 .736 20.4
1986 18 25.1 22.7 3.6 2.9 2.1 1.2 .732 2.9
1987 82 40.0 37.1 5.2 4.6 2.9 1.5 .758 22.7
1988 82 40.4 35.0 5.5 5.9 3.2 1.6 .816 27.0
1989 81 40.2 32.5 8.0 8.0 2.9 0.8 .832 27.8
1990 82 39.0 33.6 6.9 6.3 2.8 0.7 .807 25.6
1991 82 37.0 31.5 6.0 5.5 2.7 1.0 .811 24.0
1992 80 38.8 30.1 6.4 6.1 2.3 0.9 .756 21.6
1993 78 39.3 32.6 6.7 5.5 2.8 0.8 .773 22.4
1994 76 39.0 29.0 6.5 5.6 2.6 0.9 .730 19.4
1995 76 39.0 29.0 6.6 5.2 2.4 0.8 .704 17.8
1996 82 37.7 30.4 6.6 4.3 2.2 0.5 .762 22.1
1997 82 37.9 29.6 5.9 4.3 1.7 0.5 .714 19.1
1998 82 38.8 28.7 5.8 3.5 1.7 0.5 .665 16.2
1999 46 38.0 25.4 5.9 3.4 1.9 0.6 .650 14.0
2000 76 37.5 24.8 5.9 3.3 1.6 0.6 .599 10.9
2001 76 37.0 22.3 5.9 3.0 1.5 0.7 .571 9.1
2002 60 34.9 22.9 5.7 5.2 1.4 0.4 .566 6.5
2003 82 37.0 20.0 6.1 3.8 1.5 0.5 .545 8.1
The projection plays it conservative with Jordan's missing 1993-94 and 1994-95 seasons, suggesting a steep drop-off from the final year of the Bulls' first threepeat and worse seasons than Jordan managed in his first full year back, 1995-96. The next set of three seasons, starting with the lockout year and concluding with the 2000-01 campaign, have Jordan gently trending downward before picking up his actual numbers in 2001-02, the first of Jordan's two years with the Wizards. Other than the fact that Jordan was more of a playmaker in Washington, the projected numbers seem very reasonable in light of what Jordan did in his second and final comeback.
When we add up the projections for Jordan's missing seasons and subtract what he actually accomplished during the 17 games he played for Chicago at the tail end of the 1994-95 season while wearing the number 45, the difference is significant. Based on a relatively conservative projection, Jordan missed out on 8,702 points, more than 2,000 rebounds and nearly 1,400 assists.
Adding in these projected stats produces the following career numbers.
GP Min Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk WARP
Career 1405 53683 40994 8719 7004 3179 1140 337.5
The most obvious change is in Jordan's career point total. Had he played a full career, Jordan would have likely edged past the 40,000-point mark, becoming the first player in NBA history to reach the milestone midway through the 2002-03 season. Fittingly, if the projections are taken completely literally, Basketball-Reference.com's game log indicates Jordan would have scored his 40,000th point against his former team when the Wizards hosted the Bulls on Jan. 8, 2003.
The extra steals actually don't change Jordan's ranking, since he retired No. 2 all-time behind John Stockton and was too far behind Stockton to catch up even with the extra five seasons. However, Jordan would jump up the career assist leaderboard from No. 35 to No. 14, just ahead of Bob Cousy.
The biggest difference for Jordan comes in terms of advanced stats. Currently, he is fifth in NBA history in career Wins Above Replacement Player, Basketball Prospectus' measure of player value covering the last three decades. Jordan's projections suggest he missed out on nearly 70 WARP because of his retirements, more than players like Mitch Richmond and James Worthy totaled in their entire careers. Adding these to Jordan's total moves him clearly atop the leaderboard.
Player WARP
Michael Jordan (pro.) 337.5
Karl Malone 305.3
John Stockton 300.1
Hakeem Olajuwon 282.3
Shaquille O'Neal 280.4
Michael Jordan (act.) 269.3
While none of Jordan's peers could have competed with him for career value if he had not spent nearly five seasons watching from the sidelines, even his inflated career totals are being threatened by a new generation of superstars. Most notably, Kobe Bryant and LeBron James both started their NBA careers earlier than Jordan because they entered the NBA out of high school, giving them more time to pile up statistics--which they have done at a prodigious rate.
Using the same method that filled in Jordan's missing seasons, we completed the careers of Bryant and James. We assumed that the NBA environment in terms of pace of play, efficiency and other factors stayed constant starting with last season, and gradually transitioned Bryant and James from their current systems--Bryant's relatively fast-paced, James' one of the slowest in the league--towards average.
As with Jordan, the assumption was made that Bryant and James played 76 games a season until dropping off during their final NBA campaigns--James at age 40, like Jordan, and Bryant at 39 because he would have been 40 before the start of the next season and his numbers faded badly late in his projected career. The games-played assumption is probably conservative during the prime of the players' careers, but somewhat optimistic later in them. It did result in both players being projected to surpass Robert Parish's record of 1,611 games played, though that assumption is not unreasonable given how young both Bryant and James started.
First, the projection for Bryant.
Year GP MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG Win% WARP
1997 71 15.5 7.6 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.3 .466 1.1
1998 79 26.0 15.4 3.1 2.5 0.9 0.5 .546 5.4
1999 50 37.9 19.9 5.3 3.8 1.4 1.0 .553 8.6
2000 66 38.2 22.5 6.3 4.9 1.6 0.9 .642 11.8
2001 68 40.9 28.5 5.9 5.0 1.7 0.6 .650 13.5
2002 80 38.3 25.2 5.5 5.5 1.5 0.4 .651 15.0
2003 82 41.5 30.0 6.9 5.9 2.2 0.8 .706 20.5
2004 65 37.6 24.0 5.5 5.1 1.7 0.4 .672 13.0
2005 66 40.7 27.6 5.9 6.0 1.3 0.8 .658 13.4
2006 80 40.9 35.4 5.3 4.5 1.8 0.4 .692 18.6
2007 77 40.8 31.6 5.7 5.4 1.4 0.5 .675 16.8
2008 82 38.9 28.3 6.3 5.4 1.8 0.5 .700 18.9
2009 82 36.1 26.8 5.2 4.9 1.5 0.5 .650 14.5
2010 76 36.0 26.4 5.1 4.9 1.5 0.4 .623 11.8
2011 76 37.0 25.9 5.0 4.7 1.4 0.4 .618 11.8
2012 76 38.0 25.4 5.1 4.8 1.4 0.4 .586 10.2
2013 76 38.0 24.6 4.9 4.6 1.4 0.5 .574 9.5
2014 76 37.5 23.1 5.0 4.3 1.3 0.5 .536 7.1
2015 76 37.0 19.5 4.9 4.3 1.3 0.5 .485 4.0
2016 76 37.0 19.4 5.0 4.2 1.3 0.5 .475 3.5
2017 76 36.5 16.5 4.6 3.8 1.3 0.5 .438 1.3
2018 70 36.0 15.8 4.9 3.4 1.3 0.4 .450 1.8
Career 1626 59624 38679 8378 7344 2363 865 - 232.1
SCHOENE suggests that Bryant's production will begin to erode heavily around the age of 35, during the 2013-14 season. By the end of his career, he rates as barely better than replacement level. That indicates he'll have a hard time matching Jordan's career value in terms of WARP even if we do not account for the time he missed. Bryant fares better compared to Jordan in terms of scoring. His projected total of more than 38,000 points would allow Bryant to pass fellow Laker legend Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to become the NBA's all-time leading scorer late in the 2017-18 season--probably the last hurrah before his retirement. Still, Bryant would be hard-pressed to catch Jordan's total with the missing seasons included.
James' chances of reaching 40,000 career points are much better because he got off to a faster start than Bryant, averaging better than 20 points per game during his rookie season (when Bryant was still coming off the bench) and reaching the 30-ppg threshold during his third year. James' projected statistics are simply staggering.
Year GP MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG Win% WARP
2004 79 39.5 20.9 5.5 5.9 1.6 0.7 .543 8.2
2005 80 42.4 27.2 7.4 7.2 2.2 0.7 .752 23.5
2006 79 42.6 31.4 7.0 6.6 1.6 0.8 .741 22.6
2007 78 41.0 27.3 6.7 6.0 1.6 0.7 .690 18.1
2008 75 40.4 30.0 7.9 7.2 1.8 1.1 .775 22.6
2009 81 37.7 28.4 7.6 7.2 1.7 1.1 .839 26.9
2010 76 38.0 28.9 6.9 7.1 1.6 1.0 .792 22.6
2011 76 38.5 29.8 7.2 7.7 1.6 1.0 .780 22.2
2012 76 39.0 33.4 7.5 7.8 1.7 1.1 .801 23.7
2013 76 39.0 33.4 7.4 7.9 1.6 1.1 .788 22.9
2014 76 39.0 32.8 7.6 8.0 1.6 1.0 .773 22.1
2015 76 39.0 33.3 7.3 8.3 1.6 1.2 .761 21.3
2016 76 39.0 31.6 7.7 7.9 1.6 1.0 .723 19.0
2017 76 39.0 31.5 7.8 7.9 1.6 1.0 .700 17.6
2018 76 39.0 31.3 7.3 7.8 1.5 1.0 .695 17.2
2019 76 38.5 27.8 7.3 7.7 1.5 1.0 .667 15.3
2020 76 38.0 27.2 7.4 7.5 1.3 1.0 .646 13.8
2021 76 38.0 24.8 7.0 7.8 1.4 1.2 .624 12.5
2022 76 37.5 22.7 6.9 6.9 1.3 1.1 .555 8.3
2023 76 37.0 20.9 6.8 7.0 1.4 1.0 .526 6.5
2024 76 36.0 17.5 6.9 6.9 1.3 1.2 .520 5.9
2025 70 35.0 13.9 6.8 5.7 1.0 1.0 .459 2.2
Career 1682 65262 46412 12072 12229 2606 1690 - 375.1
Starting with 2011-12, when he will turn 27 and theoretically be in his prime, SCHOENE sees James ripping off a string of seven straight seasons of better than 30 points per game. More impressive might be the development in James' assist totals to the point where he averages as many as 8.3 a night. Along with James' rebounding totals, that would be enough to make him a nightly triple-double threat.
The projection shows James blowing past 40,000 career points during the 2020-21 campaign, not long after his 36th birthday, and piling up nearly 8,000 more points than anyone who came before him--more than 5,500 more than even Jordan's projected full career. If he fulfilled the projection, James would also retire second in league history in assists, though Jason Kidd has a chance to surpass the projected total of more than 12,000 by the time he hangs them up.
Despite never duplicating his historic 2008-09 effort in terms of WARP, projected James would be worth at least 20 wins more than a replacement-level player an amazing 10 times in his career and pile up 375.1 career WARP, easily surpassing Jordan's total from a full career. Simply put, no one can compare to the combination of how early James entered the league and what he has already accomplished at a young age. A projection is obviously no guarantee--James could decide, like Jordan, that he wants to try his hand at another sport, or his career might fall short of the 22 years we project as age catches up with him. Still, he's got a tremendous head start in threatening some remarkable records.
Even without the years he missed, Jordan's Hall of Fame enshrinement will be a special day for the basketball world. However, there could be an even bigger one coming in September 2031.
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A version of this article appeared on ESPN Insider.
Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.
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