May 26, 2009
Playoff Prospectus
Efficiency

by Kevin Pelton

Denver 120, L.A. Lakers 101 (Series tied 2-2)
Pace: 92.1
Offensive Ratings: Denver 133.6, L.A. Lakers 106.9

On a night when their star player struggled and their jumpers were not falling, the Denver Nuggets still evened the Western Conference Finals with an impressive offensive outburst. Denver built a lead on the strength of second-chance points, then held on to it and ultimately blew the game open in the fourth quarter by parading to the free-throw line and keeping the Lakers from ever being able to make up much ground.

The Nuggets did not shoot the ball well, hitting a dismal 29.2 percent of their 24 three-point attempts and an even 50 percent of their two-point tries, which is just average. In every other aspect of offense, Denver played about as well as is possible. The Nuggets attempted 49 foul shots, 20 in the fourth quarter alone, creating foul trouble and scoring efficiently. They grabbed 20 offensive rebounds, coming up with 39.2 percent of their own missed shots to extend possessions and offset the misses from downtown. Denver had just six turnovers all night, ensuring virtually every possession ended with either a shot attempt or a trip to the line. Add it up and you get an incredibly efficient offensive performance given the level of competition.

The ESPN broadcast focused extensively on the rebound differential and the Nuggets' ability to get to the free-throw line, as well as the play of Denver's reserves. Chris Andersen delivered his best performance since early in the Dallas series, grabbing 14 rebounds and blocking a pair of shots in 24 minutes of action. J.R. Smith, who seems to feed on Birdman's energy as well as that of the Pepsi Center crowd, scored 24 points and knocked down four three-pointers, and even Linas Kleiza added 10 points in 13 minutes. The contrast with the Lakers' bench, which shot a combined 7-for-27 from the field, could not have been much more dramatic.

Here's the thing, though. The Nuggets' runs did not generally come with the bench in the game, like in the series with New Orleans or the first two games against Dallas. Instead, Denver dominated when the starting lineups were in the side (counting Lamar Odom as the Lakers' sixth starter here). The Nuggets' starting five played the first 8:13 of the game and the opening 8:06 of the third quarter. In those 16 minutes of action, Denver outscored the Lakers by 13 points. The Lakers got absolutely nothing from their main role players; Trevor Ariza, Derek Fisher and Odom combined to score 13 points on 4-for-19 shooting.

The other storyline that got overlooked was Chauncey Billups' play at the point. Billups went 42 minutes, including the entire second half through when George Karl got him out with the game well in hand. In that span, he did not commit a single turnover. Billups scored 11 points in the fourth quarter and was a perfect 9-for-9 from the stripe. It may not have stood out the way it does when Billups is hitting three after three, but his play absolutely keyed the Nuggets offense.

Let us also throw some bouquets in the direction of the Denver starting frontcourt. Kenyon Martin and Nenê, playing 35 minutes apiece, scored 27 points and pulled down 28 rebounds. They controlled the paint at both ends, and offered timely scoring when the Lakers' help defense was too active. Nenê even managed to add six assists.

At one point, Jeff Van Gundy observed that every Nuggets player save Carmelo Anthony was playing about as well as possible. That's what made Denver's Game Four showing truly remarkable--that a team could score so prolifically and efficiently with its star player not only a non-factor but actively hurting the team much of the night. Whether because of the stomach virus he's been battling or for whatever reason, Anthony was unable to hit anything in the first half and he shot 3-for-16 from the field.

Anthony did find a bit of a groove in the fourth quarter, when he scored eight of his 15 points. Anthony made just one field goal in the period, spending much of his time at the free-throw line. Here, Phil Jackson made a major tactical error. Anthony's first trip to the line came with 6:43 left in the game, when he drew Trevor Ariza's fifth foul. At the time, the Lakers had pulled within 10 and were thinking "comeback," with Kobe Bryant already at the scorers' table ready to check in. Jackson had Bryant replace Ariza; presumably, had Ariza not drawn a foul, it would have been Sasha Vujacic taking a seat. Moments later, Jackson replaced Vujacic with Luke Walton, whose passing had been a factor in the Lakers making a bit of a run early in the quarter.

Alas, when Walton was on the floor earlier, he had been matched up with Kleiza. This time around, he would have to defend Anthony. Walton cannot match Anthony, which was conclusively demonstrated over the next 2:15. After a Billups miss, the next three Denver possessions went Anthony three-point play (Walton fouling), Anthony splitting two free throws (Walton fouling), Anthony assisting on a Smith three and Anthony making two free throws (Walton fouling). Mercifully, the last foul was Walton's sixth, forcing Jackson to make a change (something he resisted long enough while protesting the foul to draw a delay of game warning). It was almost painful to watch Walton try to defend Anthony, especially with the referees giving the Nuggets' star the benefit of the doubt.

What I don't understand is why Jackson would bow to the conventional wisdom of removing Ariza with five fouls. When Denver went on a run, in large part because Anthony abused Walton, there was no end-game situation for which to save Ariza. Trailing by double-digits, Jackson needed to be thinking about getting closer right then, not what was going to happen a few minutes down the line. While Ariza was hardly playing well, Walton never had a chance in that matchup.

Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.