May 24, 2009
Playoff Prospectus
A Big Road Win

by Kevin Pelton

L.A. Lakers 103, Denver 97 (L.A. Lakers lead series 2-1)
Pace: 93.3

Welcome to the first series in NBA history whose defining plays have all been inbound plays. Game Three offered yet another costly turnover as the Denver Nuggets tried to get the ball inbounds. This time, George Karl had a bigger player on the ball with 37 seconds left in a two-point game. However, Kenyon Martin first used a timeout, then directed an errant pass toward Carmelo Anthony that Trevor Ariza stole easily. The Lakers made their free throws down the stretch and Denver never again got the ball in position to tie.

Given the fact that turnovers on inbounds passes have cost the Nuggets dearly in both Games One and Three, George Karl could be forgiven spending his entire Sunday practice working solely on inbounds plays. However, getting the Denver offense untracked will require more effort. The Nuggets scored just 18 points in the fourth quarter, and over the course of the game shot a sickly 42.3 effective field-goal percentage. Centers Nenê and Chris Andersen combined to shoot 11-for-18 from the field; the rest of the team was 22-for-66 (33.3 percent).

The three-pointers that have been so potent for Denver in the postseason were also MIA. The Nuggets shot 5-for-27 as a team, with Anthony (1-for-7), J.R. Smith (2-for-10) and even Chauncey Billups (2-for-7) all major culprits.

Anthony started the game well, scoring 14 points in the first quarter and making seven of his eight free-throw attempts in the period. From there, the Lakers held him in check, as Anthony scored seven points over the final three quarters. With Anthony struggling and Billups having a relatively quiet night, Denver really could have used Smith to chip in some additional scoring. A three-pointer to end the third quarter turned out to be Smith's only highlight. He missed 11 of his 15 shot attempts.

At the other end of the floor, fouls and Kobe Bryant turned out to be the Nuggets' undoing. The two factors were not unrelated. Bryant continued his excellent series by attempting 17 free throws last night and making 15 of them. If you're scoring at home, Bryant is now just two attempts at the foul line away from tying the 42 he had in the entire seven-game series with Houston. Predictably, the improved ability to score easily at the free-throw line has also translated into more makeable shot attempts, and Bryant added 12-for-24 shooting to score 41 points in 41 minutes with just one turnover. He was at his best after halftime, scoring 13 points in the third quarter and 12 in a stint of less than nine minutes in the final period.

Three games into this series, Karl has yet to find a workable long-term solution to defending Bryant. If I were coaching the Nuggets, I would consider giving some of the minutes currently going to Anthony Carter or even Linas Kleiza (who does not match up with Bryant) to defensive specialist Renaldo Balkman (who is nursing a sprained ankle that kept him out of Game Two, though he was available last night). Balkman's size would offer a very different look, and he's athletic enough to keep up with Bryant. Admittedly, this would be a desperate measure, but Bryant has scored 40-plus twice in the three games of this series. Desperation isn't exactly out of the question.

Game Three offered the best combined contributions in this series from Bryant and Pau Gasol, who scored a series-high 20 points on 7-for-12 shooting. The duo and Trevor Ariza, who canned three triples, provided the majority of the Lakers' scoring. In truth, the Lakers' role players (and Lamar Odom, reduced to that role since injuring his back) had a rough night. Derek Fisher was no more able to hit open shots than he has been at any other point in the playoff run, and the bench save Odom contributed seven points on 3-for-11 shooting. Big nights from Bryant cover a lot of holes.

The bigger perspective is this: Through three games, the Lakers have outscored Denver by five points, and the combined single-game margins total a paltry 11 points. So far, these teams have been as evenly-matched as can be, and the Lakers have gotten the better of two of the three close finishes--in large part because of inbounds passing. All of that does make Game Four a critical one for the Nuggets. I find Game Four to be a much bigger one than Game 3 of a series that starts out tied 1-1, since there's an enormous difference between going back on the road tied at 2-2 and going in trailing 3-1 and needing a victory to stay alive. That's the scenario that awaits Denver on Monday.

Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.