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May 20, 2009
Playoff Prospectus
First Blood

by Kevin Pelton

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L.A. Lakers 105, Denver 103 (L.A. Lakers lead series 1-0)
Pace: 94.5
Offensive Ratings: L.A. Lakers 109.9, Denver 110.2

Make no mistake: The L.A. Lakers stole this game. Down as many as 13 to the Denver Nuggets in the first quarter and trailing for much of the game, the Lakers took the lead with 30 seconds to play and came up with just enough big plays down the stretch to hold serve at home in Game One.

The Lakers relied on a vintage effort from Kobe Bryant. Freed from the shackles of Shane Battier, Bryant exploded for 40 points, 18 of them in the fourth quarter, on 34 shooting possessions. He also had just one turnover in his 43 minutes of action. The Nuggets rotated defenders on Bryant, using Dahntay Jones, Anthony Carter and J.R. Smith in seemingly equal doses, with Carmelo Anthony getting a couple of opportunities as well. None of those defenders proved to be the answer. Jones, following the regular-season trend, picked up three fouls in his 16 minutes of action; Smith lacks the requisite focus and Carter is simply too small to contain Bryant on a regular basis.

The most telling play of Bryant's night put the game away. After Trevor Ariza picked off Carter's inbounds pass to give L.A. back the ball with a two-point lead, the Lakers worked the ball to Bryant, who calmly beat Carter off the dribble and drew the foul. His two free throws gave the Lakers a two-possession advantage and effectively ended the game. Bryant wasn't choosing between the equally unsavory options provided by the Rockets. Instead, he was dictating his own terms.

At times, Denver was exceptionally aggressive in defending Bryant, trapping him off pick-and-rolls and paying extra attention to him with help defenders. One notable play saw two Nuggets defenders plant themselves at the edge of the free-throw line on the ball side, ready to offer help. When Bryant reversed the ball to the opposite corner, Carter had to travel nearly half the court to recover back to Trevor Ariza, who easily blew by him for a drive that ended with him drawing a shooting foul. If that's the alternative, Denver is better off living with a high-scoring Bryant.

If the Nuggets must use the 48 hours between the first two games of this series to rethink their coverage on Bryant, the Lakers have to address defending Anthony. Shaking off his poor regular-season play against the Lakers, Anthony was extremely efficient en route to 39 points, making 14 of his 20 shot attempts, knocking down four three-pointers and adding seven free throws.

All things considered, Denver has to be quite pleased with its offensive outing, having put up 103 points in 94 possessions. The Nuggets left a few more points at the free-throw line, missing 12 times in 35 attempts. Most of the night, Denver got what it wanted offensively, with Anthony and Billups controlling the flow and big men Nenê and Kenyon Martin (a combined 29 points on 13-of-23 shooting) getting open looks in the paint.

The Nuggets offense did stall down the stretch. They scored just once in the five-possession span that saw the Lakers go from down four to up four. It's tough to say there was a lesson in the empty possessions, however. Anthony was called for a borderline charge, while Ariza's steal of the inbounds pass was largely a fluke (albeit one caused by the 6'2" Carter being pressured by the 6'10" Lamar Odom as he looked for a passing lane). Another stop came when Chris Andersen missed a makeable look in the paint off of a pick-and-roll with Billups. Andersen would not even have been in the game had Nenê not fouled out moments earlier.

At the other end, the Lakers offense was largely the Bryant show. The only two Lakers players in double figures in field-goal attempts were Bryant and Derek Fisher, many of the latter's shots coming off Bryant feeds. Pau Gasol was strangely absent from the offense at times, in part because Denver did a good job defending him in the post, but also because the Lakers weren't looking inside as frequently as normal.

Besides Bryant, two things worked in favor of the Lakers' offense. The first was hitting 11 three-pointers in 25 attempts, with Fisher (3-of-6) sticking several big triples and one of four the team hit in the fourth quarter. The other was the offensive glass, with Gasol (six offensive rebounds) leading the Lakers to grab 36.2 percent of their available misses. The Nuggets were willing to concede the second chances in order to improve their pre-shot defense, which manifested itself in their fronting players in the post and in frequent switches of picks on the perimeter, particularly during the first half. That left Gasol and the other L.A. bigs matched up at times with smaller defenders or put Denver at a disadvantage in trying to box out. George Karl seemed to play a little more conventionally during the second half, though the difference on the scoreboard was negligible.

The quick turnaround from the Houston series may have been a factor as the Nuggets jumped out to an early lead. Bryant said afterward he sensed the team's lack of energy and decided to go on the attack. That is Bryant at his best, and last night it proved the difference between victory and defeat.

Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.

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<< Previous Article
Western Conference Fin... (05/19)
<< Previous Column
Playoff Prospectus (05/18)
Next Column >>
Playoff Prospectus (05/21)
Next Article >>
Eastern Conference Fin... (05/20)

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