Home Unfiltered Articles Players Baseball Prospectus
Basketball Prospectus home
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Click here for Important Basketball Prospectus Premium Information!

<< Previous Article
Playoff Prospectus (05/13)
<< Previous Column
Playoff Prospectus (05/13)
Next Column >>
Playoff Prospectus (05/15)
Next Article >>
Playoff Prospectus (05/15)

May 14, 2009
Playoff Prospectus
The Nuggets Advance

by Kevin Pelton

Printer-
friendly
Contact
Author

Denver 124, Dallas 110 (Denver wins series 4-1)
Pace: 88.5
Offensive Ratings: Denver 139.4, Dallas 124.9

Game Five goes in the books as the most offensive-minded game of the postseason to date. The teams combined for 234 points, and it had little to do with the Denver Nuggets pushing the pace at altitude. For long stretches, neither team could get a stop. Ultimately, that defensive impotence--a shortcoming since November--brought the Dallas Mavericks' season to an end. The way this series played out will never sit well with the Mavericks or their fans, but there was never any question who the better team was. The Nuggets played Dallas to a draw on the road and solidly beat them at home. They'll need to tighten up their defense from the last two games heading into the Western Conference Finals, but the way Denver has played in the postseason--and before that over the closing month of the regular season--indicates we should have a very competitive series ahead of us.

Let's talk about Carmelo Anthony, professional scorer. Even though the Mavericks kept him off the free-throw line, Anthony put up 30 points on 22 shot attempts with just one turnover in Game Five. That was right on his series-long 30-point scoring average, which came on 60.4 percent True Shooting. He's scoring every way--hitting jumpers, getting to the rim, creating his own offense, playing with and off teammates. The maturation of Anthony is one of the best storylines of these playoffs.

Of course, Anthony has nothing on Chauncey Billups in terms of offensive efficiency, as Billups reminded us again last night. He knocked down 10 of his 16 shot attempts, scored 28 points, handed out 12 assists and had two turnovers in 40 minutes. With Anthony and Billups as the cornerstones and J.R. Smith dropping buckets in waves, the Nuggets seem unstoppable at times. Dallas did briefly find an answer during the fourth quarter by going to a zone defense, but after a timeout Denver adjusted with a great play that sent Billups from one corner to the other. Kenyon Martin picked the wing man in the 2-3 zone, Brandon Bass, and Billups got an open three-point look that he knocked down. Rick Carlisle quickly came out of the zone.

The Mavericks were able to hang around on the strength of their own prolific offense. Dirk Nowitzki had about as good a series as is possible in a losing effort, putting up 32 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists in Game Five. He posted a 66.0 True Shooting Percentage in the series while averaging 34.4 points, and did it playing against tough defense from Kenyon Martin. Despite yesterday's All-NBA First Team nod (which robbed Chris Paul of a spot, a casualty of the league being overly stringent about positions), it wasn't a great season for Nowitzki, but it ended on an individual high note.

Bass can also sleep soundly knowing he did everything he could for Dallas in Game Five. He scored 13 of his 17 points in the final quarter, leading a short-lived comeback by wreaking havoc on the offensive glass. Josh Howard gets a complete pass. Just to be out there on the court took an incredible amount of grit for Howard, who will have to undergo surgery on his ankle this summer. Jason Kidd had five turnovers, some of them unbecoming for a point guard in his 15th year, but he gamely played 44 minutes with 19 points and nine assists and helped spark the Mavericks in the third quarter by hitting from the perimeter.

Some other Dallas players have things to think about this offseason. Jason Terry could never get it going in this series, failing to supply the outside shooting the Mavericks could have used to run with the Denver offense. Erick Dampier was outplayed by Nenê in every facet of the game (including getting outscored 80-15). At his best, he was a non-factor instead of actively hurting his team. And everyone, including Carlisle, needs to take responsibility for upgrading a defense that has slipped badly since Dallas was legitimately contending for championships.

One task for George Karl before the Western Conference Finals start later this week or early the next: Get Chris Andersen back up to speed. I'm not sure how much Andersen was still hampered by the stomach flu that kept him out of Game Four, but he was wildly ineffective last night, picking up five fouls in 14 minutes. Andersen was the only Nuggets player with a negative plus-minus, a far cry from his usual impact off the bench. Andersen also struggled with foul trouble in Game Three, prior to taking ill, so this is a somewhat disturbing trend for a guy who has played a crucial role in the Nuggets' success.

Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.

0 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Playoff Prospectus (05/13)
<< Previous Column
Playoff Prospectus (05/13)
Next Column >>
Playoff Prospectus (05/15)
Next Article >>
Playoff Prospectus (05/15)

RECENTLY AT BASKETBALL PROSPECTUS
State of Basketball Prospectus: A Brief Anno...
Tuesday Truths: March-at-Last Edition
Easy Bubble Solver: The Triumphant Return
Premium Article Bubbles of their Own Making: Villanova, Temp...
Tuesday Truths: Crunch Time Edition


MORE BY KEVIN PELTON
2009-05-18 - Playoff Prospectus: Game Sevens
2009-05-16 - Rest or Rust: Quantifying the Value of Time ...
2009-05-15 - Playoff Prospectus: Not Done Yet
2009-05-14 - Playoff Prospectus: The Nuggets Advance
2009-05-13 - Playoff Prospectus: Game Fives
2009-05-12 - Playoff Prospectus: 8-0
2009-05-11 - Playoff Prospectus: Yao Who?
More...

MORE PLAYOFF PROSPECTUS
2009-05-20 - Playoff Prospectus: First Blood
2009-05-18 - Playoff Prospectus: Game Sevens
2009-05-15 - Playoff Prospectus: Not Done Yet
2009-05-14 - Playoff Prospectus: The Nuggets Advance
2009-05-13 - Playoff Prospectus: Game Fives
2009-05-12 - Playoff Prospectus: 8-0
2009-05-11 - Playoff Prospectus: Yao Who?
More...

Basketball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2013 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.