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Because the series between the Dallas Mavericks and the Denver Nuggets was the first of the NBA's four semifinal matchups to tip off, the teams got three days off between Tuesday's Game Two Denver win and the series resuming today in the heart of Texas. Good thing for Rick Carlisle and the Dallas coaching staff, because they needed plenty of time to regroup after two double-digit defeats on the road. Thus far in the postseason, the Nuggets have been as impressive as any team. So how can the Mavericks get back in the series with home court in their favor? Here are five things Dallas can do to get back in the series.
1. Limit Turnovers. This key should be written at the top of the whiteboard in the Mavericks locker room as large as possible and underlined multiple times. It is almost impossible to overstate how much Denver has relied on creating turnovers this postseason. Nuggets opponents are turning the ball over 17.4 percent of the time, or a little more than one in every six plays. No other NBA team is forcing turnovers more than 14.7 percent of the time, and the difference between Denver and the second-place L.A. Lakers is larger than the gap between the Lakers and San Antonio, which ranks 12th out of 16 teams.
This is nothing new for George Karl, whose 1990s Seattle SuperSonics teams were similarly reliant on forcing turnovers to get stops and converting them at the other end of the floor. Not only does a turnover against the Nuggets mean a scoreless possession, it also often turns into two points at the other end because Denver is so good at going from defense to offense and comes up with so many steals (a little over 10 a game).
Dallas did a decent job of holding on to the ball in Game Two, turning it over 13 times. In Game One, however, it was turnovers--nine in a span of 13 possessions--that fueled the Nuggets' run to take control of the game. Jason Kidd was a culprit in that stretch, and he has 10 turnovers in two games in this series after committing just three total in the first round against San Antonio.
2. Get to the Last Five Minutes. Denver has established a clear pattern in the postseason, opening up big leads late in the third or early fourth quarters. Both games at Pepsi Center fit that mold. In Game One, the Nuggets went on an 11-0 run starting two minutes into the fourth. In Game Two, the Mavericks went from tied with three minutes left in the third to down 17 less than nine minutes later.
Should Dallas be able to withstand this period, Denver will be out of its comfort zone. The closest playoff game the Nuggets have played was Game Three at New Orleans, which saw the Hornets walk their way to a lead in the period usually owned by Denver. The Nuggets mounted a late run but fell short in their only loss so far.
3. Don't Let the Nuggets Have Fun. Led by reserves Chris "Birdman" Andersen and J.R. Smith, Denver plays a passionate brand of basketball. That's especially true at home, but in Game Four at the New Orleans Arena the Nuggets got their kicks from seeing Hornets fans stream for the exits in the third quarter. In their win, New Orleans was able to match Denver's energy thanks to a lift from little-used reserve Sean Marks. Someone like excitable Ryan Hollins could provide a similar lift for Dallas. Another way to take the Nuggets out of their game might be to step up the physical nature of the series. That doesn't mean losing one's head as Rafer Alston and Derek Fisher did in earning suspensions early this week, but there are safer ways to get the message across. Denver's Kenyon Martin helped set the tone for the series with his hard foul--later ruled a flagrant--on Dirk Nowitzki.
4. Double Nenê. If any single Nuggets player has created matchup problems for the Mavericks in this series, it's been Nenê in the post. Erick Dampier doesn't have the quickness to match Nenê, Hollins lacks the girth and Brandon Bass the length. As a result, Nenê has 49 points through two games, shooting 68 percent from the field and attempting 20 combined free throws. Dallas has actually outplayed Denver with the respective starting lineups on the floor, but can enhance that advantage by turning Nenê into a passer and forcing Dahntay Jones--who missed all three of his shots in Game Two--to make open jumpers.
5. Bench the Three-Guard Lineup. In part, this one comes down to the health of Josh Howard, who has vowed to play in Game Three. Naturally, the Mavericks' chances are much better with Howard on the floor. Not only is he one of Dallas' leading scorers, but also the best matchup for Anthony when healthy. Carlisle must spot Howard and Antoine Wright, who will likely start alongside him at shooting guard, to make sure one of them two players is on the floor at all times. The Mavericks need their size.
Looking at the plus-minus numbers from Game Two reveals how poorly the three-guard lineup of Kidd, Jose Juan Barea and Jason Terry played. That group was outscored by 13 points in fewer than eight minutes of action. Dallas was +6 with Howard at small forward, and at least competitive with Wright at the position (-7 in 25 minutes). While Carlisle might be able to get away with his three guards on the floor against Smith, during the fourth quarter Kidd was forced to defend Anthony while giving up four inches and 20 pounds. It's no surprise that Denver was able to exploit that matchup.
The Mavericks were beaten twice soundly on the road, but the losses really came down to two big Nuggets runs that proved the difference. If Dallas makes a few strategic changes and holds on to the basketball, those runs could dry up and the Mavericks could build up more margin to withstand them. Do that and Dallas still has plenty of opportunity to make this a competitive series.
Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.
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