Home Unfiltered Articles Players Baseball Prospectus
Basketball Prospectus home
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Click here for Important Basketball Prospectus Premium Information!

<< Previous Article
Playoff Prospectus (05/05)
<< Previous Column
Playoff Prospectus (05/05)
Next Column >>
Playoff Prospectus (05/08)
Next Article >>
Playoff Prospectus (05/08)

May 6, 2009
Playoff Prospectus
No Surprises

by Kevin Pelton

Printer-
friendly
Contact
Author

Cleveland 99, Atlanta 72 (Cleveland leads series 1-0)
Pace: 79.0
Offensive Ratings: Cleveland 126.4, Atlanta 90.4

The Atlanta Hawks led early and kept things close through the middle of the third quarter, but ultimately things played basically to the script in Game One of their series with the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavaliers relied on LeBron James and Mo Williams to power the offense while shutting down the Hawks at the other end.

We're running out of ways to describe James' brilliance. It's seemed so effortless throughout this postseason, albeit against lesser competition, that it's easy to take James for granted. He scored 34 points in 34 minutes and approximately 56 possessions, needing 20 shot attempts. I'm not sure where Atlanta is going to find an answer for James, who scored 22 in the first half. Certainly, a rusty Marvin Williams didn't do the trick during his 13 minutes of action.

The better news for Cleveland was the team outscoring Atlanta by 14 points in the 14 minutes James spent on the bench, including solid stretches to start the second and fourth quarters. Williams was key during these stretches, scoring 21 points on 7-for-12 shooting with four three-pointers. With Williams scoring, Delonte West served as playmaker, handing out nine assists. West's presence is big for Williams in this series, because if the Hawks shift Mike Bibby away from Williams, West is nearly as capable of making them pay.

Atlanta's going to have to find some ways to generate offense as well, having scored 28 points in the second half and just 11 in the fourth quarter. Williams wasn't the spark the Hawks hoped he'd be, scoring one point in 13 minutes while missing both of his shots. Joe Johnson was quiet, attempting 10 shots in 39 minutes and never getting to the free-throw line. He also coughed it up five times.

That left Atlanta's offense to Bibby, who knocked down five three-pointers and finished with 19 points and eight assists, and Josh Smith, who scored a team-high 22 points. None of the Hawks' role players were able to step up, including five points from Flip Murray, who missed all six of his three-point attempts off the bench. A hobbled Al Horford has contributed little in the two games he's played since spraining his ankle, and Zaza Pachulia was ineffective off the bench. If Atlanta doesn't get more scoring soon--and the Hawks struggled to score even against a lesser Miami defense in the opening round--the Cavaliers' second series is going to be almost as short as their first.

Denver 117, Dallas 105 (Denver leads series 2-0)
Pace: 91.1
Offensive Ratings: Denver 128.8, Dallas 114.9

I think I'm falling for the Denver Nuggets. There's something captivating about the brand of basketball the Nuggets play, especially at the Pepsi Center. When J.R. Smith and The Birdman start jumping around, it's hard not to get caught up in the excitement. It's all quite reminiscent of the George Karl Sonics teams I grew up on. Karl might have had better teams since then--the Milwaukee Bucks came within a game of the NBA Finals in 2001, after all--but none has so captured the spirit of those teams, from the up-tempo style to the depth to the combination of offense and defense that feed off each other.

The recipe Denver has established, at least at home, is to play close for two-and-a-half quarters before pulling away late in the third or in the fourth. Last night's run came at the start of the final period--a 16-2 spurt that ended the Mavericks' hopes of coming away with a split on the road before they could blink. While the reserves were in the game, it was Carmelo Anthony that led the way, scoring 10 points in a span of less than five minutes. But, as usual, it was Andersen (+24) and Smith (+27) who were on the floor for the Nuggets' best basketball.

Dallas actually got a big game from its reserves. Jason Terry caught fire in the third quarter after starting the period, and his 21 points helped stave off Denver's push. Big men Ryan Hollins and James Singleton scored eight points apiece, and the Mavericks' bench combined for 52 as a team to outscore Denver's potent second unit (37).

Add in a huge night for Dirk Nowitzki, who got to the free-throw line 13 times and shot better than 50 percent from the field to score 35 points, and this should have been a good chance for Dallas to steal a game on the road. However, the loss of Josh Howard when he aggravated the right ankle he sprained in Game One six minutes into this one proved costly. Without Howard, Rick Carlisle had no choice but to play Antoine Wright 30 minutes to match up with Anthony. That required an offensive sacrifice, but the Mavericks essentially played even (-1) with Wright on the floor. The bulk of the Nuggets' fourth-quarter run came after Wright checked out to get a brief rest.

Dallas simply could not get enough stops. The Nuggets shot 50 percent from the field and got to the free-throw line 40 times. Nenê has been a nightmare for the Mavericks to stop, scoring 49 points on 68 percent shooting during the two games. He is simply too quick for Erick Dampier in the post, and too big for Dallas' other post players. Smith scored 21 points in 25 minutes off the bench and Chauncey Billups offered timely shooting, taking 12 shots in 39 minutes and making eight of them to score 18 points while handing out eight assists.

We'll see how the Mavericks respond to going back home for Games Three and Four. New Orleans was able to hand Denver its only postseason loss with home-court advantage in Game Three--but the Nuggets then won Game Four by 58 points, so it's hard to say they've exactly struggled on the road. Cleveland has yet to lose a game, but based on the quality of competition, nobody has played better than Denver so far this postseason. Certainly, no one is having more fun.

Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.

0 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Playoff Prospectus (05/05)
<< Previous Column
Playoff Prospectus (05/05)
Next Column >>
Playoff Prospectus (05/08)
Next Article >>
Playoff Prospectus (05/08)

RECENTLY AT BASKETBALL PROSPECTUS
State of Basketball Prospectus: A Brief Anno...
Tuesday Truths: March-at-Last Edition
Easy Bubble Solver: The Triumphant Return
Premium Article Bubbles of their Own Making: Villanova, Temp...
Tuesday Truths: Crunch Time Edition


MORE BY KEVIN PELTON
2009-05-09 - A Maverick Plan: Five Keys to a Comeback
2009-05-09 - Playoff Prospectus: Very Offensive
2009-05-08 - Playoff Prospectus: The Cavs Keep Rolling
2009-05-06 - Playoff Prospectus: No Surprises
2009-05-05 - Playoff Prospectus: Hawks/Cavaliers Preview
2009-05-05 - Playoff Prospectus: First Blood
2009-05-04 - Playoff Prospectus: Rockets/Lakers Preview
More...

MORE PLAYOFF PROSPECTUS
2009-05-10 - Playoff Prospectus: Controversy
2009-05-09 - Playoff Prospectus: Very Offensive
2009-05-08 - Playoff Prospectus: The Cavs Keep Rolling
2009-05-06 - Playoff Prospectus: No Surprises
2009-05-05 - Playoff Prospectus: Hawks/Cavaliers Preview
2009-05-05 - Playoff Prospectus: First Blood
2009-05-04 - Playoff Prospectus: Rockets/Lakers Preview
More...

Basketball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2013 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.