May 4, 2009
Playoff Prospectus
Starting and Ending

by Kevin Pelton

Atlanta 91, Miami 78 (Atlanta wins series 4-3)
Pace: 80.6
Offensive Ratings: Atlanta 110.2, Miami 99.1

This series ended as it began, with a game that was long since decided by the time the last five minutes rolled around. It ended with all seven games decided by double figures, just the second time in NBA history that's happened in a seven-game series. That figures to do little to dampen the enthusiasm of the Atlanta Hawks, who advanced in the playoffs for the first time in a decade. This time, Atlanta pulled away in the second quarter. Dwyane Wade's heroics were unable to make a dent in the third quarter, and the Hawks caught fire from downtown in the fourth to make it a rout.

Ultimately, this series told us what we know going in: Wade is amazing, but Atlanta has the stronger team. That was exacerbated in Game Seven by the injury situation. While Al Horford was able to return at center for the Hawks and play 32 minutes, Jermaine O'Neal was essentially a scratch. O'Neal got on the floor late in the first quarter, got called for two fouls, missed a jumper and his day was done.

Erik Spoelstra used two very different looks in replacing O'Neal. Defensive specialist Joel Anthony got the start and played most of the first 19 minutes of the game, with O'Neal and Jamaal Magloire giving him a short rest. With the Heat struggling to score, Spoelstra decided at the five-minute mark of the second quarter to go small. Michael Beasley started the second half alongside Udonis Haslem in an undersized lineup, but also a more potent offensive one. Beasley scored 17 points on 7-for-12 shooting and Haslem was the only other Heat role player to score in double figures. Miami played even with the small lineup, but was -11 with Anthony in the middle (excluding garbage time) and -10 during the brief stints for O'Neal and Magloire.

Spoelstra's second move looking for offense was to move Wade to point guard a minute into the fourth quarter, putting another shooter (Daequan Cook) in the game. Cook got up just one shot attempt in 17 minutes of play and was no more effective on offense than Mario Chalmers (1-for-6 from the field) had been while he was on the floor. James Jones (1-for-5) struggled too, and with Jamario Moon sidelined since Game Three, Spoelstra's other options would have meant going deep into his bench for Chris Quinn or Yakhouba Diawara. At some point, there's nothing a coach can do.

It's a shame Wade couldn't get more help. He scored nearly 40 percent of the Heat's points, facing heavy defensive pressure and his own back. You could complain that Wade spent too much time on the perimeter in this series--and, generally speaking, Miami won when Wade hit the three and lost when he was missing--but there's only so much pounding in the paint he can take. The third quarter can serve as the enduring memory of Wade's 2008-09 season. He scored 11 points in the period; the rest of his teammates combined for five points in 12 minutes.

The Hawks got the star turn they needed from their own go-to guy. Joe Johnson started out by missing his first five shots and was scoreless in the first quarter before he caught fire from beyond the arc. Johnson would eventually make six three-pointers en route to 27 points. His turnaround wasn't limited to scoring. Johnson also had four assists to one turnover, having recorded more turnovers than assists previously in the series, and came up with five steals.

The much-maligned Josh Smith also came through for the Hawks. Smith was defended by Beasley throughout the second half, and Atlanta worked the rookie away from the ball for lob finishes that Smith converted. His 21 points came on 7-for-12 shooting, and Smith added nine rebounds.

As for Horford, he might not have made much of an impact in the box score (seven points, three rebounds). What his return did primarily was put things back in order for the Hawks. Zaza Pachulia returned to the bench, coming off with eight points and four rebounds. That, in turn, took Solomon Jones out of the lineup and allowed Mike Woodson to go to a trusted seven-man rotation.

Denver 109, Dallas 95 (Denver leads series 1-0)
Pace: 94.3
Offensive Ratings: Denver 114.9, Dallas 101.3

Bench play could make the difference for the Denver Nuggets in this series. It unquestionably did in Game One. The Nuggets trailed by eight points after one quarter, turning things around in the second with Chris Andersen, Chucky Atkins and J.R. Smith on the floor. The reserves powered another run in the late third and early fourth quarters, this one a 15-2 surge reminiscent of Denver's big runs against New Orleans in the first round that gave the Nuggets a comfortable lead.

All three players ended up scoring in double figures--15 for Smith, 12 for Carter (along with four assists, shooting 6-for-8) and 11 for Andersen, who added six rebounds and six blocks. Their plus-minus numbers also tell the story of their dominant impact on the game. Carter was +15, Smith +22 and Andersen a remarkable +28 in as many minutes. In the 20 minutes the Birdman spent on the bench, Denver was outscored by 14 points.

The Dallas Mavericks started hot behind Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard. Nowitzki scored 13 of the Mavericks' first 17 points, while Howard had 11 points early in the second quarter before briefly leaving the game after turning his right ankle (not the ankle which bothered Howard late in the regular season and will ultimately require postseason surgery; that's his left). Dallas was hit hard by (minor) ankle injuries in the first half, with Erick Dampier also having to head back to the locker room when he turned his left ankle. Neither player was the same thereafter, Howard scoring just five points the rest of the game and Dampier finishing with three points and six rebounds in 22 minutes.

Defensively, George Karl decided to generally play Nowitzki straight up. In the early going, that allowed Nowitzki to shoot over the top of Kenyon Martin. Andersen had a good run on Nowitzki defensively, and ultimately Dirk finished with 28 points, shooting 12-of-22 from the field. Choosing not to double Nowitzki limited the looks for the rest of the Mavericks, and Howard and Jason Kidd (who was left free on the perimeter) were the lone other players to score in double figures.

Things fell apart for Dallas when the team suddenly started turning the ball over in the fourth quarter. During the Nuggets' run, the Mavericks had nine turnovers in a span of 13 possessions. Kidd coughed it up eight times and Terry four as Dallas committed 20 turnovers as a team.

Kidd and company held Chauncey Billups quiet on offense. The Denver point guard scored six points and handed out six assists with four turnovers--more than he had in the first four games of the series against New Orleans. To pick up for Billups, the Nuggets turned to the bench and Nenê. The center out-quicked Dampier to score 24 points on 9-for-13 shooting in his best effort of the postseason so far. Playing primarily against Howard, Carmelo Anthony had an efficient 23-point outing, needing 13 shooting possessions.

One surprise from Game One was how much time Jose Juan Barea got for the Mavericks, starting and playing 23 minutes. Antoine Wright ended up playing mostly at small forward to match up with Anthony, and was a -10 in his minutes. Still, Wright seems like a better fit as the starter alongside Kidd before giving way to Terry for the lion's share of the minutes, allowing Howard to conserve his energy by defending non-scorer Dahntay Jones.

Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.