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WHEN THE NUGGETS HAVE THE BALL
Nuggets Offensive Rating: 112.0 (7th NBA) Regular Season, 122.7 (1st) Playoffs
Mavericks Defensive Rating: 109.7 (16th) Regular Season, 107.2 (7th) Playoffs
Based on the numbers, this should be where the Denver Nuggets win this series. A top-10 defense in both 2006-07 and 2007-08, the Dallas Mavericks slipped to slightly below average on the defensive end this season under Rick Carlisle. Against San Antonio, the Mavericks were decent defensively, not great. Tony Parker continued a season-long trend of point guards torching the Dallas perimeter D, and San Antonio's shooting struggles from distance seemed to have relatively little to do with what the Mavericks did defensively.
The Nuggets were the league's most efficient offense in the opening round, and it wasn't was particularly close. Denver shot 48.5 percent from three-point range and got outstanding series from both Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups.
Everything in this series will start with defending Billups, and the good news for Dallas is that Billups is a very different style of player than Parker and the other lightning-quick youngsters who have given the backcourt of Jason Kidd and Jose Juan Barea problems. Kidd's size means Billups in the post isn't the mismatch it often is; Kidd should be able to stay in front of Billups on the perimeter. Lo and behold, Billups was quiet in the regular-season series, averaging 14.5 points and shooting a paltry 29.4 percent on two-pointers.
Anthony had far more success against the Mavericks, averaging 31.3 points on 50 percent shooting. Dallas apparently wants to avoid having Josh Howard defend Anthony, though that will be impossible down the stretch because the other options are Antoine Wright and James Singleton, who see little time. Wright gives up size, while using deep reserve Singleton--who played a total of 18 minutes in the first round--would be reaching. Anthony remade himself in the series win over the Hornets by serving as playmaker and handing out 5.2 assists per game.
Another favorable matchup for Denver comes when J.R. Smith checks in alongside Billups--something which should happen frequently, with Dahntay Jones' services as a stopper on the perimeter less crucial than they were against Chris Paul. At 6'6", Smith towers over the 6'0" Barea and the 6'2" Jason Terry if Kidd is on Billups.
Lastly, keep an eye on Nenê in this series. He was surprisingly quiet against New Orleans, though that wasn't much of a story because his teammates were playing so well. Nenê and Erick Dampier are a good matchup in the post, and one that the Nuggets center should ultimately have the better of because of his superior quickness.
WHEN THE MAVERICKS HAVE THE BALL
Mavericks Offensive Rating: 112.6 (6th) Regular Season, 115.2 (3rd) Playoffs
Nuggets Defensive Rating: 107.9 (8th) Regular Season, 95.6 (2nd) Playoffs
Both teams stepped up their performance at this end of the floor in the opening round, improving on areas that were already strengths. That should make for an entertaining battle.
The marquee showdown pits Dirk Nowitzki against Kenyon Martin. With little fanfare, Martin has developed into something of a premier defender at power forward because of his ability to step out and play on the perimeter. Martin's lockdown work on David West, who shot 40 percent from the field in the first round, was key to Denver's success. The level of difficulty goes up a notch in this round with Nowitzki, who has more size, more range and finishes better. He carried a heavy offensive load against the Nuggets this season, averaging 30.0 points, but was not especially efficient (55.6 percent True Shooting).
Howard's regular season was a disappointment, but his play in the first round was a major reason the Mavericks had such an unexpectedly easy time of things against San Antonio. Howard increased his scoring average from 18.0 points per game to 18.8. More important was his improved efficiency, including a 62.0 percent True Shooting Percentage, way up from 53.6 percent in the regular season. Anthony did a good job of defending Peja Stojakovic in the opening round, and his defense will be important again in this series.
Jason Terry was the lone key Dallas player to have a rough time of it on offense against the Spurs, shooting 37.8 percent on two-point shots. The Sixth Man Award winner can counter the bench production Denver gets from Smith and Chris Andersen in a way that the Hornets were unable to do. Jones figures to get the assignment of defending Terry when both players are in the game. The more interesting decision comes when the Nuggets play Billups and Smith in the backcourt and the Mavericks have Kidd and Terry at guard. The best matchup might mean cross-matching Billups on Terry, with Smith matching up with Kidd.
Wright figures to return to the starting lineup in order to get the first crack at defending Anthony. That puts Barea back in the role of energizer off the bench, a luxury Dallas could not afford playing San Antonio. Make no mistake, however. The all-Jason backcourt of Kidd and Terry will get the vast majority of playing time and will finish games for the Mavericks.
PREDICTION
Even though this is a matchup of a second seed against a sixth seed, the Western Conference was tight enough that Dallas did Denver no favor for this series by pulling the upset over San Antonio. There's no huge, glaring advantage for either side, but the Nuggets are the favorites because so many differences work in their favor:
- The two teams were nearly identical on offense in the regular season, but Denver has the edge at the defensive end.
- The Nuggets' point differential (+3.4) was substantially better than the Mavericks' (+1.9).
- Though Dallas played a very good series against San Antonio, Denver had arguably the best performance of any team in the league in dispatching New Orleans handily.
- The Nuggets swept the season series. Five of the seven winners in the opening round so far won the season series; the other two tied them.
- Home-court advantage.
Add them all up and while a Dallas win would be no stunner, it would be an upset. Denver should control this series and advance to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 1985.
Nuggets in 6
Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.
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