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Having selected my All-Defensive Teams last week and made my pick for MVP yesterday, it's time to fill out the rest of my mythical awards ballot.
For Rookie of the Year and the Sixth Man Award, I've listed the top players in terms of WARP as well as adding in their net plus-minus from 82games.com.
Rookie of the Year
Player Win% WARP Net+/-
Brook Lopez .564 7.6 +0.5
Kevin Love .593 7.5 -1.3
Marc Gasol .552 7.1 -4.4
Greg Oden .599 4.9 +1.6
Derrick Rose .491 4.7 -10.1
Russell Westbrook .494 4.3 +4.9
The numbers love the rookie big men this year. While it's guards--Rose, Westbrook, O.J. Mayo and Eric Gordon--who have gotten most of the attention in this year's deep rookie crop, centers Brook Lopez and Marc Gasol and forward Kevin Love have put up the stronger individual statistics.
What's interesting to note here is that the plus-minus numbers have not been as strong for the rookies as their box-score stats have been. That's generally true of young players. Rose's exceptionally poor net plus-minus rating might be a fluke; his adjusted plus-minus is in fact slightly positive (+0.52).
Without any fanfare, Lopez has put up 18 double-doubles and ranks in the league's top 10 in both field-goal percentage and blocks per game. Moving to advanced stats backs up that Lopez has played well, and he's played 30 minutes a night. It's hard to show statistically that any rookie has played better than Lopez has this season.
1. Brook Lopez, New Jersey
2. Kevin Love, Minnesota
3. Derrick Rose, Chicago
All-Rookie Team
What of Mayo and Gordon? The Clippers guard ranks 17th at 2.0 WARP, the Grizzlies' star 24th with 0.8. The biggest problem is that neither player has contributed enough outside of their scoring. Both come out statistically as very poor defenders, an assessment which doesn't entirely match the conventional wisdom. I'm more willing to give Gordon the benefit of the doubt, since Memphis allowed 8.0 more points per 100 possessions with Mayo on the floor this season. (Gordon also fares better in Bradford Doolittle's defensive stats on our stats pages.) Beyond that, Gordon has more room to rest on his scoring since he's been much very efficient, posting a .591 True Shooting Percentage. He makes my All-Rookie Second Team; Mayo is on the outside looking in.
(Note: All-Rookie Team is not selected by position)
First Team
Marc Gasol, Memphis
Brook Lopez, New Jersey
Kevin Love, Minnesota
Derrick Rose, Chicago
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City
Second Team
Nicolas Batum, Portland
Mario Chalmers, Miami
Eric Gordon, L.A. Clippers
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Milwaukee
Greg Oden, Portland
Why Batum instead of his Blazers' teammate Rudy Fernandez, amongst others? Batum has the best net plus-minus amongst rookie regulars at +9.1. At the start of the season, he was Portland's perimeter stopper by default, but he has improved in that regard. By hitting 36.7 percent of his threes, he's forced defenses to at least respect him. That's a solid package for a rookie.
Sixth Man Award
Player Tm Win% WARP Net+/-
Chris Andersen DEN .678 7.9 -0.1
Nate Robinson NYK .567 6.9 +4.9
Jason Terry DAL .544 6.6 +3.5
Manu Ginobili SAS .679 6.5 -0.3
Andrei Kirilenko UTA .568 5.7 +11.0
(Note that I've only listed players who have started fewer than 40 percent of their games. The league's requirements make 50 percent the cutoff, but to me Ramon Sessions--who will finish the year with 39 starts in 79 games--doesn't really meet the spirit of the Sixth Man Award.)
The WARP system loves guys with high block totals, and nobody has blocked shots better than Andersen this season. He's rejecting 9.2 percent of opponent two-point attempts while on the court, way better than the second-best mark in the league (7.0 percent by Miami's Joel Anthony). Andersen also rebounds 17.5 percent of opponent misses and has a True Shooting Percentage north of 60 percent. The resurgence of "The Birdman" has been as important as anything--including the acquisition of Chauncey Billups--to the Nuggets' Northwest Division championship. Despite the love, he's not getting a spot on my ballot, because Andersen's WARP overstates his contributions.
The competition between Seattle guards Robinson and Terry is closer than conventional wisdom would have you believe. Robinson gets the slight statistical nod on offense because of his superior assist rate, but Terry is the better defender and his played more minutes. Ultimately, he's the pick--barely.
Kirilenko is another guy who fares well by WARP. In this case, his plus-minus is even stronger. That's reflected by how poorly the Jazz played when Kirilenko was out of the lineup earlier this season, going 6-10. There's an argument to be made that he actually deserves the Sixth Man Award, though he'll have to settle for a strong third.
1. Jason Terry, Dallas
2. Nate Robinson, New York
3. Andrei Kirilenko, Utah
Defensive Player of the Year
1. Dwight Howard, Orlando
2. LeBron James, Cleveland
3. Tim Duncan, San Antonio
I selected Howard in last week's column picking All-Defensive Teams. There's an enormous gap between him and the rest of the field.
Coach of the Year
1. Stan Van Gundy, Orlando
2. Mike Brown, Cleveland
3. Phil Jackson, L.A. Lakers
Van Gundy had this award wrapped up early in the season. Depending on the results the final day of the season, the Magic has a good shot at finishing with the league's top Defensive Rating. Howard is a big part of that, but so too is Van Gundy, who has found a way to take advantage of his team's strengths and mitigate their weaknesses. Van Gundy skillfully navigated the loss of Jameer Nelson and integrated Rafer Alston into the lineup after the trade deadline. This has been a masterful coaching job.
Brown is a very deserving number two. His Cleveland defenses have always been strong. This year, the Cavaliers have added elite offense to the mix, and the addition of Mo Williams can't explain the entire difference. With assistant John Kuester playing a big role, Cleveland has been more creative in making use of LeBron James. The third spot was largely a toss-up between Jackson, who has guided a talented Lakers squad through a consistent season, and Denver's George Karl.
Most Improved Player
Player Tm WARPI
Dwyane Wade MIA +10.8
Nenê DEN + 6.6
Kevin Durant OKC + 6.5
Rajon Rondo BOS + 5.6
Jeff Green OKC + 5.0
An attempt to bring some science to picking the Most Improved Player: The chart above shows the leaders in terms of WARP the player has produced above what they would have if they played the same minutes total at last season's level of performance. I'm not sure Wade really qualifies, since he's played at this level before and any drop-off was largely due to injuries.
Durant was my subjective pick, so to see him near the top of the rankings only confirms that perception. I hadn't really considered Nenê, but he seems like a good choice as well. Nenê has put together the best season of his career after being plagued by injuries. That's one of this season's best stories.
1. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City
2. Nenê, Denver
3. Rajon Rondo, Boston
Executive of the Year
Mark Warkentien, Denver
This was my midseason pick, and if anything it looks better now that the Nuggets have secured the division championship and could finish second in the Western Conference. Warkentien and company in Denver pulled it off while unloading starting center Marcus Camby for the purpose of getting under a luxury tax. Budget concerns forced Warkentien to shop on a budget this summer, and he came up with Andersen and Renaldo Balkman to augment the Nuggets' bench while finding a way to re-sign J.R. Smith. Adding Chauncey Billups from Detroit in exchange for the declining Allen Iverson was the piece de resistance in the NBA's most successful makeover.
All-NBA Teams
All-NBA First Team
G - Chris Paul, New Orleans
G - Dwyane Wade, Miami
G - Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers
F - LeBron James, Cleveland
C - Dwight Howard, Orlando
The NBA's rules permit voters to stretch positional requirements, and I think that is appropriate to do so to get Paul, Wade and Bryant all on the First Team.
All-NBA Second Team
G - Brandon Roy, Portland
G - Rajon Rondo, Boston
F - Pau Gasol, L.A. Lakers
F - Tim Duncan, San Antonio
C - Yao Ming, Houston
The backcourt may raise some eyebrows, but Roy has clearly been the NBA's third-best guard this season and Rondo has consistently ranked amongst WARP leaders while playing outstanding defense at the point. Duncan has played more center than power forward this season, starting most of the year alongside Matt Bonner. Putting him at forward to get Yao Ming on the Second Team is not a huge stretch, however.
All-NBA Third Team
G - Tony Parker, San Antonio
G - Deron Williams, Utah
F - Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas
F - Chris Bosh, Toronto
C - Shaquille O'Neal, Phoenix
Worth noting: While the East features the likely MVP and three members of my All-NBA First Team, the 15 total All-NBA players include 10 from the Western Conference. The most difficult pick here was Williams over Billups for the last guard spot.
Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.
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