|
The regular season is history. We now know exactly how well these 104 teams performed during conference play on a per-possession basis. True, the Big East schedule comes nowhere near an ideal home-and-away round robin, but then again, that's exactly what we find in the Pac-10, the Mountain West and the Missouri Valley. Every other conference here falls somewhere in between those two extremes. Also keep in mind, of course, that not all conferences are created equal. An efficiency margin in C-USA is not directly transferrable to the Big East.
Given all that, how well do these numbers predict performance in the NCAA tournament? Very well. Throw out Wisconsin the past couple years and you could even say very well. Enjoy.
ACC: I'm Worried about Duke, Coach K is Not
Through games of March 8, conference games only
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession
Opp. PPP: opponent points per possession
EM: efficiency margin (PPP - Opp. PPP)
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. North Carolina 74.7 1.16 1.01 +0.15
2. Duke 69.2 1.08 0.98 +0.10
3. Clemson 70.5 1.09 1.01 +0.08
4. Wake Forest 74.3 1.07 1.01 +0.06
5. Florida St. 69.1 1.00 0.98 +0.02
6. Miami 65.8 1.06 1.07 -0.01
7. BC 66.9 1.08 1.11 -0.03
8. Virginia Tech 68.6 1.04 1.08 -0.04
9. NC State 67.3 1.05 1.11 -0.06
10. Maryland 69.3 0.99 1.06 -0.07
11. Virginia 69.1 0.96 1.06 -0.10
12. Georgia Tech 72.8 0.92 1.02 -0.10
ESPN's Andy Katz has a post up this week reporting that, despite their loss at Chapel Hill Sunday, Duke is feeling good about their sassy new look. "The Jon-Scheyer-Elliott Williams experiment is working so well that Duke is quite pleased with its progress going into the postseason," Katz reports. Well, mark me down as not pleased with the Blue Devils' progress--because in fact there's been no progress on defense. There's been regression.
The Williams experiment began on February 19, when the highly-touted freshman got the start at Madison Square Garden in Duke's 76-69 win over St. John's. Williams subsequently averaged 33 minutes per outing over the Blue Devils' last five ACC games, during which time Duke allowed their opponents to score 1.09 points per trip. That's not wholly or even particularly Williams' doing, of course, and it's true that over that same period the Blue Devils scored enough points (1.16) to win games. Nevertheless, for Duke's players and coaches to proclaim Carolina-level satisfaction with a team playing Miami-level D strikes me as somewhat premature.
Big East: Making it Easy for the Selection Committee
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. Pitt 66.9 1.17 1.01 +0.16
2. Connecticut 66.6 1.10 0.95 +0.15
3. Louisville 68.0 1.06 0.92 +0.14
4. Villanova 71.8 1.10 1.01 +0.09
5. West Virginia 65.9 1.06 0.98 +0.08
6. Syracuse 71.1 1.10 1.02 +0.08
7. Marquette 69.0 1.12 1.04 +0.08
8. Notre Dame 68.7 1.08 1.09 -0.01
9. Georgetown 63.9 1.01 1.03 -0.02
10. Providence 72.9 1.07 1.10 -0.03
11. Seton Hall 69.2 1.03 1.08 -0.05
12. Cincinnati 63.7 1.02 1.10 -0.08
13. St. John's 66.2 0.95 1.07 -0.12
14. S. Florida 61.9 0.93 1.05 -0.12
15. Rutgers 66.7 0.92 1.06 -0.14
16. DePaul 65.5 0.92 1.17 -0.25
If I were on the selection committee, I would look at this and see a big beautiful gaping chasm between the conference's seventh-best team, Marquette, and its eighth-best, Notre Dame. This is a seven-bid league. The other nine teams are down three flights of stairs.
Big Ten: It May Not Look That Way When You Watch Them, But....
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. Michigan St. 63.6 1.06 0.93 +0.13
2. Wisconsin 57.8 1.08 1.00 +0.08
3. Purdue 63.6 1.02 0.95 +0.07
4. Illinois 61.1 0.98 0.93 +0.05
5. Ohio St. 60.8 1.07 1.05 +0.02
6. Minnesota 62.2 0.98 0.98 0.00
7. Michigan 61.0 1.01 1.03 -0.02
8. Penn St. 59.7 1.00 1.04 -0.04
9. Northwestern 59.6 1.03 1.07 -0.04
10. Iowa 56.8 0.99 1.07 -0.08
11. Indiana 63.2 0.93 1.12 -0.19
Averaging just 63 points a game in conference play, Wisconsin actually had the best offense in the Big Ten this year. Yay, tempo-free stats.
Big 12: What to Do With the Sooners?
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. Kansas 69.5 1.09 0.94 +0.15
2. Missouri 72.9 1.08 0.96 +0.12
3. Oklahoma 68.8 1.13 1.02 +0.11
4. Texas 67.5 1.07 1.03 +0.04
5. Texas A&M 66.2 1.08 1.05 +0.03
6. Oklahoma St. 71.5 1.09 1.07 +0.02
7. Nebraska 63.1 0.97 0.98 -0.01
8. Kansas St. 67.7 1.02 1.05 -0.03
9. Baylor 68.4 1.05 1.10 -0.05
10. Texas Tech 71.7 1.02 1.11 -0.09
11. Iowa St. 65.6 0.95 1.07 -0.12
12. Colorado 63.2 0.92 1.10 -0.18
One of the most interesting questions to be answered this week is whether or not Oklahoma can earn "back" a one-seed if it wins the Big 12 tournament. The Sooners were projected to be a one for weeks, only to be bumped down to a two in most mock brackets when they lost at Missouri last week. If Jeff Capel's team does cut down the nets at the Ford Center in Oklahoma City on Saturday, and if that's enough to win them a one-seed, you'd have to like the chances of an "underdog" two-seed like Louisville or Memphis against a one-seed that was a step behind Kansas in the Big 12.
Pac-10: Can UCLA Win When They're Not Supposed To?
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. UCLA 64.5 1.17 1.04 +0.13
2. Washington 70.6 1.10 1.00 +0.10
3. Arizona St. 59.0 1.09 1.01 +0.08
4. Cal 65.7 1.09 1.07 +0.02
5. USC 62.0 1.04 1.03 +0.01
6. Arizona 64.6 1.10 1.09 +0.01
7. Washington St. 57.4 1.01 1.02 -0.01
8. Stanford 65.3 1.06 1.11 -0.05
9. Oregon St. 58.2 0.96 1.09 -0.13
10. Oregon 65.7 0.97 1.17 -0.20
The Bruins, along with Pitt and North Carolina, clearly have one of the best offenses in the country. Ben Howland's team figures to be either a four- or possibly a five-seed, one that could give a one-seed's D a run for its money in the Sweet 16.
SEC: Performance Bears Imperfectly on Happiness
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. LSU 69.5 1.08 0.97 +0.11
2. Florida 69.9 1.10 1.03 +0.07
3. Auburn 69.9 1.04 0.98 +0.06
4. Tennessee 68.9 1.09 1.04 +0.05
5. Kentucky 69.1 1.02 0.98 +0.04
6. South Carolina 74.8 1.02 0.99 +0.03
7. Mississippi St. 69.8 1.03 1.03 0.00
8. Alabama 70.5 1.03 1.05 -0.02
9. Vanderbilt 68.4 1.02 1.04 -0.02
10. Ole Miss 68.4 1.05 1.07 -0.02
11. Arkansas 70.5 0.98 1.09 -0.11
12. Georgia 70.3 0.88 1.06 -0.18
People in Lexington, Kentucky, are miserable. People in Columbia, South Carolina, are elated. Absent an SEC tournament championship, the team in the first locale isn't going to the NCAA tournament. The team in the second location might. Yet the two teams were virtually identical, possession for possession, in SEC play. Go figure.
Mountain West: The NCAA's Preferred Source of Non-"Major" At-Large Bids (cont.)
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. New Mexico 64.6 1.11 0.97 +0.14
2. BYU 68.3 1.08 0.94 +0.14
3. Utah 64.6 1.10 0.99 +0.11
4. San Diego St. 63.4 1.05 0.98 +0.07
5. UNLV 65.3 1.02 0.98 +0.04
6. Wyoming 67.5 1.03 1.10 -0.07
7. TCU 63.9 0.98 1.07 -0.09
8. Colorado St. 65.9 1.00 1.15 -0.15
9. Air Force 58.1 0.88 1.11 -0.23
Congratulations to New Mexico, tempo-free champions of the MWC in a photo-finish over BYU. For your brackets, remember: everyone plays everyone in the Mountain West. The Lobos and the Cougars have shown they're one level up from Utah, even if the Utes did beat LSU by 30.
C-USA: Total Domination of Epic Proportions (Yawn)
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. Memphis 65.3 1.13 0.86 +0.27
2. UAB 66.8 1.06 0.96 +0.10
3. Tulsa 64.5 1.06 0.97 +0.09
4. Houston 69.4 1.09 1.01 +0.08
5. UTEP 71.2 1.02 0.98 +0.04
6. UCF 66.0 1.07 1.06 +0.01
7. Tulane 66.3 0.98 1.02 -0.04
8. Marshall 65.0 1.02 1.08 -0.06
9. E. Carolina 65.0 1.07 1.18 -0.11
10. Rice 64.7 0.96 1.07 -0.11
11. Southern Miss 63.7 1.01 1.15 -0.14
12. SMU 64.5 0.95 1.09 -0.14
This is a case where Memphis' conference does indeed hurt the Tigers. If John Calipari's team were in the Big East or perhaps even the SEC, they would have had opportunities to prove that they've replaced Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts and haven't missed a beat. In Conference USA, however, even an undefeated record isn't enough, it would appear, to convince the hoops world that you're as good as you were last year. Well, they are as good (outscoring C-USA by 0.27 points per trip) as they were last year (0.29).
Missouri Valley: Once More with Feeling
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. N. Iowa 61.2 1.09 0.97 +0.12
2 Creighton 66.3 1.10 1.00 +0.10
3. Illinois St. 62.6 1.05 0.96 +0.09
4. Bradley 61.8 1.03 1.01 +0.02
5. S. Illinois 62.9 1.00 1.03 -0.03
6. Evansville 64.5 0.97 1.01 -0.04
7. Drake 62.5 0.97 1.01 -0.04
8. Wichita St. 62.3 0.99 1.04 -0.05
9. Indiana St. 63.0 0.99 1.04 -0.05
10. Missouri St. 62.4 0.96 1.06 -0.10
The Valley of course ended their regular season a week ago and I already posted these numbers once, but what the hey, here they are again for ease of linking. Creighton will be sweating out Selection Sunday after having been blown off the floor in their Arch Madness semifinal against Illinois State. Congratulations to Northern Iowa, winners of the conference tournament and recipients of the automatic bid. Drake set new standards for Valley surprises last year, but keep in mind that no one was picking the Panthers last November. Ben Jacobson, take a bow.
John Gasaway is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact John by clicking here or click here to see John's other articles.
| 
0 comments have been left for this article. 
Bubbles of their Own Making: Villanova, Temp...