November 4, 2008
Big Deal
Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups

by Kevin Pelton

Suddenly, in-season trades are all the rage in the NBA. In the wake of deals that saw Pau Gasol, Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion and Shaquille O'Neal change teams last year, it took less than a week into the 2008-09 season for a blockbuster deal to be consummated. On Monday, the Denver Nuggets sent Allen Iverson to the Detroit Pistons in exchange for Chauncey Billups, Antonio McDyess and Cheikh Samb.

In a sense, this is something we rarely see in the NBA above and beyond big names being traded--a challenge trade. Iverson isn't exactly a point guard, but he played many of his minutes there in Denver and will presumably have to play the point even more in Detroit. Their numbers, as projected for the upcoming season by the SCHOENE Projection System, make the challenge trade aspect even more striking in that there actually is a fair amount of similarity between the two players.

Player     2P%   3P%   FT%   OR%   DR%  Ast%  Stl%  Blk%
Iverson   .470  .348  .780  .015  .069  .073  .021  .002
Billups   .477  .418  .922  .018  .079  .093  .017  .004

Player   Usage   2A%   3A%  FTA %  TO%   PF%
Iverson   .247  .579  .137  .158  .126  .015
Billups   .218  .433  .286  .152  .129  .026

The differences between the two players really come down to three areas:

• Billups is the superior three-point shooter and attempts threes more frequently (and thus fewer twos).
• Billups hands out assists more frequently.
• Iverson uses more possessions.

The other major contrast, one not reflected in these statistics, is Billups' superior size, which shows up on the defensive end. Add it up and Billups rates as the more valuable player, a difference of about two and a half Wins Above Replacement both in 2007-08 and the 2008-09 projections. So what do these differences say about the directions of both teams this season and beyond?

Let's start with the Pistons, for whom this represents a major organizational change in the wake of a third consecutive loss in the Eastern Conference Finals. After replacing Flip Saunders on the sidelines with Michael Curry, Detroit's Joe Dumars largely stood pat with the roster over the offseason; Kwame Brown was the team's biggest addition. It looked as if the Pistons would see if the coaching change and the development of youngsters Amir Johnson and Rodney Stuckey would be enough to get them over the hump...until Monday

Now, Detroit will see whether the dimension Iverson adds to the team's offense will also make a difference. He is the best shot creator the Pistons have had since trading Jerry Stackhouse six years ago. Detroit relied on a balanced offense, with a great deal of success, during the Flip Saunders era. The biggest driver of that offense was Billups, one of the league's most efficient offensive players because of his ability to score in the most productive ways possible (via threes and the free-throw line) and his outstanding assist-to-turnover ratio.

Defensively, the Pistons will miss Billups' ability to crossmatch with Richard Hamilton and defend some shooting guards. Iverson is also more vulnerable to post ups from players like Rajon Rondo than Billups is, whose size almost never left him at a disadvantage.

It's possible that a Detroit team with Iverson could be more successful in the postseason. Billups has not been especially productive in the Pistons' Eastern Conference Finals losses, and Iverson's ability to create takes on additional importance in the half-court style of the playoffs. However, on balance the indication is that Detroit will miss Billups on offense, a difference large enough that SCHOENE suggests the Pistons now belong in the second tier of contenders in the East, a notch below the Celtics and Philadelphia and in with Cleveland, Miami and Orlando.

The upside for Detroit and the reason consensus has largely been positive on this deal for the Pistons is that, if things don't work out, Iverson's $20-plus million expiring contract offers the opportunity to retool immediately. Added to Rasheed Wallace's own expiring deal, Detroit stands to have around $20 million in cap room, more than enough to sign a free agent to the maximum contract. With Hamilton reportedly agreeing to a three-year contract extension, the Pistons could have a competent starting five under contract--Stuckey, Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Johnson and Jason Maxiell--before going shopping for a player like Carlos Boozer, Shawn Marion or Lamar Odom.

There's a lot to be said for the flexibility Dumars has given himself going forward. Still, if that's the case, Billups and Wallace are a lot of talent to sacrifice for a newcomer. That swap makes sense if Detroit's window had closed with the current group, a conclusion Dumars might have made having seen his team in camp and during the preseason. I completely understand the logic; I just don't entirely agree. I would have loved to see this group get a chance to go further under Curry than the Pistons could get under Saunders. They never got that opportunity.

On the Denver side, this move can be looked at two different ways--in isolation and as part of the bigger picture of where the Nuggets are going. From the former perspective, this deal makes a lot of sense. Not only is Billups the better player overall, he's also a better fit for Denver's talent. The Nuggets have J.R. Smith ready to step in and play more minutes at shooting guard, while the Lilliputian backcourt of Iverson and Anthony Carter hurt the team defensively and Billups offers more size even when he's paired with Carter or Chucky Atkins. With Carmelo Anthony and Smith, Denver won't miss Iverson's ability to create shots all that much while benefiting from Billups's ability to set teammates up.

I've gone this far without even mentioning McDyess because the Pistons are deep enough in the frontcourt that he won't be a tremendous loss (though a veteran big man might be a nice addition to complement the youngsters, Wallace and Brown). From the Nuggets' perspective, he's a big addition. The initial speculation had McDyess asking to be bought out, with Denver potentially amenable because of the luxury-tax implications, but the Rocky Mountain News cited Rex Chapman from the Nuggets' front office as saying the team would keep McDyess.

McDyess represents an enormous upgrade on Juwan Howard (waived to make room for the newcomers) in the Denver frontcourt. Should Steven Hunter be unable to contribute this season--a likely possibility, given his troublesome knees--Howard was the Nuggets' fourth big man before the addition of McDyess, who also is more capable of stepping in at center should Denver lose Nenê for any period of time.

The lone question I have specifically about this deal relates to Billups's ability to play at the high pace favored by the Nuggets. He's spent years playing at a very slow pace in Detroit, and last year the Pistons played a possession slower per 48 minutes when Billups was on the floor. Surely he can survive, but a half-court game caters more to Billups's strengths.

Because of the good fit and because of the importance of adding McDyess, this deal figures to help Denver much more than it (potentially) hurts the Pistons. A swing of four or five games in the standings doesn't seem unreasonable. (SCHOENE suggests an eight-game benefit, though this is larger because of a fluke in the system relating to the lack of a projection for Chris Andersen.) The question then becomes how good the Nuggets were in the first place, and that's where I'm more dubious. Even with the swing, SCHOENE projects Denver as a 40-win team.

An optimistic assessment of the Nuggets would have a hard time placing them in the group of the legitimate contenders in the Western Conference, leaving them in the group fighting for playoff spots without home-court advantage--exactly where Denver has been for the last four years or so. In dealing for the 32-year-old Billups and the 34-year-old McDyess, the Nuggets have hardly gotten younger and have lost the flexibility they maintained with Iverson's expiring contract. That's not enough to make this a bad move per se, just a flawed one that in concert with the salary dump involving Marcus Camby this summer leaves Denver looking confused about its future.

Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.