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February 5, 2013
Tuesday Truths
Truth-in-Advertising Edition

by John Gasaway

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Welcome to Tuesday Truths, where I look at how well 131 teams in the nation's top 11 conferences are doing against their league opponents on a per-possession basis. For a tidy little homily on why this stuff is so very awesome, go here.

ACC: NC State was advertised as better than this

Through games of February 4, conference games only
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession Opp. PPP: opponent PPP
EM: efficiency margin (PPP - Opp. PPP)

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Miami             8-0   66.1    1.05    0.88    +0.17
2.  Duke              6-2   68.7    1.09    0.96    +0.13
3.  Virginia          5-3   59.9    0.98    0.90    +0.08
4.  North Carolina    5-3   68.7    1.01    0.96    +0.05
5.  NC State          5-4   69.1    1.08    1.03    +0.05
6.  Maryland          4-5   67.6    0.97    0.95    +0.02
7.  Clemson           4-5   62.5    0.98    0.99    -0.01
8.  Boston College    2-6   65.3    1.04    1.09    -0.05
9.  Georgia Tech      2-6   68.8    0.92    0.99    -0.07
10. Florida St.       4-4   63.2    0.96    1.07    -0.11
11. Wake Forest       3-6   68.2    0.94    1.07    -0.13
12. Virginia Tech     2-4   65.1    0.99    1.13    -0.14

AVG.                        66.1    1.00

In the preseason everyone was all like "NC State! NC State!" and I was all like "Hey, wait a minute, remember Duke," and in the way that these things always, but always, work out, there's a chance that all of the above were wrong.

Hello, Miami. Even with a game at Duke still to be played, you will have to work pretty hard to fall down badly and repeatedly not to win the ACC this season. You're doing it with defense, of course, and all that any D can do is proudly wear the rigorously fact-checked and Tuesday Truths-approved claim: "BETTER THAN VIRGINIA." Congrats, and keep up the good work.

As for the Wolfpack, I think I see the problem. Appropriately enough in light of the previous paragraph, the problem is defense. NC State's offense has actually been every bit as good as advertised, but these guys aren't stopping anybody. (Well, fine, the 51-50 loss at Maryland was a 65-possession defensive slugfest. I'll give you that one.) And the downright frightening thing is that this so-so performance on D has coincided with a run of remarkable good luck, as ACC opponents have missed a whopping 73.5 percent of their threes. Once that particular water finds its own level, look out.

Big 12: Teasing out the distinctions in a five-team lump

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Kansas            7-1   65.6    1.03    0.92    +0.11
2.  Baylor            5-3   67.6    1.00    0.89    +0.11
3.  Kansas St.        6-2   62.7    1.06    0.96    +0.10
4.  Oklahoma St.      5-3   69.0    1.04    0.95    +0.09
5.  Iowa St.          6-3   66.9    1.09    1.00    +0.09
6.  West Virginia     4-5   63.4    0.99    0.98    +0.01
7.  Oklahoma          5-4   66.2    1.01    1.00    +0.01
8.  Texas             2-7   64.7    0.95    1.01    -0.06
9.  Texas Tech        2-6   64.0    0.86    1.09    -0.23
10. TCU               0-8   61.4    0.80    1.06    -0.26

AVG.                        65.1    0.98

If the Big 12 really does turn out to host a race where Kansas, Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State are all more or less equally matched, I for one think it would be sublime. Perfect round-robin scheduling plus a critical mass of multiple second-weekend-worthy teams spells grab a bucket of popcorn in my book.

I'm just not quite sure yet that this is really the case. With all due respect to all five teams, some of you have played TCU more times than others. The Jayhawks, for instance, get their first bite at that luscious stat-inflating apple tomorrow night in Fort Worth.

Meantime allow me to present this "Just Like John Groce, Only with Accurate Shooters" commemorative shot glass to ISU head coach Fred Hoiberg. The Cyclones are shooting threes like crazy, and those attempts are falling with a frequency that rivals that of even Korie Lucious' turnovers. (Har! Little in-reference there for the peeps in East Lansing.) The result has been the best offense in the Big 12. Well done, Mayor.

Big East: Kevin Ollie, I salute you!

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Louisville        6-3   64.8    1.04    0.90    +0.14
2.  Pitt              7-4   62.7    1.05    0.93    +0.12
3.  Syracuse          7-2   61.0    1.06    0.96    +0.10
4.  Georgetown        6-3   61.3    1.00    0.92    +0.08
5.  Cincinnati        6-3   62.1    1.02    0.97    +0.05
6.  Marquette         6-2   61.5    1.04    1.00    +0.04
7.  Connecticut       5-3   65.3    1.05    1.02    +0.03
8.  Notre Dame        6-4   59.8    1.09    1.08    +0.01
9.  Villanova         4-5   67.0    0.95    0.96    -0.01
10. St. John's        6-4   68.3    0.95    0.96    -0.01
11. Providence        3-7   67.3    0.98    1.05    -0.07
12. Rutgers           3-6   64.4    0.93    1.03    -0.10
13. DePaul            1-7   72.9    0.93    1.05    -0.12
14. Seton Hall        2-8   63.4    0.94    1.07    -0.13
15. S. Florida        1-8   58.9    0.91    1.06    -0.15

AVG.                        64.1    1.00

This is the highest-performing regular-season Connecticut team we've seen since A.J. Price and Jeff Adrien were still around, and given that the Huskies are doing this knowing they won't play in the NCAA tournament, that's rather remarkable. For the first time in recent memory the coach on the sidelines in Storrs is fine with an occasional three, and that appears to have given startled opposing coaches in the Big East something new to chew on. Only Notre Dame and Georgetown have shot better from the field in conference play.

If you're looking for a testament to the value of hard work and relentless practice, I might steer you in the direction of Shabazz Napier. He's logging just as many minutes (a lot) and using just as many possessions (many) as ever, but his shooting percentages everywhere -- beyond the arc, inside it, and at the line -- have jumped up by five percentage points or more. It's been a very nice breakout junior season under circumstances that wouldn't ordinarily be seen as conducive to breaking out.

Someday Mick Cronin's child will write a song: "Papa Was a Metronome." Presenting your Cincinnati in-conference efficiency margins the past three seasons:

2013  +0.05
2012  +0.05 
2011  +0.05

If Cronin's really as consistent as he's trying to make us believe, he'll make darn sure his team grabs off a No. 6 seed and loses either in the round of 32 or the Sweet 16.

Big Ten: Watch a lot of IU and UM this season

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Michigan          7-2   62.6    1.19    0.98    +0.21
2.  Indiana           8-1   66.8    1.13    0.95    +0.18
3.  Ohio St.          7-2   63.1    1.00    0.90    +0.10
4.  Minnesota         5-4   62.1    1.11    1.03    +0.08
5.  Wisconsin         6-3   58.8    0.99    0.93    +0.06
6.  Michigan St.      7-2   65.3    1.04    0.98    +0.06
7.  Iowa              3-6   66.4    0.98    1.00    -0.02
8.  Illinois          2-7   65.7    0.98    1.06    -0.08
9.  Northwestern      4-6   59.9    0.98    1.08    -0.10
10. Purdue            4-5   63.4    0.96    1.07    -0.11
11. Nebraska          2-8   61.6    0.89    1.04    -0.15
12. Penn St.          0-9   64.6    0.86    1.08    -0.22

AVG.                        63.4    1.01

Indiana and Michigan are both on trajectories that will make them NCAA tournament No. 1 seeds, a feat the Big Ten hasn't accomplished since 2001. Meaning the Wolverines and Hoosiers may well turn out to be two of the best teams the Big Ten has seen in the last four or five years. Nothing I saw Saturday night led me to believe otherwise.

Sure enough, what's shown in the numbers up there is the kind of separation you'd expect from two such teams. Michigan in particular hasn't yet achieved that same distance in the actual, you know, standings, but past experience suggests they will given enough opportunities to play the sport. The short hand in Ann Arbor goes something like this: An offense better than any other conference team's (duh), and a D that may yet turn out to be pretty good. Right now that defense is tied for fourth in conference play, and that's with a road game in Bloomington already in the books.

Circle the date: Indiana visits Crisler on March 10. Between now and then both of these leviathans have to go to East Lansing, IU must journey up to see the Gophers in the Twin Cities, and Michigan has a road date upcoming at Wisconsin. Long winning streaks are hard to come by in the 2013-variety Big Ten, but the best guess right now is that these are two aberrantly mighty teams going at it. Enjoy the show.

Pac-12: Is Stanford actually good? If they were how would we know?

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Arizona           7-2   68.6    1.04    0.94    +0.10
2.  Stanford          5-4   67.9    1.04    0.96    +0.08
3.  Arizona St.       6-3   66.1    1.05    1.01    +0.04
4.  UCLA              6-3   70.7    0.99    0.96    +0.03
5.  Oregon            7-2   70.3    0.99    0.96    +0.03
6.  Washington        5-4   67.4    1.01    0.99    +0.02
7.  Colorado          4-5   67.7    0.99    0.97    +0.02
8.  Cal               5-4   65.0    0.98    1.00    -0.02
9.  USC               4-5   68.6    1.00    1.03    -0.03
10. Oregon St.        1-8   68.0    1.00    1.08    -0.08
11. Washington St.    2-7   64.4    0.97    1.06    -0.09
12. Utah              2-7   62.2    0.94    1.04    -0.10

AVG.                        67.2    1.00

I don't wish to book a flight to Atlanta for a group that's 14-8 overall, and 5-4 in the Pac-12, but I will confess that I've been keeping an eye on the team in Palo Alto. Show me the error of my ways....

Aside from the usual bout with altitude sickness experienced by many coastal types when they're parachuted abruptly into Boulder, Colorado, none of the Cardinal's losses have come by double-digits. They ate Oregon alive back before it became the thing to do. They're something of a Lil' Arizona, in that in conference play they've been excellent on both sides of the ball.

If there's smoke and mirrors at work here, however, it's pretty clearly present on offense. Johnny Dawkins' team has been terrible inside the arc in-conference (40 percent), but it's funny how 45 percent shooting outside that same arc can solve a world of schematic issues. As long as those threes continue to fall, Stanford's ability will continue to exceed their notoriety.

BONUS salute to weirdness! Yes, you're reading those numbers correctly. Stanford as a team is actually more accurate on their threes than on their twos in conference play, and by a fairly healthy margin. This is known to grim hoops technicians in white lab coats as "pulling a team-wide Greg Paulus," in honor of the Ohio State assistant coach and erstwhile Dookie who used to display the same eccentricity back in the day.

SEC: Finally, some Florida fretting I can use at the water cooler!

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Florida           8-0   62.5    1.20    0.78    +0.42
2.  Kentucky          6-2   66.7    1.05    0.98    +0.07
3.  Ole Miss          6-2   68.8    1.04    0.98    +0.06
4.  Alabama           6-2   60.6    1.01    0.95    +0.06
5.  Missouri          5-3   67.8    1.06    1.02    +0.04
6.  Arkansas          4-4   68.2    0.96    0.93    +0.03
7.  Texas A&M         3-5   60.3    0.96    0.96     0.00
8.  Tennessee         3-5   64.6    0.97    1.04    -0.07
9.  South Carolina    2-6   65.1    0.93    1.00    -0.07
10. LSU               3-5   68.3    0.93    1.01    -0.08
11. Vanderbilt        2-6   62.9    0.92    1.01    -0.09
12. Georgia           4-4   62.0    0.93    1.02    -0.09
13. Auburn            2-6   65.9    0.96    1.07    -0.11
14. Mississippi St.   2-6   67.2    0.85    1.03    -0.18

AVG.                        65.1    0.98

Kentucky last season was the most dominant team of the brief Tuesday Truths era. Florida is currently blowing that record away. Both sentences are true enough, but the second one just doesn't feel right -- to anyone, really. So people are casting about for reasons to explain away the second sentence.

Speaking for myself, it doesn't really bother me that the Gators are doing what they're doing in a weak conference. Anyone who saw Memphis in 2008 knows a great team can come from a terrible league. (Hey, the SEC last year was no murderers row, and the statistical difference year to year is smaller than you think.) Nor does it unsettle me too much to learn that sobering precedents can be found in the history books. (Though no one can spin a tale like this as masterfully as my bud Ken.) No, if my instinctual fretting's going to ripen into actual analytic purchase on my bracket in March, I need something: a) specific to this team, and b) performance-based.

I watched Florida beat Ole Miss the other night, and I think maybe I've found just the thing:

MISSED 3 PTR by Wilbekin, Scottie               10:35
REBOUND (OFF) by Rosario, Mike                  10:35
TURNOVR by Boynton, Kenny                       10:23

(skip to next offensive possession)

MISSED 3 PTR by Rosario, Mike                   09:53

(skip to next offensive possession)

MISSED 3 PTR by Boynton, Kenny                  09:21

(skip to next offensive possession)

GOOD! 3 PTR by Rosario, Mike                    08:44
ASSIST by Wilbekin, Scottie                     08:44

Ye gods, these kids shoot a lot of threes (42 percent of attempts in SEC play). I'm not going down the "perimeter-oriented teams are doomed in the tournament" road, mind you. If ever there were a POT built to survive and advance in the field of 68, goodness knows it's one that might turn out to be the defensive team of the decade and that also, oh by the way, leads the SEC in two-point accuracy in-conference by five full percentage points.

But the sequence against the Rebels did bother me in real time, and it bothers me now. On offense Florida achieves exemplary balance among very talented scorers, but collectively those scorers are far from summing to a multi-pronged weapon. This is a good but by no means great offensive rebounding team, and they never go to the line. (They don't foul either. If you haven't already, watch a Gator game. It's a blissful ref-free oasis in our occasionally whistle-blighted sport.) They just make shots from the field, and an unusually high proportion of those shots are threes.

If you really feel you must work up some worthy and durable concern with regard to this team -- and doing so is not easy -- that's where I recommend you start. All teams, up to and including Creighton itself, have games where they're off from the perimeter, and such games could hit the Florida offense quite forcefully.

A-10: Is this clarity at last?

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Saint Louis       5-2   67.6    1.04    0.91    +0.13
2.  VCU               6-2   67.4    1.10    1.01    +0.09
3.  Butler            5-2   64.1    1.07    1.01    +0.06
4.  GW                4-3   65.0    1.07    1.01    +0.06
5.  Xavier            5-3   61.3    1.03    1.00    +0.03
6.  La Salle          5-3   66.6    1.00    0.97    +0.03
7.  UMass             4-3   68.3    1.02    1.00    +0.02
8.  Dayton            2-5   66.1    1.05    1.04    +0.01
9.  Saint Joseph's    4-3   63.3    1.08    1.07    +0.01
10. Temple            3-4   64.4    1.02    1.02     0.00
11. Richmond          4-4   63.5    1.04    1.05    -0.01
12. Charlotte         5-2   68.6    0.94    0.97    -0.03
13. St. Bonaventure   3-4   62.6    1.07    1.11    -0.04
14. Rhode Island      1-6   63.3    1.00    1.06    -0.06
15. Fordham           2-5   70.3    0.95    1.08    -0.13
16. Duquesne          0-7   67.1    0.96    1.14    -0.18

AVG.                        65.6    1.03

Last week I said "chaos" reigns supreme in the A-10. This week things look a good deal more sedate. Funny how that happens when a good team plays two consecutive home games. Saint Louis beat first Butler and then Dayton about the head and shoulders with a blunt instrument, winning the two games by an average of 23 points. At the moment Jim Crews has his team playing defense in a manner that their former coach would love, and if the Billikens show they can take this particular act on the road (starting with dates at Fordham tomorrow and at Richmond Saturday), it will be time to tell the league's two flashy newcomers officially that they do have competition after all.

Speaking of the flashy newcomers, Butler played 134 outstanding possessions against Indiana and Gonzaga earlier this season, and pollsters are clinging rather tenaciously to the memory of those trips up and down the floor as they continue to vote the Bulldogs into the top 15 nationally in the month of February. However Brad Stevens' team has also played 449 rather more mediocre possessions against A-10 competition, and indeed in league play Butler's been the functional equivalent of George Washington. (Not that there's anything wrong with that. Mike Lonergan, I salute you!) BU always seems to have either a great offense or an amazing defense (this season it's offense), but Stevens has had a tough time getting those two qualities to coincide ever since the Gordon Hayward days. On paper the Bulldogs are perhaps the nation's most overrated team.

C-USA: Is clarity coming at last?

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Southern Miss     7-0   65.6    1.17    0.90    +0.27
2.  Memphis           7-0   68.0    1.10    0.89    +0.21
3.  UCF               5-2   66.2    1.06    0.98    +0.08
4.  UTEP              5-2   61.2    1.03    0.95    +0.08
5.  East Carolina     4-4   70.7    1.03    1.04    -0.01
6.  SMU               2-6   63.6    0.99    1.03    -0.04
7.  Tulsa             4-4   65.9    0.95    0.99    -0.04
8.  Houston           3-5   66.5    1.05    1.12    -0.07
9.  Marshall          3-4   70.2    0.95    1.03    -0.08
10. Tulane            2-5   62.4    0.96    1.04    -0.08
11. UAB               1-6   68.1    0.95    1.06    -0.11
12. Rice              1-6   62.8    0.98    1.17    -0.19

AVG.                        65.9    1.02

We can't be entirely certain whether C-USA has any good teams, but if it does they've been avoiding each other. Feast your eyes on Nos. 1, 2, and 3 here. There haven't been any games between any of them yet, but that changes this week. Southern Miss hits the road to visit UCF tomorrow night, before the big showdown in Hattiesburg this Saturday against Memphis.

The Golden Eagles obviously look fantastic here, but before you jump with both feet on to Donnie Tyndall's bandwagon, take a long worried look at the close shave recorded by this team at lowly UAB on Saturday. Southern Miss led by as many as 11 in the second half but showed some serious flop sweat as the previously hapless Blazers cut that margin all the way down to two. That level of performance won't get it done tomorrow night in the Magic Kingdom.

BONUS Blazers note! Can it really have been just four years since a swaggering NBA-track behemoth like DeMarcus Cousins was all ready to go to UAB if only the administration would promise to keep the coach around? In retrospect that seems like a deal that could have been worked out.

Missouri Valley: Your weekly Creighton Incredible Shooting update

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Creighton         9-2   64.4    1.23    1.01    +0.22
2.  Wichita St.       8-3   63.0    1.07    0.95    +0.12
3.  N. Iowa           5-6   62.1    1.00    0.94    +0.06
4.  Indiana St.       7-4   64.8    1.03    0.99    +0.04
5.  Illinois St.      4-7   68.1    1.01    1.00    +0.01
6.  Evansville        6-5   63.8    1.01    1.02    -0.01
7.  Missouri St.      5-6   60.7    1.06    1.09    -0.03
8.  Drake             5-6   68.0    0.99    1.08    -0.09
9.  Bradley           5-6   63.8    0.96    1.08    -0.12
10. S. Illinois      1-10   63.2    0.95    1.14    -0.19

AVG.                        64.2    1.03

The gap in performance between Creighton and Wichita State has been larger than the standings indicate, and that of course is with the Bluejays' loss in Wichita already on the books. We should therefore make room for the possibility that Greg McDermott's team is just better than the rest, a possibility not yet being reflected by the wisdom of the bracket-projecting crowd, which is still serenely tossing the Bluejays and Shockers together into more or less the same cognitive bin. That being said, being better than the rest over the long haul does not preclude something as mundane as a loss in Terre Haute tomorrow night against a defensively solid group of Sycamores. Bring your A game, CU. And if coaches reading this are wondering how they can get their team to score 1.23 points per trip, it's easy. At your next practice stand up and give the following speech:

"Men, start shooting 57 percent on your twos, and 48 percent on your threes."

This and other equally valuable chestnuts of hoops wisdom are available on my instructional DVD, "Blinding Flashes of the Obvious, the John Gasaway Way." Order today.

In other Valley news, despite a W-L total that would seem to suggest otherwise, you do not want to see Illinois State right now. Dan Muller's Redbirds have outscored their last five opponents by a robust 0.15 points per trip.

Mountain West: UNLV and San Diego State were advertised as better than this

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Colorado St.      5-2   64.9    1.07    0.89    +0.18
2.  New Mexico        6-1   65.6    0.97    0.89    +0.08
3.  San Diego St.     4-3   65.2    1.00    0.94    +0.06
4.  UNLV              4-3   67.6    1.01    0.97    +0.04
5.  Air Force         5-2   64.8    1.03    1.03     0.00
6.  Wyoming           2-6   58.8    0.89    0.96    -0.07
7.  Boise St.         3-4   66.5    1.02    1.10    -0.08
8.  Nevada            2-5   65.6    0.93    1.04    -0.11
9.  Fresno St.        1-6   62.1    0.91    1.04    -0.13

AVG.                        64.6    0.98

In the preseason everyone was all like "UNLV and San Diego State! UNLV and San Diego State" and I was all like "Hey, wait a minute, remember New Mexico," and in the way that these things always, but always, work out, there's a chance that all of the above were wrong.

Hello, Colorado State. You are displaying Creighton-like supremacy over your league in per-possession terms, and you've already played your road games at New Mexico and at San Diego State. You've had the league's best in-conference offense by a mile (thanks entirely and I do mean entirely to offensive boards and trips to the line), and you're neck-and-neck with Steve Alford for the best D (no small feat, that). Larry Eustachy, I salute you! Now the tough part -- walking that supremacy walk all throughout the Mountain's variegated barren and windswept locales, starting tomorrow night in Reno.

BONUS fooling your parents note! The two programs that tricked the venerable and familiar yet doddering and easily confused ("What's a download!") RPI into thinking that they were actually good teams last season, Southern Miss and Colorado State, are actually good teams this season. Conclusion? Fool the RPI, and you're guaranteed to be good the following season.

West Coast: Saint Mary's was advertised as worse than this

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Gonzaga           8-0   64.3    1.20    0.94    +0.26
2.  Saint Mary's      8-1   64.7    1.15    0.94    +0.21
3.  BYU               8-2   69.2    1.13    0.95    +0.18
4.  Santa Clara       5-4   67.7    1.11    1.05    +0.06
5.  San Diego         5-4   63.0    0.97    1.02    -0.05
6.  San Francisco     3-7   66.6    1.01    1.09    -0.08
7.  Pepperdine        2-7   64.2    0.98    1.10    -0.12
8.  Loyola Marymount  1-8   65.5    0.92    1.12    -0.20
9.  Portland          1-8   64.5    0.83    1.06    -0.23

AVG.                        65.7    1.03

The West Coast may have the best team it's had in the last decade in the form of Gonzaga, but the underreported news is that thus far Saint Mary's has been surprisingly mighty as well. That wasn't supposed to be the case with an offense that had just lost a performer as important and effective as Rob Jones, but here we are.

I think Matthew Dellavedova, a bit like the Zags' Elias Harris, kind of gets perceptual points deducted simply because it seems like he's been around forever and freshmen are where it's at. But as it happens the seasoned Aussie is having the best year of his career as a point guard, one that might fairly be termed "Quite Similar to What Trey Burke is Doing, Only Adjusted One Increment toward Normalcy Across the Board." Gonzaga's the superior team, but chalk that up as wacky timing. This could be the best team Randy Bennett's had in Moraga.

John uses fewer decimal points on Twitter: @JohnGasaway.

John Gasaway is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact John by clicking here or click here to see John's other articles.

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