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The first step to making sense of preseason statistics, as discussed earlier this week, is to use the right preseason numbers. Points, rebounds and assists aren't good enough. In that spirit, let's take a look at some of Basketball Prospectus' advanced numbers from the exhibition season through Tuesday. Player statistics will be available to everyone, while team advanced metrics are for subscribers.
WARP LEADERS
Player Tm Win% WARP
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Enes Kanter UTA .817 1.5
Kobe Bryant LAL .803 1.3
Dorell Wright PHI .780 1.3
Marcus Thornton SAC .703 1.2
Martell Webster WAS .774 1.1
Marvin Williams UTA .674 1.1
Glen Davis ORL .741 1.1
Danilo Gallinari DEN .705 1.1
Chris Bosh MIA .799 1.1
Klay Thompson GSW .626 1.1
I got a chance to see Enes Kanter in person on Monday in Portland, and he and the Utah Jazz frontcourt will be the subject of tomorrow's column, but suffice it to say for now that transforming his body over the summer has made Kanter an entirely different--and much more dangerous--player. At the other extreme of the preseason performance spectrum is Kobe Bryant, who has responded quite well to the new additions in L.A., thank you very much. Bryant has made 52 percent of his twos and 45 percent of his threes to put together an efficient offensive line. Bryant and to a much lesser extent Chris Bosh are the two most likely player to appear on a list like this during the regular season.
There's a group of solid players who have played above that level during the preseason. Dorell Wright has led an effective Philadelphia bench (Nick Young has 0.9 WARP and Thaddeus Young 0.8) with 48 percent shooting beyond the arc. Marvin Williams too has been on fire from downtown (56 percent), as has Danilo Gallinari (37 percent, but in seven attempts per game). Marcus Thornton is just getting buckets, averaging 22.2 points per game.
Klay Thompson is the odd man out on this list because of his low winning percentage. Only teammate David Lee has played more minutes, which explains why Thompson does well in a value metric. Then we have two guys who have never previously rated well statistically. Glen Davis is using 28 percent of the Magic's plays and making 54 percent of his twos. One of those two numbers is likely to continue into the regular season, and I'll let you guess which one. Martell Webster, an afterthought in free agency this summer, has put together one of the most fascinating statistical lines of October. In 122 minutes, Webster has 26 free throws (8.5 per 40 minutes), 26 rebounds (ditto), five blocks (1.6 per 40 minutes) and just one turnover. I'm not sure what that tells us, but it is certainly interesting.
POSSESSIONS PER GAME (PACE)
Team Pace Team Pace
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Houston 97.5 Chicago 92.3
San Antonio 97.4 Minnesota 92.1
Dallas 96.3 Brooklyn 92.0
Orlando 96.1 L.A. Lakers 91.4
Denver 95.4 New Orleans 90.7
Lo and behold, the Southwest Division is running and gunning! Houston, an above-average team in terms of pace of play in Kevin McHale's first helm, figures to play much faster with a young roster this season. Rick Carlisle also has a new group that might respond well to an up-tempo style, though as Bryan Gutierrez discussed on The Two Man Game, turnovers have been an issue. Not sure what to make of San Antonio. Jacque Vaughn is the rare first-time head coach who seems to be making good on a promise to play at a high pace.
Do note that this is NOT adjusted for minutes played, and I'm not sure if some stray overtimes have struck in here to inflate figures.
OFFENSIVE RATING
Team ORtg Team ORtg
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Oklahoma City 111.5 Chicago 97.1
Philadelphia 109.5 Indiana 96.9
Houston 107.5 Charlotte 96.1
Toronto 106.8 Detroit 95.0
Portland 106.2 L.A. Lakers 94.8
Even after sitting out Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook Tuesday in Chicago, the Thunder still boasts the league's best preseason offense. The other leaders are surprising, to say the least. Philadelphia, as we've seen, has gotten strong performances from the bench. The others feel particularly unsustainable. Don't get used to seeing the Lakers at the bottom of the league in Offensive Rating. The Bulls' bottom-five spot could be more permanent depending on how well the new bench coalesces.
DEFENSIVE RATING
Team DRtg Team DRtg
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Minnesota 89.3 Houston 106.6
Chicago 93.5 Washington 107.8
Miami 94.7 New York 109.9
New Orleans 96.8 Oklahoma City 110.4
Philadelphia 97.3 Brooklyn 111.3
Whether it's preseason, a scrimmage or a shell drill, the Bulls, Heat and Sixers will excel defensively, so it's no surprise to see them up here. It is surprising to see the Timberwolves atop the league. As NBA.com's John Schuhmann has pointed out, their schedule hasn't been exceptionally difficult. Minnesota has faced several short-handed teams, as well as European club Maccabi Tel Aviv (those international matchups are included here). However, the Timberwolves have upgraded on the wing with the addition of Andrei Kirilenko, and holding any group of opponents to 41.3 percent two-point shooting--a figure that will be even lower after Detroit managed just 33.3 percent on Wednesday--is impressive. We'll see whether Rick Adelman can maintain this into the regular season.
On the other end, Avery Johnson's concerns about his team's defense are certainly well-founded. It's possible that a poor defensive frontcourt may be too much for the Nets to overcome. The Thunder and Knicks should also be considered about poor exhibition defense.
COMPLETE PRESEASON TEAM STATS AND RANKINGS
Team Pace Rk ORtg Rk DRtg Rk
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Atlanta 95.2 6 103.5 16 98.1 10
Boston 92.6 24 104.0 12 99.9 13
Brooklyn 92.0 27 104.9 9 111.3 29
Charlotte 93.5 18 96.1 27 103.0 18
Chicago 92.3 25 97.1 25 93.5 2
Cleveland 93.7 16 98.6 24 104.9 21
Dallas 96.3 3 99.4 21 98.4 11
Denver 95.4 5 101.7 20 104.9 22
Detroit 94.2 11 95.0 28 100.0 14
Golden State 92.7 23 105.3 8 98.1 9
Team Pace Rk ORtg Rk DRtg Rk
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Houston 97.5 1 107.5 3 106.6 25
Indiana 92.9 21 96.9 26 99.4 12
L.A. Clippers 94.2 10 98.8 22 97.7 7
L.A. Lakers 91.4 28 94.8 29 111.6 30
Memphis 94.8 7 102.3 18 100.8 16
Miami 93.9 14 102.6 17 94.7 3
Milwaukee 93.9 15 103.5 15 101.7 17
Minnesota 92.1 26 98.8 23 89.3 1
New Orleans 90.7 29 90.1 30 96.8 4
New York 92.9 20 103.7 13 109.9 27
Team Pace Rk ORtg Rk DRtg Rk
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Oklahoma City 90.4 30 111.5 1 110.4 28
Orlando 96.1 4 102.0 19 105.5 23
Philadelphia 94.1 12 109.5 2 97.3 5
Phoenix 94.7 8 104.2 11 103.9 20
Portland 93.3 19 106.2 5 106.5 24
San Antonio 97.4 2 105.6 7 100.3 15
Sacramento 94.7 9 104.5 10 103.9 19
Toronto 94.0 13 106.8 4 97.6 6
Utah 93.6 17 105.9 6 97.7 8
Washington 92.9 22 103.6 14 107.8 26
Check out our Pro Basketball Prospectus 2012-13 homepage for more details and to order our annual guide to the NBA, available now in both PDF and paperback format.
Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.
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