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This is the final installment of the log5 conference tourney analysis, with the conferences that get underway Thursday. Keep in mind that to date, only one conference tournament winner (San Diego) was rated lower than the second choice to win a title. All figures listed are the chances of a team getting to a particular round based on log5 computations, with the rightmost column indicating its chances of winning the tournament.
Southeastern
Qtrs Semis Final Champ
E1 Tennessee 100 89.3 66.4 49.9
W1 Mississippi St. 100 63.4 40.5 16.1
W2 Arkansas 100 61.0 20.1 10.9
E2 Kentucky 100 56.6 23.9 7.0
E4 Florida 66.3 27.6 15.5 5.0
E3 Vanderbilt 80.3 35.8 10.3 5.0
W3 Ole Miss 70.4 34.8 14.5 4.2
W5 Alabama 33.7 9.0 3.5 0.7
E5 South Carolina 50.7 5.5 1.5 0.4
W4 LSU 49.3 5.2 1.4 0.4
E6 Georgia 29.6 8.6 2.0 0.3
W6 Auburn 19.7 3.2 0.3 0.07
Format: All games at the Georgia Dome, Atlanta, March 13-16.
Most likely championship matchup: Tennessee vs. Mississippi State (27%)
There's some attention on Kentucky and Arkansas to not kick away at-large bids, although thanks to first-round byes, both should face fairly strong opponents in their opening game and thus not risk a bad loss. For the second straight season, Mississippi State enters the SEC Tournament as a team not getting as much attention as it deserves. This season, they'll end up in the NCAA Tournament, and a strong performance in Atlanta will give them the type of seed (four or five) with which they could do some damage.
Big Ten
Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 Wisconsin 100 95.8 72.6 56.0
3 Indiana 100 74.7 42.1 13.9
2 Purdue 100 68.7 37.3 11.9
4 Michigan St. 100 61.3 18.4 10.4
5 Ohio St. 100 38.7 8.5 3.8
10 Illinois 80.5 28.9 11.8 2.5
6 Minnesota 87.3 24.6 8.4 1.4
8 Iowa 50.1 2.1 0.3 0.04
9 Michigan 49.9 2.1 0.3 0.04
7 Penn St. 19.5 2.3 0.4 0.02
11 Northwestern 12.7 0.7 0.05 0.002
Format: All games at Conseco Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, March 13-16.
Most likely championship matchup: Wisconsin vs. Indiana (31%)
The caste system has been in place in the Big Ten all season; four teams are in Indy simply for decoration. Wisconsin's Big Ten title has been a bit tarnished by the easier schedule they had in conference, but they were the best team in the league. The only way they'll convince most people is to not just win this event, but to avenge the season sweep by Purdue in the process.
Big 12
Qtrs Semis Final Champ
2 Kansas 100 92.3 79.0 68.0
1 Texas 100 80.9 58.3 15.6
3 Kansas St. 100 60.0 11.8 6.5
6 Texas A&M 85.6 38.3 6.5 3.3
4 Oklahoma 100 58.4 21.0 3.1
5 Baylor 80.1 38.0 12.8 1.7
9 Oklahoma St. 64.3 14.2 6.0 0.7
7 Nebraska 56.2 4.7 1.7 0.7
10 Missouri 43.8 2.9 0.9 0.3
8 Texas Tech 35.7 4.9 1.4 0.09
12 Colorado 19.9 3.6 0.4 0.02
11 Iowa St. 14.4 1.7 0.1 0.01
Format: All games at the Sprint Center, Kansas City, March 13-16.
Most likely championship matchup: Texas vs. Kansas (46%)
Kansas and Texas both have hopes for a number-one seed come Sunday, and it appears each would need a tournament title to get it. Of course, the title game will end moments before the brackets are announced, so if Tennessee happens to win the SEC title the day before, it's possible that the committee won't wait to see the outcome of the Big 12 title game. While Texas Tech's chances of even getting to the final are really slim, last week Pat Knight one-upped me by announcing they were zero.
Atlantic Coast
Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 UNC 100 86.9 72.2 41.6
2 Duke 100 87.4 63.5 38.0
3 Clemson 100 75.8 28.3 12.2
4 Va. Tech 100 56.4 13.0 3.2
5 Miami FL 73.1 36.4 8.4 2.0
6 Maryland 65.4 18.3 3.7 0.9
9 Florida St. 53.7 7.5 3.3 0.7
7 Georgia Tech 55.6 7.6 2.4 0.5
8 Wake Forest 46.3 5.7 2.3 0.4
10 Virginia 44.4 5.0 1.4 0.3
11 Boston College 34.6 5.9 0.7 0.1
12 NC State 26.9 7.2 0.8 0.09
Format: All games at Charlotte Bobcats Arena, March 13-16.
Most likely championship matchup: UNC vs. Duke (46%)
The midsection of the ACC has as much to prove as any other conference, with most projections only admitting Miami to the NCAA Tournament in addition to the three locks at the top of the conference. The chance of a team other than those four getting to the final game is only about 25%. Thursday should be interesting, but the games get more predictable from Friday onward.
Ken Pomeroy is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact Ken by clicking here or click here to see Ken's other articles.
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