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All five of these tournaments tip off Wednesday. As always, all figures listed are the chances of a team getting to a particular round based on log5 computations, with the rightmost column indicating its chances of winning the tournament.
Conference USA
Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 Memphis 100 98.5 95.8 91.2
2 UAB 100 64.7 40.1 3.5
3 Houston 100 69.9 32.9 2.3
7 Tulsa 86.7 34.1 17.6 1.1
4 Central Florida 100 59.2 2.3 1.0
5 Southern Miss 93.3 40.5 1.3 0.5
6 UTEP 87.7 29.3 9.2 0.4
8 Marshall 62.1 1.1 0.4 0.1
9 Tulane 37.9 0.4 0.1 0.02
10 East Carolina 13.3 1.2 0.2 0.003
11 SMU 12.3 0.8 0.05 0.0005
12 Rice 6.7 0.3 0.001 0.00005
Format: All games at Memphis, March 12-15.
Most likely championship matchup: UAB at Memphis (38%)
You think there's parity in college basketball? Not in C-USA. Rice's chance of winning this tournament is about 1 in 2 million, while Memphis' is 10 in 11. The sleeper here, if there can be one, is Tulsa, whose only losses in February and March were on the road to Memphis, UAB and Houston. Maybe head coach Doug Wojcik can inspire his troops with tales of how he singlehandedly led Navy to the Elite Eight in 1986.
Mountain West
Qtrs Semis Final Champ
2 UNLV 100 93.5 51.1 32.9
1 BYU 100 92.7 70.1 30.7
3 New Mexico 100 73.1 39.8 26.3
4 San Diego St. 100 70.0 22.7 5.5
6 Utah 100 26.9 8.6 3.7
5 Air Force 100 30.0 5.5 0.7
7 TCU 100 6.5 0.6 0.1
8 Wyoming 70.6 6.2 1.5 0.1
9 Colorado St. 29.4 1.1 0.1 0.004
Format: All games at UNLV, March 12-15.
Most likely championship matchup: BYU at UNLV (36%)
The MWC tourney is rarely kind to the top seed, and this year's edition figures to be no different. Yet again, we have a team that went winless in conference play, but Colorado State's chance of making a run seems realistic compared to Rice's. The best game of the first round is New Mexico/Utah, two underseeded and inconsistent teams that played a pair of last-possession games during the regular season.
Atlantic 10
Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 Xavier 100 84.8 71.8 59.6
5 Saint Joseph's 79.7 63.1 16.5 9.2
3 UMass 100 54.7 29.8 8.3
2 Temple 100 60.3 30.6 8.2
8 Dayton 79.8 14.2 8.1 4.2
10 Duquesne 75.5 34.4 15.9 3.8
6 Charlotte 52.3 24.2 12.3 3.1
11 Rhode Island 47.7 21.0 10.2 2.4
4 Richmond 100 27.0 2.5 0.6
12 Fordham 20.3 9.9 0.9 0.2
7 La Salle 24.5 5.2 1.1 0.1
9 Saint Louis 20.2 1.0 0.3 0.06
Format: All games at Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, N.J., March 12-15.
Most likely championship matchup: Xavier vs. Temple (22%)
Wow, take Xavier off the board and the true character of the A-10 comes out. Seeds seemingly mean nothing in a league of evenly matched teams. It wasn't too long ago that this conference was George Washington and a bunch of incredibly slow-paced teams. That has changed with Travis Ford, Jim Baron and Ron Everhart entering the league's coaching ranks. With a lot possessions and the potential for mass chaos, the A-10 should put on an exciting event. I was planning on devoting a few words to Duquesne and their unusual style at some point, but their play never allowed it. Maybe they can get it going on the Boardwalk. Having a one-in-six chance to reach the final game is as good as you'll see for a ten seed.
Big East
Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 Georgetown 100 77.7 49.1 27.3
2 Louisville 100 75.5 45.2 26.2
6 Marquette 90.4 55.8 28.7 15.4
4 UConn 100 55.2 24.3 10.5
3 Notre Dame 100 42.8 17.1 7.2
5 West Virginia 81.6 41.3 18.4 8.1
7 Pitt 81.2 23.0 8.6 3.1
9 Syracuse 60.9 15.3 5.7 1.7
8 Villanova 39.1 6.9 1.9 0.4
12 Providence 18.4 3.4 0.6 0.09
10 Cincinnati 18.8 1.6 0.2 0.02
11 Seton Hall 9.6 1.4 0.2 0.02
Format: All games at Madison Square Garden, March 12-15.
Most likely championship matchup: Georgetown vs. Louisville (22%)
The Big East won't be a cakewalk for any team, which is what happens when you have five solid teams that are similar in strength. I believe Marquette would be the first team to go 4-0 in two different conference tourneys if they were to pull this off. Back in '97, they won the CUSA Tourney by winning four games in four days.
Pacific 10
Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 UCLA 100 89.4 73.0 53.7
3 Washington St. 100 73.9 42.5 17.3
2 Stanford 100 58.5 30.3 11.2
4 USC 100 66.0 17.5 7.7
7 Arizona 96.8 41.4 18.6 5.8
6 Oregon 100 26.1 8.5 1.8
5 Arizona St. 100 34.0 5.7 1.6
8 Washington 51.3 5.6 2.0 0.5
9 California 48.7 5.1 1.8 0.4
10 Oregon St. 3.2 0.08 0.002 0.00004
Format: All games at Staples Center, Los Angeles, March 12-15.
Most likely championship matchup: UCLA vs. Washington State (31%)
Washington State is developing into a decent sleeper in the real tournament. They'll get a bit of an audition this week in L.A. UCLA is coming in with a two-game losing...er, winning streak, but its last homestand provided enough evidence that it isn't invincible. Oregon State, by the way, has a one in 2.4 million chance to win this thing. They went 0-18 in the Pac-10 with only two of those defeats by single digits. However, they are still trying and were competitive in recent games against Arizona State and Oregon for 25-30 minutes. They would have the gratitude of bubble teams everywhere if they could take down Arizona in the first round.
Ken Pomeroy is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact Ken by clicking here or click here to see Ken's other articles.
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