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There are 15 conference tournaments that will tip off this week. Let's get the one-bidders out of the way today, with more log5 analysis on each team's chances of advancing through its conference tournament. All figures listed are the chances of a team getting to a particular round, with the rightmost column indicating its chances of winning the tournament.
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 Morgan St. 100 90.6 75.9 56.4
2 Hampton 100 82.0 62.0 26.5
4 Delaware St. 100 65.7 15.6 6.7
3 Norfolk St. 100 52.4 15.5 3.3
6 Florida A&M 87.4 45.9 14.5 3.3
5 NC A&T 100 34.3 5.2 1.5
7 Coppin St. 79.6 16.7 7.6 1.4
8 S. Carolina St. 53.1 5.2 1.9 0.5
9 Bethune Cookman 46.9 4.1 1.4 0.3
10 Howard 20.4 1.3 0.2 0.02
11 UMES 12.6 1.7 0.1 0.006
Format: All games at the RBC Center, Raleigh, N.C., March 11-15.
Most likely championship matchup: Morgan State vs. Hampton (47%)
I've had a vision in which Morgan State wins this event and then takes on a particularly undisciplined #1 seed that depends to a certain extent on a very good three-point shooter, which results in a stunning and historic victory for the Bears. My man Todd Bozeman has taken Morgan State from one of the worst teams in D-I to the top of the MEAC, and it would be a great story if he did just a little bit more with this team. However, the odds against all of that occurring are overwhelming. Chances of getting a 16 seed are fairly good, though. However, the Bears may get challenges in the second round from Delaware State and in the finals from Hampton.
Mid-American Conference
Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 Kent St. 100 90.4 55.1 32.8
3 Akron 100 84.2 50.0 24.7
2 Western Michigan 100 82.9 42.5 19.3
5 Miami OH 81.6 46.0 21.9 11.6
4 Ohio 100 49.9 20.8 9.8
6 Central Michigan 69.6 13.1 3.6 0.7
7 Eastern Michigan 62.2 12.2 2.8 0.5
9 Bowling Green 58.0 6.2 1.0 0.2
12 Buffalo 18.4 4.1 0.8 0.2
10 Ball St. 37.8 4.9 0.8 0.09
8 Toledo 42.0 3.4 0.4 0.05
11 Northern Illinois 30.4 2.8 0.4 0.04
Format: All games at Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, Ohio, March 12-15.
Most likely championship matchup: Kent State vs. Akron (28%)
For the first time since 1999, the MAC may not be a one-bid league. It should be noted that based on the data gathered by The Bracket Project, Kent State looks very good to get in right now. Add another MAC loss, though, and a bid won't be a sure thing, especially if some other bubble teams rise up from the ashes this week. It's interesting how Kent gets a lot of credit for winning their Bracket Buster at Saint Mary's despite Gaels' center Omar Samhan getting injured early in the game. Gonzaga's Jeremy Pargo won WCC Player of the Year, but I'd argue it should have been Samhan. Kent is far from a sure thing to take the title in Cleveland, so it will be interesting to see if this piece of information comes into play when bids are handed out.
Western Athletic Conference
Qtrs Semis Final Champ
3 New Mexico St. 100 97.0 74.5 58.9
1 Utah St. 100 89.2 58.4 17.2
2 Nevada 100 75.8 22.1 14.1
4 Boise St. 100 75.2 33.6 8.0
7 Fresno St. 100 24.2 3.1 1.0
5 Hawaii 100 24.8 5.6 0.6
8 San Jose St. 75.9 9.7 2.3 0.2
6 Idaho 100 3.0 0.3 0.04
9 Louisiana Tech 24.1 1.1 0.1 0.002
Format: All games at New Mexico State, March 11, 13-15.
Most likely championship matchup: Utah State at New Mexico State (44%)
For the first time in a long time, the WAC Tournament has no at-large intrigue associated with it. This is all about the auto-bid, and it's heavily influenced by location and seeding. There was a four-way tie atop the standings, and even though they got the three-seed, New Mexico State drew the most favorable first-round matchup. Their opponent is the Idaho Vandals, a team that went 5-11 in conference, but two of those wins were in overtime and the other three were by a combined 18 points, while just three of their losses were by single digits. The favorable draw plus the home-court advantage means that the Aggies are one of just two three-seeds in the country to have the best chance of winning its conference tournament.
Big West Conference
Qtrs Semis Final Champ
3 Cal St. Fullerton 100 91.6 53.9 32.5
1 UC Santa Barbara 100 100 57.8 27.8
2 Cal St. Northridge 100 100 47.1 24.3
4 Pacific 100 59.3 26.1 11.0
5 UC Irvine 87.9 38.9 15.0 5.5
6 Cal Poly 60.7 6.6 0.9 0.1
7 UC Riverside 39.3 4.3 0.4 0.04
8 Long Beach St. 12.1 0.7 0.1 0.004
Format: All games at Anaheim (Ca.) Convention Center, March 12-15.
Most likely championship matchup: UC Santa Barbara vs. Cal St. Fullerton (31%)
The Big West employs the stepladder approach to its tournament, and also re-seeds with every round. In order to keep the computations simple, I've ignored the latter aspect of this equation. Because the bottom three teams are so much worse than the rest of the league, it wouldn't change the overall chances of a title by more than 1%. The top three teams tied for the regular-season title; Fullerton has been marginally better than the other two over the course of the season.
Southwestern Athletic Conference
Semis Final Champ
1 Alabama St. 90.8 74.2 61.0
2 Miss. Valley St. 75.5 41.2 11.8
3 Alabama A&M 66.8 38.2 11.2
4 Jackson St. 52.3 12.3 6.5
5 Southern 47.7 10.6 5.3
6 Ark. Pine Bluff 33.2 13.6 2.5
7 Grambling 24.5 7.0 0.9
8 Texas Southern 9.2 2.9 0.9
Format: All games at Fair Park Arena, Birmingham, Alabama, March 12-15.
Most likely championship matchup: Alabama State vs. Mississippi Valley State (31%)
One of the great injustices of our time is the play-in game in the NCAA Tournament. The winner of the SWAC tourney will likely be playing in it. Congratulations to the SWAC for providing us with one of two brackets (the WCC being the other) where the seeding reflects each team's chances of winning the title.
Southland Conference
Semis Final Champ
1 Stephen F. Austin 93.4 79.6 55.0
3 Sam Houston St. 84.0 54.4 24.5
2 Lamar 63.0 28.8 10.4
4 SE Louisiana 72.6 15.5 5.2
7 UT Arlington 37.0 12.6 3.3
6 McNeese St. 16.0 4.2 0.7
5 Northwestern St. 27.4 2.9 0.5
8 UT San Antonio 6.6 2.0 0.3
Format: All games at the Merrell Center, Katy, Texas, March 13, 14, 16.
Most likely championship matchup: Stephen F. Austin vs. Sam Houston State (43%)
The Southland leaves their worst three teams behind for this event. SFA won at Oklahoma earlier this season, and the Lumberjacks have just four losses overall, including one at Texas Tech, another by one point in overtime, and a third by two points. They're the best team in the Southland. On an unrelated note, one of Lamar's starters is actually named Lamar, which I found interesting.
Tomorrow: The biggest favorite and biggest longshot in the land, and the only conference in which no team claims a 30% chance of winning the league title.
Ken Pomeroy is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact Ken by clicking here or click here to see Ken's other articles.
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