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April 25, 2012
Lottery Odds
April 25

by Dan Feldman

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Most lottery odds are projected with a single set of rankings--typically either the current standings or a projected finish. Thanks to our simulation of the rest of the regular season, run 1,000 times, we can provide even more accurate lottery odds, odds weighted by how likely each team is to finish in each spot of the standings

Mouse over sections of each bar to see more information. Check and uncheck teams on the right to see a single squad's odds or compare teams.

Due to trades, the following provisions are included:

  • Trail Blazers receive the Nets' pick (top-3 protected)
  • Rockets receive the Knicks' pick (top-5 protected)
  • Jazz receive the Warriors' pick (top-7 protected)
  • Celtics receive the Clippers' pick (top-10 protected)
  • Hornets receive the Timberwolves' pick (unprotected)

Ties in the standings are randomly broken due to the format of the simulation. In the actual lottery, tied teams will split the lottery combinations given to their seeds.

Dan Feldman is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Dan by clicking here or click here to see Dan's other articles.

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Premium Article Projection vs. Product... (04/25)
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