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April 26, 2012
The Playoff Picture
April 26

Basketball Prospectus

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These are generated by simulating the remainder of the season 1,000 times using a program written by Bradford Doolittle. To rate teams, we've used schedule-adjusted performance since March 1 onward. What makes these ratings unique is that they project seeding, using the actual rules about division champions, as well as home-court advantage.

It's our final update of the simulations for the season. I hope you've enjoyed following the changing outcomes, as Utah Jazz fans surely have.

Entering the final night of the season, we're still looking to resolve home-court advantage between Atlanta and Boston, the 7th and 8th seeds in the East, home-court advantage between the L.A. Clippers and Memphis and the 6th and 7th seeds in the West.

The Hawks, Knicks, Grizzlies and Nuggets are all clear favorites to win their games and pick up the better seed/location. In three of those cases, the chance of the other team losing increases those odds. So Memphis/L.A. Clippers is the only outcome that's really in serious doubt, though the Magic is hobbling to FedExForum with another player (Glen Davis) injured and nothing on the line. So we might not end up with much drama, at least after the first three quarters.

Team           AvgW    Play    Div     HCA       1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chicago        49.9   100.0   100.0   100.0   100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Miami          46.6   100.0   100.0   100.0     0.0   100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Indiana        42.0   100.0     0.0   100.0     0.0     0.0   100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Atlanta        39.8   100.0     0.0    85.7     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0   100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Boston         38.7   100.0   100.0    14.3     0.0     0.0     0.0   100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Orlando        37.3   100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0   100.0     0.0     0.0
New York       35.9   100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0    95.8     4.2
Philadelphia   35.6   100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     4.2    95.8
Milwaukee      31.3     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Detroit        24.4     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Toronto        22.7     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
New Jersey     22.3     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Washington     20.4     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Cleveland      20.1     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Charlotte       7.1     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0

Team           AvgW    Play    Div     HCA       1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
San Antonio    49.9   100.0   100.0   100.0   100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Oklahoma City  47.0   100.0   100.0   100.0     0.0   100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
L.A. Lakers    41.6   100.0   100.0   100.0     0.0     0.0   100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Memphis        40.7   100.0     0.0    68.6     0.0     0.0     0.0    68.6    31.4     0.0     0.0     0.0
L.A. Clippers  40.0   100.0     0.0    31.4     0.0     0.0     0.0    31.4    68.6     0.0     0.0     0.0
Denver         37.6   100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0    91.9     8.1     0.0
Dallas         36.2   100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     8.1    91.9     0.0
Utah           35.8   100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0   100.0
Houston        33.7     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Phoenix        33.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Portland       28.2     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Minnesota      26.4     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Golden State   23.1     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Sacramento     21.4     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
New Orleans    21.3     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0

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