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At Freakonomics and the Wages of Wins (twice), Dave Berri, Arturo Galletti and Andres Alvarez argued that the Portland Trail Blazers erred by overtly trying to leave the "treadmill of mediocrity (tanking the season in order to eventually obtain a star via the draft). Although it has long been believed that the worst place to be in the NBA is the mediocre 37-45 win range, where you have no hope of contending for a title and never draft high enough to acquire a franchise-altering star, Berri and company found that really good (55-plus wins) teams rarely become such via a tank-tastic season. Only 29 of 150 really good teams won 29 or fewer games four years before; most were already really good beforehand, illustrating the NBA's core problem with competitive balance: the good teams stay good and the bad teams stay bad.
Of course, this information isn't all that informative to a team on the treadmill. A team like that isn't already really good, and it needs to know how best to get to contender status--by staying on the treadmill and incrementally improving, or by blowing things up and starting from scratch via the draft. To answer that question, let's first look for textbook examples of treadmill teams. To that end, I searched for every team in the salary cap era (1985-present) that had three consecutive seasons of 37-45 wins per 82 games, the kind of mediocrity that defines the treadmill. There were twelve such teams (lumping together teams that had multiple consecutive qualifying seasons):
Let me stress that the goal of every team should be to win a championship, or at least realistically contend for one. A true "treadmill escape" would entail making the Finals or coming close in the Conference Finals. With that definition in mind, did any of these teams actually escape the treadmill in a meaningful way?
Stayed On Treadmill
Team Post-Treadmill Ceiling
1990-93 Indiana Pacers Lost Finals (2000)
1985-87 Utah Jazz Lost Finals (1997, 98)
1997-99 Minnesota Timberwolves Lost Western Conference Finals (2004)
1999-04 Seattle SuperSonics Lost Western Conference Semifinals (2005)
1990-93 Atlanta Hawks Lost Eastern Conference Semifinals (1994, 96, 97, 99)
2002-04 Milwaukee Bucks Lost Eastern Conference First Round (2006)
1989-91 Golden State Warriors Lost Western Conference First Round (1992, 94)
Blew It Up
Team Post-Treadmill Ceiling
1996-98 Washington Wizards None (High draft pick: No. 1, 2001)
2000-03 Orlando Magic None (High draft pick: No. 1, 2004)
2005-08 Washington Wizards None (High draft pick: No. 1, 2010)
1985-89 Washington Bullets None (High draft pick: No. 4, 1995)
1992-94 New Jersey Nets None (High draft pick: No. 7, 1997)
Two of the seven teams who stayed on the treadmill ended up making the Finals and losing. Not coincidentally, those two already had their stars--Stockton/Malone and Miller/Smits--in place during their final treadmill year, stars that were acquired with via the draft. All but Malone was a top-13 pick. Another team on the list, the Kevin Garnett-led Timberwolves, eventually went to the conference finals, although they lost in six to a Lakers team that in turn lost in five to the Pistons in the finals. As for the rest, they failed to reach even those modest heights. Meanwhile, three of the five teams who blew it up landed the first overall pick, to mixed results. Orlando hit a home run with Dwight Howard, the jury is still out on John Wall, and Kwame Brown was/is a functioning bust. Since none of these teams won a championship, and the sample is small anyway, it's not clear which path best leads to contention. But the data says every team who stuck with the treadmill without an existing young star failed to come anywhere close to a ring.
Perhaps more informative, though, would be a look at the NBA finalists in the lottery era. Did their best players come from the types of picks you'd get via tanking?
YEAR CHAMP BEST_PLYR ACQ ORIG PIK | RNRUP BEST_PLYR ACQ ORIG PIK
1986 BOS L.Bird DR BOS 6 | HOU H.Olajuwon DR HOU 1
1987 LAL M.Johnson T LAL 1 | BOS L.Bird DR BOS 6
1988 LAL M.Johnson T LAL 1 | DET I.Thomas DR DET 2
1989 DET I.Thomas DR DET 2 | LAL J.Worthy T LAL 1
1990 DET I.Thomas DR DET 2 | POR C.Drexler T POR 14
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1991 CHI M.Jordan DR CHI 3 | LAL M.Johnson T LAL 1
1992 CHI M.Jordan DR CHI 3 | POR C.Drexler T POR 14
1993 CHI M.Jordan DR CHI 3 | PHO C.Barkley T PHI 5
1994 HOU H.Olajuwon DR HOU 1 | NYK P.Ewing DR NYK 1
1995 HOU H.Olajuwon DR HOU 1 | ORL S.O'Neal DR ORL 1
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1996 CHI M.Jordan DR CHI 3 | SEA G.Payton T SEA 2
1997 CHI M.Jordan DR CHI 3 | UTA K.Malone DR UTA 13
1998 CHI M.Jordan DR CHI 3 | UTA K.Malone DR UTA 13
1999 SAS T.Duncan DR SAS 1 | NYK L.Sprewell T GSW 24
2000 LAL S.O'Neal FA ORL 1 | IND J.Rose T DEN 13
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2001 LAL S.O'Neal FA ORL 1 | PHI A.Iverson DR PHI 1
2002 LAL S.O'Neal FA ORL 1 | NJN J.Kidd T DAL 2
2003 SAS T.Duncan DR SAS 1 | NJN J.Kidd T DAL 2
2004 DET B.Wallace T WSB -- | LAL S.O'Neal FA ORL 1
2005 SAS T.Duncan DR SAS 1 | DET R.Hamilton T WAS 7
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2006 MIA D.Wade DR MIA 5 | DAL D.Nowitzki T DAL 9
2007 SAS T.Duncan DR SAS 1 | CLE L.James DR CLE 1
2008 BOS K.Garnett T MIN 5 | LAL K.Bryant T LAL 13
2009 LAL K.Bryant T LAL 13 | ORL D.Howard DR ORL 1
2010 LAL K.Bryant T LAL 13 | BOS R.Rondo T BOS 21
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2011 DAL D.Nowitzki T DAL 9 | MIA L.James T CLE 1
KEY: FA-free agent, T-trade, DR-draft.
Of the 26 NBA champs since 1986, 16 were led by a player the team acquired via the draft. Five more were led by players (Kobe, Magic, Dirk) not technically drafted by the team they won it all with, but nonetheless players who had never played for another team in their careers. Of those 21e teams, eight were led by No. 1 overall draft picks, ten by top-two picks, sixteen by top-three picks, and seventeen by top-five picks. These are the players you hope to get by tanking. To drive the point home further: Only four NBA champions in the last 26 years were led by players selected outside the top six picks in the draft.
When you look at the runners-up, there appear to be some hope for the anti-tanking brigade. Eight of those teams were led by players whom they had not originally drafted or obtained via draft-day trades, with seven coming via mid-career trades. Also, 11 runners-up were led by players drafted outside the top five picks.
But as a rule, most Finalists were not good before their best player's arrival:
Year Team Best Player ACQ BEF
1986 BOS Larry Bird* DR 29
1986 HOU Hakeem Olajuwon* DR 29
1987 LAL Magic Johnson* T 47
1987 BOS Larry Bird* DR 29
1988 LAL Magic Johnson* T 47
1988 DET Isiah Thomas* DR 21
1989 LAL James Worthy* T 57
1989 DET Isiah Thomas* DR 21
1990 POR Clyde Drexler* T 46
1990 DET Isiah Thomas* DR 21
1991 LAL Magic Johnson* T 47
1991 CHI Michael Jordan* DR 27
1992 POR Clyde Drexler* T 46
1992 CHI Michael Jordan* DR 27
1993 PHO Charles Barkley T 53
1993 CHI Michael Jordan* DR 27
1994 HOU Hakeem Olajuwon* DR 29
1994 NYK Patrick Ewing* DR 24
1995 HOU Hakeem Olajuwon* DR 29
1995 ORL Shaquille O'Neal* DR 21
1996 SEA Gary Payton* T 41
1996 CHI Michael Jordan* DR 27
1997 UTA Karl Malone* DR 41
1997 CHI Michael Jordan* DR 27
1998 UTA Karl Malone* DR 41
1998 CHI Michael Jordan* DR 27
1999 NYK Latrell Sprewell T 43
1999 SAS Tim Duncan* DR 20
2000 LAL Shaquille O'Neal FA 53
2000 IND Jalen Rose T 52
2001 LAL Shaquille O'Neal FA 53
2001 PHI Allen Iverson* DR 18
2002 LAL Shaquille O'Neal FA 53
2002 NJN Jason Kidd T 26
2003 NJN Jason Kidd T 26
2003 SAS Tim Duncan* DR 20
2004 LAL Shaquille O'Neal FA 53
2004 DET Ben Wallace T 42
2005 DET Richard Hamilton T 50
2005 SAS Tim Duncan* DR 20
2006 MIA Dwyane Wade* DR 25
2006 DAL Dirk Nowitzki* T 20
2007 SAS Tim Duncan* DR 20
2007 CLE LeBron James* DR 17
2008 LAL Kobe Bryant* T 53
2008 BOS Kevin Garnett T 24
2009 LAL Kobe Bryant* T 53
2009 ORL Dwight Howard* DR 21
2010 LAL Kobe Bryant* T 53
2010 BOS Rajon Rondo* T 33
2011 MIA LeBron James T 47
2011 DAL Dirk Nowitzki* T 20
NOTES: ACQ--How player was acquired
(FA-free agent, T-trade, DR-draft);
BEF--franchise's wins per 82 games
in season before player's arrival;
*--indicates the player went to
Finals with his original team.
Teams who were led to the Finals by players they drafted (or otherwise acquired before their NBA debut) averaged just 31.3 wins per 82 games in the season prior to acquiring the player, and that number is skewed by teams like the 1989 Lakers, who were already good when acquiring James Worthy with Cleveland's 1st-round pick. 27 of the 39 finalists (69.2 percent) who were led by original-team players had 33 or fewer wins the year before picking up their star. 21 of the 39 (53.8 percent) won 27 games or fewer, and 13 of the 39 (33%) won 21 or fewer. Simply put, the vast majority (75 percent) of NBA Finalists acquire their stars via the draft or draft-day trades, and the majority of those players came to the team after a tank-worthy season.
It's always possible to build a team in a different way--look at the 2004 Pistons, for instance--but that formula has produced just 13 finalists and five champions in the last 26 seasons, and five of those (four from Shaq, one from LeBron) were the result of a player being lured by an attractive free-agent destination. Moreover, only five of the last 52 finalists were in the treadmill zone (37-45 wins) before acquiring their best player. It seems clear from the data, then, that it is in fact necessary to be bad (winning 27 or fewer games) to acquire a player capable of leading your team to the finals someday.
Neil Paine is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact Neil by clicking here or click here to see Neil's other articles.
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One of a Kind (04/04)
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