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This time of year, everyone is ready to offer their opinion about the NCAA tournament--predictions frequently based on superstitions, small sample sizes, or regurgitated talk-radio takes. I’m not here to present any of that; instead, I’m going to use cold, hard data to project the brackets, simulating the tournament thousands of times to find the most likely outcomes according to various rating systems.
When constructing a tournament simulation, the first step is to choose the most predictive ratings to base the game-by-game probabilities on. Statisticians have long known that ratings based on margin of victory outperform ones based solely on wins and losses, because they include more information. To that end, I selected five ratings that use point margins, are in common use, and can be used to make predictions: Ken Pomeroy’s Pythagorean ratings, Kenneth Massey’s MOV ratings, Basketball-Reference’s Simple Rating System and a Pythagorean method based on their adjusted Offensive & Defensive Ratings, and Jeff Sagarin’s Predictor rating. In addition, I ran a “control” simulation based on no information but seed differentials.
Plugging those numbers into a Monte Carlo simulator, I played the tournament’s 67 games ten thousand times apiece for each rating system and another 10,000 times using the seeds. I tracked the winner of every game in each simulated tourney, summarizing the outcomes. I’ll go through each system one at a time (teams are sorted by expected ESPN Tournament Challenge points):
Pomeroy
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Kentucky .981 .832 .600 .479 .310 .191 199.3
Ohio St. .949 .805 .665 .455 .305 .188 197.6
Michigan St. .965 .652 .499 .356 .220 .127 146.9
Kansas .916 .709 .514 .337 .172 .092 127.8
North Carolina .900 .674 .509 .291 .143 .069 111.0
Missouri .958 .641 .466 .230 .115 .053 94.9
Syracuse .906 .658 .372 .178 .098 .044 81.2
Wisconsin .871 .586 .343 .165 .094 .046 76.9
Baylor .735 .517 .324 .113 .044 .017 52.2
Wichita St. .778 .460 .177 .122 .058 .026 51.2
Duke .769 .523 .286 .087 .032 .011 45.3
Indiana .778 .414 .145 .091 .041 .018 41.5
Georgetown .593 .422 .186 .099 .038 .014 40.3
Marquette .694 .491 .204 .077 .028 .009 38.3
Memphis .595 .225 .143 .087 .040 .018 35.3
New Mexico .661 .408 .140 .069 .026 .010 33.2
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Michigan .699 .394 .149 .054 .016 .005 29.4
Vanderbilt .673 .288 .138 .052 .024 .009 28.7
Louisville .711 .356 .105 .044 .015 .004 25.8
Florida St. .662 .366 .100 .036 .014 .004 24.4
Kansas St. .718 .263 .097 .031 .012 .004 21.9
Florida .545 .205 .124 .040 .015 .005 21.8
UNLV .665 .272 .134 .030 .009 .002 21.8
Purdue .614 .184 .091 .037 .011 .004 19.5
Belmont .407 .256 .090 .037 .011 .003 18.3
Alabama .548 .175 .090 .031 .008 .002 17.0
Texas .524 .268 .068 .022 .008 .002 16.8
Notre Dame .563 .233 .095 .020 .004 .001 16.7
Temple .502 .246 .076 .023 .006 .002 16.3
Saint Louis .405 .120 .069 .035 .014 .005 15.9
Murray St. .603 .235 .067 .015 .004 .001 15.3
California .364 .195 .075 .026 .008 .002 14.6
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Cincinnati .476 .232 .056 .018 .006 .002 14.6
Virginia .455 .150 .080 .022 .007 .001 14.0
N.C. St. .543 .182 .045 .015 .003 .001 12.8
Gonzaga .563 .110 .054 .017 .006 .001 12.7
Creighton .452 .126 .062 .020 .005 .001 12.3
Iowa St. .544 .095 .035 .017 .006 .002 11.5
Xavier .437 .158 .060 .010 .002 .000 11.1
San Diego St. .457 .140 .033 .010 .002 .000 9.9
Long Beach St. .339 .151 .031 .011 .003 .001 9.1
Saint Mary's .386 .089 .037 .013 .002 .001 8.7
West Virginia .437 .074 .031 .009 .003 .001 8.5
South Dakota St. .265 .120 .046 .008 .002 .001 8.1
Connecticut .456 .070 .022 .008 .002 .000 8.0
St. Bonaventure .339 .135 .023 .007 .002 .000 7.9
Harvard .328 .095 .030 .008 .002 .001 7.6
Colorado St. .397 .118 .022 .003 .000 .000 7.5
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Colorado .335 .092 .030 .005 .001 .000 6.9
Ohio .301 .109 .020 .004 .001 .000 6.5
Davidson .289 .086 .013 .003 .001 .000 5.6
Lehigh .231 .086 .025 .003 .000 .000 5.4
VCU .222 .070 .012 .005 .001 .000 4.8
So. Mississippi .282 .058 .013 .002 .000 .000 4.8
Brigham Young .163 .084 .022 .005 .001 .000 4.8
New Mexico St. .222 .056 .010 .003 .000 .000 4.0
Iona .143 .072 .016 .004 .000 .000 3.9
South Florida .134 .056 .012 .003 .000 .000 3.2
Montana .129 .030 .007 .001 .000 .000 2.2
Detroit .084 .018 .005 .001 .000 .000 1.5
UNC-Asheville .094 .020 .002 .000 .000 .000 1.4
Lamar .059 .017 .005 .001 .000 .000 1.2
Loyola-Maryland .051 .011 .002 .000 .000 .000 0.8
Vermont .041 .009 .002 .000 .000 .000 0.7
Norfolk St. .042 .004 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.5
LIU-Brooklyn .035 .002 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.4
Western KY .016 .003 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.2
MS Valley St. .004 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0
Cinderellas (chances of #6 Seeds or Lower making the Sweet 16):
Team Region Sd Odds
--------------------------------------
UNLV South 6 .272
Texas East 11 .268
Kansas State East 8 .263
Belmont Midwest 14 .256
Murray State West 6 .235
Notre Dame South 7 .233
Cincinnati East 6 .232
Memphis West 8 .225
Florida West 7 .205
California Midwest 12 .195
Massey
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Kentucky .994 .865 .677 .527 .311 .190 207.1
Ohio St. .966 .799 .643 .444 .285 .158 183.0
Michigan St. .985 .753 .585 .406 .257 .165 174.7
North Carolina .953 .775 .632 .422 .239 .122 161.2
Missouri .986 .759 .600 .308 .175 .094 131.7
Kansas .921 .715 .546 .307 .159 .073 118.7
Syracuse .938 .711 .441 .217 .115 .046 91.8
Baylor .800 .605 .373 .137 .049 .018 59.7
Duke .811 .607 .355 .131 .048 .017 58.2
Vanderbilt .756 .453 .223 .093 .042 .016 44.6
Louisville .848 .544 .184 .088 .037 .014 44.3
Wisconsin .855 .438 .201 .078 .032 .010 39.8
Florida St. .736 .452 .147 .063 .026 .009 34.4
Indiana .744 .424 .129 .070 .024 .009 33.4
Georgetown .610 .410 .157 .063 .022 .007 31.5
Michigan .719 .453 .146 .058 .017 .004 30.8
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Marquette .733 .476 .154 .047 .015 .004 30.5
Wichita St. .711 .390 .115 .061 .020 .008 30.0
Memphis .666 .189 .109 .050 .021 .009 25.1
Kansas St. .735 .234 .099 .031 .010 .003 20.9
Murray St. .695 .323 .084 .018 .004 .001 19.2
New Mexico .603 .279 .071 .028 .009 .003 19.1
Florida .620 .169 .101 .030 .009 .002 18.2
Cincinnati .542 .258 .063 .023 .008 .002 16.7
UNLV .652 .230 .088 .016 .003 .000 16.5
Notre Dame .595 .209 .081 .016 .003 .000 15.1
Gonzaga .596 .131 .067 .024 .007 .002 15.0
Belmont .390 .229 .072 .022 .005 .002 14.5
Temple .535 .243 .051 .014 .003 .001 14.1
N.C. St. .558 .214 .057 .015 .003 .001 14.0
Creighton .552 .125 .066 .025 .007 .001 14.0
Saint Mary's .522 .142 .072 .020 .004 .001 13.4
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Purdue .478 .123 .059 .017 .006 .001 12.2
Texas .458 .195 .040 .011 .003 .001 11.6
Alabama .449 .089 .043 .013 .003 .000 9.5
San Diego St. .442 .147 .032 .007 .001 .000 9.5
Connecticut .505 .070 .028 .012 .002 .001 9.1
Long Beach St. .397 .139 .026 .007 .002 .001 8.9
Iowa St. .495 .065 .025 .009 .002 .001 8.6
Virginia .380 .071 .035 .008 .003 .001 7.9
Xavier .405 .105 .030 .004 .001 .000 7.8
West Virginia .404 .062 .026 .007 .001 .001 7.3
Saint Louis .334 .056 .022 .008 .003 .000 6.5
Colorado .348 .076 .021 .002 .000 .000 6.0
Ohio .281 .114 .017 .003 .000 .000 6.0
VCU .289 .099 .015 .005 .001 .000 6.0
California .237 .097 .021 .007 .001 .000 6.0
South Florida .228 .092 .020 .006 .001 .000 5.5
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
South Dakota St. .201 .089 .030 .005 .001 .000 5.5
Harvard .244 .085 .022 .005 .001 .000 5.5
Colorado St. .305 .090 .010 .001 .000 .000 5.5
St. Bonaventure .264 .095 .013 .002 .000 .000 5.4
New Mexico St. .256 .087 .011 .003 .000 .000 5.1
Lehigh .190 .079 .021 .002 .000 .000 4.5
So. Mississippi .266 .045 .009 .002 .000 .000 4.1
Brigham Young .134 .058 .009 .001 .001 .000 3.1
Iona .133 .054 .009 .001 .000 .000 2.8
Davidson .153 .039 .003 .000 .000 .000 2.5
Montana .145 .025 .004 .001 .000 .000 2.1
Detroit .079 .021 .005 .000 .000 .000 1.5
UNC-Asheville .062 .011 .001 .000 .000 .000 0.9
Lamar .034 .010 .003 .000 .000 .000 0.7
Loyola-Maryland .034 .007 .002 .000 .000 .000 0.6
LIU-Brooklyn .015 .002 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.2
Vermont .014 .002 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.2
Norfolk St. .014 .002 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.2
Western KY .005 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.1
MS Valley St. .001 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0
Cinderellas:
Team Region Sd Odds
--------------------------------------
Murray State West 6 .323
Cincinnati East 6 .258
Kansas State East 8 .234
UNLV South 6 .230
Belmont Midwest 14 .229
N.C. State Midwest 11 .214
Notre Dame South 7 .209
Texas East 11 .195
Memphis West 8 .189
Florida West 7 .169
SRS
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Kentucky .997 .872 .637 .507 .345 .207 214.8
Ohio St. .991 .866 .729 .495 .322 .198 210.9
Kansas .974 .796 .627 .395 .202 .109 149.5
North Carolina .975 .777 .638 .375 .195 .107 146.2
Michigan St. .992 .708 .545 .355 .193 .099 136.7
Missouri .992 .678 .511 .277 .133 .061 106.9
Syracuse .968 .751 .482 .233 .123 .060 101.6
Duke .916 .706 .432 .147 .064 .023 69.9
Wisconsin .919 .637 .304 .128 .059 .025 61.9
Indiana .850 .512 .182 .112 .055 .022 50.8
Baylor .831 .549 .296 .091 .037 .012 48.1
Marquette .726 .585 .233 .093 .035 .010 44.5
Wichita St. .845 .425 .134 .077 .035 .012 37.7
Georgetown .670 .480 .173 .073 .021 .007 34.5
New Mexico .734 .432 .144 .061 .019 .006 31.5
Louisville .782 .423 .129 .049 .013 .004 28.7
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Florida .652 .242 .153 .064 .023 .007 28.7
Michigan .771 .448 .124 .036 .009 .002 26.7
UNLV .754 .344 .152 .034 .011 .003 25.8
Florida St. .763 .417 .101 .032 .010 .003 25.1
Memphis .605 .193 .114 .054 .020 .007 24.1
Vanderbilt .781 .312 .108 .032 .012 .003 23.9
Kansas St. .759 .218 .094 .027 .009 .003 20.0
Texas .567 .308 .068 .024 .006 .002 17.9
California .427 .241 .068 .023 .006 .002 15.1
Purdue .611 .138 .068 .022 .006 .001 14.7
Notre Dame .579 .172 .063 .010 .003 .000 13.1
N.C. St. .577 .215 .046 .011 .001 .000 13.0
Alabama .512 .114 .059 .020 .004 .001 12.1
Creighton .488 .106 .058 .018 .004 .000 11.6
Cincinnati .433 .213 .037 .010 .003 .000 11.4
Temple .454 .200 .040 .008 .002 .000 11.1
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Saint Louis .395 .098 .051 .019 .005 .001 10.4
Murray St. .546 .149 .019 .003 .000 .000 9.6
Belmont .330 .177 .039 .010 .002 .001 9.6
Iowa St. .527 .070 .023 .009 .002 .001 8.9
Gonzaga .503 .066 .031 .009 .002 .001 8.7
Virginia .348 .079 .040 .014 .004 .001 8.6
West Virginia .497 .067 .030 .008 .002 .001 8.6
San Diego St. .423 .128 .021 .004 .000 .000 7.9
Xavier .421 .101 .029 .003 .001 .000 7.8
Connecticut .474 .058 .018 .007 .002 .000 7.4
Colorado St. .454 .103 .011 .001 .000 .000 7.2
Saint Mary's .389 .062 .026 .006 .001 .000 6.7
Brigham Young .192 .122 .026 .006 .001 .000 6.1
Long Beach St. .266 .095 .013 .003 .001 .000 5.5
Colorado .246 .056 .013 .001 .000 .000 4.2
Ohio .229 .070 .007 .001 .000 .000 4.1
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
St. Bonaventure .237 .063 .005 .000 .000 .000 3.9
Davidson .219 .051 .004 .001 .000 .000 3.4
South Dakota St. .169 .051 .011 .001 .000 .000 3.2
So. Mississippi .241 .027 .006 .001 .000 .000 3.2
Harvard .220 .037 .005 .001 .000 .000 3.2
New Mexico St. .150 .033 .004 .001 .000 .000 2.4
South Florida .119 .042 .006 .001 .000 .000 2.3
VCU .155 .030 .003 .001 .000 .000 2.3
Iona .082 .041 .006 .001 .000 .000 2.0
Lehigh .084 .022 .003 .000 .000 .000 1.4
Montana .082 .014 .001 .000 .000 .000 1.1
UNC-Asheville .032 .004 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.4
Detroit .026 .004 .001 .000 .000 .000 0.4
Lamar .019 .003 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.3
Loyola-Maryland .009 .001 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.1
LIU-Brooklyn .008 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.1
Vermont .007 .001 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.1
Norfolk St. .008 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.1
Western KY .002 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0
MS Valley St. .001 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0
Cinderellas:
Team Region Sd Odds
--------------------------------------
UNLV South 6 .344
Texas East 11 .308
Florida West 7 .242
California Midwest 12 .241
Kansas State East 8 .218
N.C. State Midwest 11 .215
Cincinnati East 6 .213
Memphis West 8 .193
Belmont Midwest 14 .177
Notre Dame South 7 .172
S-R/CBB Pythagorean Ratings
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Kentucky .987 .849 .633 .508 .349 .206 214.7
Ohio St. .975 .837 .700 .472 .327 .204 209.9
Michigan St. .976 .702 .543 .389 .223 .126 152.5
Kansas .949 .764 .580 .384 .192 .102 141.9
North Carolina .942 .686 .522 .289 .126 .062 107.0
Wisconsin .916 .692 .405 .202 .119 .063 94.4
Syracuse .943 .706 .403 .182 .103 .050 86.6
Missouri .971 .613 .441 .206 .097 .040 84.4
Duke .879 .626 .371 .125 .048 .016 59.0
Baylor .795 .526 .305 .098 .039 .011 48.3
Georgetown .718 .523 .213 .111 .037 .014 45.5
Indiana .813 .458 .157 .090 .044 .018 43.4
Marquette .717 .552 .237 .083 .031 .009 42.1
Wichita St. .795 .440 .152 .092 .039 .014 40.9
Louisville .805 .461 .143 .072 .026 .008 35.6
New Mexico .726 .395 .124 .059 .021 .008 30.9
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Michigan .761 .428 .151 .049 .013 .003 29.2
Florida St. .753 .428 .115 .041 .015 .004 27.7
UNLV .701 .319 .148 .036 .010 .002 24.5
Memphis .544 .172 .103 .054 .023 .008 23.5
Florida .527 .205 .122 .043 .014 .004 21.3
Alabama .589 .199 .112 .040 .011 .003 20.4
Kansas St. .746 .244 .088 .025 .010 .002 20.1
Vanderbilt .716 .236 .084 .025 .009 .003 19.7
Virginia .474 .180 .105 .035 .012 .004 18.5
California .436 .253 .094 .031 .007 .002 17.5
Texas .556 .288 .066 .020 .006 .001 16.9
Purdue .591 .149 .070 .027 .007 .002 15.7
Notre Dame .583 .216 .084 .015 .003 .000 15.3
Saint Louis .456 .124 .065 .034 .012 .003 15.2
N.C. St. .547 .191 .041 .011 .002 .000 12.2
Cincinnati .444 .205 .039 .009 .003 .002 11.8
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Temple .430 .195 .047 .012 .002 .000 11.5
Murray St. .573 .181 .038 .006 .001 .000 11.4
Gonzaga .545 .090 .043 .013 .004 .001 10.7
Creighton .411 .106 .049 .014 .002 .000 9.8
San Diego St. .453 .139 .029 .008 .001 .000 9.4
Iowa St. .516 .081 .025 .011 .003 .001 9.3
Xavier .417 .129 .044 .008 .001 .000 9.3
Belmont .282 .147 .035 .011 .002 .000 8.4
Connecticut .484 .070 .022 .009 .002 .001 8.3
West Virginia .455 .069 .029 .006 .001 .000 7.9
Saint Mary's .409 .079 .031 .008 .001 .000 7.8
Colorado St. .427 .109 .019 .003 .001 .000 7.5
Brigham Young .205 .125 .033 .009 .002 .000 6.9
Colorado .299 .083 .023 .003 .001 .000 6.0
Long Beach St. .274 .096 .015 .004 .001 .000 5.7
St. Bonaventure .247 .080 .009 .002 .000 .000 4.6
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
South Dakota St. .205 .072 .019 .002 .001 .000 4.5
Ohio .239 .070 .011 .002 .000 .000 4.4
Harvard .284 .051 .010 .001 .000 .000 4.4
So. Mississippi .254 .041 .006 .001 .000 .000 3.7
VCU .206 .054 .006 .002 .000 .000 3.7
Davidson .195 .049 .006 .001 .000 .000 3.3
South Florida .134 .054 .013 .003 .000 .000 3.2
New Mexico St. .187 .048 .004 .001 .000 .000 3.1
Lehigh .121 .030 .006 .000 .000 .000 2.1
Iona .079 .034 .006 .001 .000 .000 1.7
Montana .084 .021 .003 .001 .000 .000 1.4
UNC-Asheville .057 .010 .001 .000 .000 .000 0.8
Detroit .051 .009 .001 .000 .000 .000 0.8
Lamar .039 .006 .001 .000 .000 .000 0.5
Loyola-Maryland .026 .004 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.4
Norfolk St. .029 .002 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.3
LIU-Brooklyn .024 .002 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.3
Vermont .019 .003 .001 .000 .000 .000 0.3
Western KY .010 .001 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.1
MS Valley St. .002 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0
Cinderellas:
Team Region Sd Odds
--------------------------------------
UNLV South 6 .319
Texas East 11 .288
California Midwest 12 .253
Kansas State East 8 .244
Notre Dame South 7 .216
Florida West 7 .205
Cincinnati East 6 .205
Alabama Midwest 9 .199
N.C. State Midwest 11 .191
Murray State West 6 .181
Sagarin
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Ohio St. .975 .843 .699 .483 .329 .207 212.0
Kentucky .994 .838 .599 .461 .304 .178 193.2
Michigan St. .976 .680 .519 .354 .203 .112 140.7
Kansas .950 .750 .557 .358 .182 .100 136.7
North Carolina .940 .710 .552 .319 .155 .079 121.4
Missouri .981 .648 .471 .249 .127 .059 100.7
Syracuse .937 .699 .416 .196 .108 .055 90.5
Wisconsin .898 .639 .356 .160 .085 .042 75.9
Duke .825 .608 .357 .130 .057 .021 61.0
Baylor .758 .504 .305 .106 .045 .016 50.5
Indiana .806 .454 .169 .105 .049 .020 46.4
Wichita St. .793 .444 .166 .102 .050 .021 46.2
Marquette .681 .494 .210 .081 .028 .008 38.7
Georgetown .598 .437 .185 .085 .029 .011 37.0
New Mexico .669 .401 .141 .066 .021 .008 31.4
Louisville .732 .378 .116 .048 .015 .004 27.1
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Florida .587 .225 .140 .058 .024 .008 26.8
UNLV .726 .330 .159 .041 .013 .003 26.5
Michigan .698 .383 .129 .045 .011 .003 25.9
Memphis .562 .191 .113 .058 .025 .010 25.8
Florida St. .706 .392 .104 .037 .014 .004 25.6
Vanderbilt .668 .254 .098 .030 .012 .004 21.3
Kansas St. .721 .238 .096 .029 .011 .003 20.9
Texas .576 .312 .078 .027 .008 .002 19.2
Belmont .402 .256 .083 .035 .008 .002 17.2
Alabama .519 .151 .083 .031 .009 .002 16.2
California .405 .228 .076 .026 .007 .002 15.6
Saint Louis .438 .127 .070 .031 .013 .004 15.4
Purdue .578 .148 .069 .027 .007 .002 15.3
Temple .491 .249 .065 .019 .003 .000 14.6
Murray St. .608 .226 .051 .009 .002 .001 13.9
Notre Dame .552 .192 .070 .012 .003 .001 13.7
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Creighton .481 .128 .067 .022 .005 .002 13.2
Virginia .413 .126 .066 .022 .007 .002 12.8
N.C. St. .551 .179 .041 .012 .002 .000 12.0
Cincinnati .424 .195 .036 .010 .002 .001 10.9
Gonzaga .527 .086 .039 .012 .003 .001 10.4
Iowa St. .527 .090 .030 .014 .004 .001 10.3
Xavier .448 .134 .047 .008 .002 .000 10.1
Saint Mary's .422 .091 .039 .012 .002 .001 9.1
Long Beach St. .331 .147 .030 .009 .003 .000 8.8
San Diego St. .449 .128 .024 .006 .001 .000 8.6
West Virginia .473 .067 .031 .008 .002 .001 8.6
Connecticut .473 .071 .024 .009 .003 .001 8.4
Colorado St. .393 .100 .015 .002 .000 .000 6.7
Harvard .332 .082 .021 .004 .001 .000 6.4
Brigham Young .197 .115 .030 .007 .001 .000 6.3
South Dakota St. .242 .098 .031 .005 .001 .000 6.2
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Ohio .302 .103 .017 .003 .000 .000 6.1
St. Bonaventure .294 .102 .012 .003 .001 .000 5.8
Colorado .274 .068 .018 .002 .000 .000 5.0
Davidson .268 .074 .010 .002 .000 .000 4.9
So. Mississippi .279 .049 .010 .001 .000 .000 4.4
Lehigh .175 .067 .015 .002 .001 .000 4.0
VCU .208 .056 .008 .003 .001 .000 3.8
Iona .122 .066 .016 .003 .001 .000 3.6
New Mexico St. .195 .046 .005 .001 .000 .000 3.2
South Florida .105 .038 .007 .001 .000 .000 2.2
Montana .103 .025 .003 .000 .000 .000 1.7
UNC-Asheville .063 .014 .001 .000 .000 .000 1.0
Detroit .050 .010 .002 .000 .000 .000 0.8
Lamar .042 .008 .003 .000 .000 .000 0.7
Loyola-Maryland .025 .004 .001 .000 .000 .000 0.4
LIU-Brooklyn .024 .002 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.3
Vermont .018 .002 .001 .000 .000 .000 0.2
Norfolk St. .019 .001 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.2
Western KY .005 .001 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.1
MS Valley St. .001 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0
Cinderellas:
Team Region Sd Odds
--------------------------------------
UNLV South 6 .330
Texas East 11 .312
Belmont Midwest 14 .256
Kansas State East 8 .238
California Midwest 12 .228
Murray State West 6 .226
Florida West 7 .225
Cincinnati East 6 .195
Notre Dame South 7 .192
Memphis West 8 .191
Pure Seeds
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Michigan St. .935 .732 .493 .306 .179 .102 129.3
Kentucky .932 .738 .490 .298 .176 .101 128.0
Syracuse .935 .730 .481 .295 .172 .095 124.7
North Carolina .934 .725 .484 .292 .168 .096 124.1
Duke .904 .681 .424 .234 .125 .067 99.8
Kansas .906 .673 .416 .226 .121 .068 98.4
Missouri .910 .667 .406 .221 .122 .062 95.7
Ohio St. .909 .670 .405 .220 .121 .061 95.1
Florida St. .870 .592 .327 .171 .085 .040 73.6
Marquette .876 .603 .326 .164 .081 .040 72.6
Baylor .874 .599 .316 .162 .082 .039 71.9
Georgetown .866 .592 .320 .164 .079 .037 70.9
Michigan .831 .504 .235 .118 .057 .024 53.8
Wisconsin .827 .497 .233 .113 .051 .024 52.4
Louisville .823 .494 .223 .110 .050 .022 50.9
Indiana .826 .495 .230 .111 .048 .020 50.3
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Temple .777 .404 .170 .077 .033 .014 38.7
Vanderbilt .772 .399 .170 .075 .032 .015 38.3
Wichita St. .777 .400 .170 .074 .031 .013 37.6
New Mexico .763 .400 .166 .073 .029 .010 36.0
San Diego St. .701 .299 .125 .048 .017 .007 26.7
Cincinnati .701 .295 .121 .047 .019 .006 26.5
Murray St. .702 .292 .123 .046 .018 .006 26.3
UNLV .704 .292 .119 .045 .015 .006 25.5
Florida .632 .222 .092 .033 .011 .003 20.0
Gonzaga .622 .213 .091 .030 .011 .004 19.5
Notre Dame .629 .209 .086 .032 .009 .004 19.1
Saint Mary's .629 .214 .086 .027 .009 .003 18.7
Creighton .542 .148 .053 .019 .006 .003 13.9
Memphis .549 .147 .059 .020 .007 .001 13.9
Kansas St. .543 .143 .056 .018 .005 .001 13.2
Iowa St. .545 .140 .052 .016 .006 .001 13.0
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
So. Mississippi .457 .112 .037 .012 .004 .001 10.3
Saint Louis .452 .106 .038 .014 .004 .001 10.1
Alabama .458 .112 .038 .012 .003 .000 10.0
Connecticut .455 .108 .037 .012 .003 .001 9.9
West Virginia .378 .096 .028 .008 .002 .001 7.9
Purdue .371 .091 .025 .007 .002 .000 7.5
Virginia .368 .089 .026 .005 .002 .000 7.3
Xavier .371 .089 .026 .007 .001 .000 7.2
Texas .299 .079 .020 .005 .002 .000 6.1
Colorado .296 .076 .019 .004 .001 .000 5.8
N.C. St. .299 .076 .020 .003 .001 .000 5.7
Colorado St. .298 .073 .019 .004 .001 .000 5.6
Long Beach St. .237 .063 .013 .002 .001 .000 4.4
VCU .223 .059 .012 .003 .000 .000 4.1
Harvard .229 .057 .012 .002 .000 .000 4.1
Montana .173 .047 .008 .002 .001 .000 3.3
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Davidson .177 .044 .008 .002 .000 .000 3.2
New Mexico St. .174 .046 .007 .001 .000 .000 3.1
Ohio .169 .040 .008 .002 .000 .000 3.0
South Dakota St. .126 .033 .006 .001 .000 .000 2.3
St. Bonaventure .130 .033 .006 .001 .000 .000 2.3
Belmont .134 .033 .005 .001 .000 .000 2.3
California .110 .026 .005 .002 .000 .000 2.0
South Florida .114 .026 .005 .001 .000 .000 2.0
Detroit .094 .023 .003 .001 .000 .000 1.6
Lehigh .096 .021 .004 .001 .000 .000 1.6
Loyola-Maryland .091 .021 .003 .001 .000 .000 1.5
Norfolk St. .090 .022 .003 .000 .000 .000 1.5
Iona .060 .015 .003 .001 .000 .000 1.1
Brigham Young .064 .016 .002 .000 .000 .000 1.1
UNC-Asheville .065 .015 .002 .000 .000 .000 1.0
LIU-Brooklyn .065 .014 .002 .000 .000 .000 1.0
Lamar .034 .007 .002 .000 .000 .000 0.5
MS Valley St. .035 .007 .001 .000 .000 .000 0.5
Vermont .033 .007 .001 .000 .000 .000 0.5
Western KY .033 .007 .001 .000 .000 .000 0.5
Arbitrage Opportunities
The key to success in any NCAA pool is to identify undervalued teams, and that often means finding schools the committee underrated on Selection Sunday. According to each rating metric, here were the teams whose expected Tournament Challenge points exceed their projected points based on seeding alone:
Team ExpPts KPom Mass SRS SR Sag Avg Diff
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ohio St. 95.1 197.6 183.0 210.9 209.9 212.0 202.7 107.6
Kentucky 128.0 199.3 207.1 214.8 214.7 193.2 205.8 77.8
Kansas 98.4 127.8 118.7 149.5 141.9 136.7 134.9 36.5
Michigan St. 129.3 146.9 174.7 136.7 152.5 140.7 150.3 21.0
Wisconsin 52.4 76.9 39.8 61.9 94.4 75.9 69.8 17.4
Memphis 13.9 35.3 25.1 24.1 23.5 25.8 26.8 12.9
California 2.0 14.6 6.0 15.1 17.5 15.6 13.8 11.8
Belmont 2.3 18.3 14.5 9.6 8.4 17.2 13.6 11.3
Texas 6.1 16.8 11.6 17.9 16.9 19.2 16.5 10.4
Missouri 95.7 94.9 131.7 106.9 84.4 100.7 103.7 8.0
Purdue 7.5 19.5 12.2 14.7 15.7 15.3 15.5 8.0
Kansas St. 13.2 21.9 20.9 20.0 20.1 20.9 20.8 7.6
N.C. St. 5.7 12.8 14.0 13.0 12.2 12.0 12.8 7.1
North Carolina 124.1 111.0 161.2 146.2 107.0 121.4 129.4 5.3
Virginia 7.3 14.0 7.9 8.6 18.5 12.8 12.4 5.1
Alabama 10.0 17.0 9.5 12.1 20.4 16.2 15.0 5.0
Team ExpPts KPom Mass SRS SR Sag Avg Diff
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brigham Young 1.1 4.8 3.1 6.1 6.9 6.3 5.4 4.3
Wichita St. 37.6 51.2 30.0 37.7 40.9 46.2 41.2 3.6
Florida 20.0 21.8 18.2 28.7 21.3 26.8 23.4 3.4
St. Bonaventure 2.3 7.9 5.4 3.9 4.6 5.8 5.5 3.2
South Dakota St. 2.3 8.1 5.5 3.2 4.5 6.2 5.5 3.2
Long Beach St. 4.4 9.1 8.9 5.5 5.7 8.8 7.6 3.2
Saint Louis 10.1 15.9 6.5 10.4 15.2 15.4 12.7 2.6
Ohio 3.0 6.5 6.0 4.1 4.4 6.1 5.4 2.4
Xavier 7.2 11.1 7.8 7.8 9.3 10.1 9.2 2.0
Lehigh 1.6 5.4 4.5 1.4 2.1 4.0 3.5 1.9
Iona 1.1 3.9 2.8 2.0 1.7 3.6 2.8 1.7
Harvard 4.1 7.6 5.5 3.2 4.4 6.4 5.4 1.3
Colorado St. 5.6 7.5 5.5 7.2 7.5 6.7 6.9 1.3
South Florida 2.0 3.2 5.5 2.3 3.2 2.2 3.3 1.3
Davidson 3.2 5.6 2.5 3.4 3.3 4.9 3.9 0.7
New Mexico St. 3.1 4.0 5.1 2.4 3.1 3.2 3.6 0.5
Team ExpPts KPom Mass SRS SR Sag Avg Diff
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
West Virginia 7.9 8.5 7.3 8.6 7.9 8.6 8.2 0.3
Lamar 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.2
VCU 4.1 4.8 6.0 2.3 3.7 3.8 4.1 0.0
UNC-Asheville 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.9 -0.1
Colorado 5.8 6.9 6.0 4.2 6.0 5.0 5.6 -0.2
Vermont 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 -0.2
Western KY 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.4
MS Valley St. 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5
Detroit 1.6 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.0 -0.6
LIU-Brooklyn 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.7
Loyola-Maryland 1.5 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 -1.0
Norfolk St. 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 -1.2
Montana 3.3 2.2 2.1 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.7 -1.6
Connecticut 9.9 8.0 9.1 7.4 8.3 8.4 8.2 -1.7
Creighton 13.9 12.3 14.0 11.6 9.8 13.2 12.2 -1.7
UNLV 25.5 21.8 16.5 25.8 24.5 26.5 23.0 -2.5
Team ExpPts KPom Mass SRS SR Sag Avg Diff
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Iowa St. 13.0 11.5 8.6 8.9 9.3 10.3 9.7 -3.3
Notre Dame 19.1 16.7 15.1 13.1 15.3 13.7 14.8 -4.3
So. Mississippi 10.3 4.8 4.1 3.2 3.7 4.4 4.0 -6.3
New Mexico 36.0 33.2 19.1 31.5 30.9 31.4 29.2 -6.8
Indiana 50.3 41.5 33.4 50.8 43.4 46.4 43.1 -7.2
Gonzaga 19.5 12.7 15.0 8.7 10.7 10.4 11.5 -8.0
Saint Mary's 18.7 8.7 13.4 6.7 7.8 9.1 9.1 -9.6
Vanderbilt 38.3 28.7 44.6 23.9 19.7 21.3 27.6 -10.7
Murray St. 26.3 15.3 19.2 9.6 11.4 13.9 13.9 -12.4
Cincinnati 26.5 14.6 16.7 11.4 11.8 10.9 13.1 -13.4
San Diego St. 26.7 9.9 9.5 7.9 9.4 8.6 9.1 -17.6
Louisville 50.9 25.8 44.3 28.7 35.6 27.1 32.3 -18.6
Baylor 71.9 52.2 59.7 48.1 48.3 50.5 51.8 -20.1
Temple 38.7 16.3 14.1 11.1 11.5 14.6 13.5 -25.2
Michigan 53.8 29.4 30.8 26.7 29.2 25.9 28.4 -25.4
Georgetown 70.9 40.3 31.5 34.5 45.5 37.0 37.8 -33.1
Marquette 72.6 38.3 30.5 44.5 42.1 38.7 38.8 -33.8
Syracuse 124.7 81.2 91.8 101.6 86.6 90.5 90.3 -34.4
Duke 99.8 45.3 58.2 69.9 59.0 61.0 58.7 -41.1
Florida St. 73.6 24.4 34.4 25.1 27.7 25.6 27.4 -46.2
The best value in the entire tournament is Ohio State--despite being a #2 seed, every rating system ranked the Buckeyes either first or second in the country. They also received a very favorable draw from the committee, sitting in a region with a relatively weak #1 seed (in spite of a gaudy 31-2 record, Syracuse was not even regarded as a top-5 team by any system but Massey’s), in a half-bracket with relatively non-threatening 3 and 6 seeds.
Other values include fellow 2-seed Kansas, a team considered superior to Midwest #1 North Carolina by four of the five rating systems; Memphis, an underrated 8-seed who could very well give Michigan State issues in the round of 32; and Texas, a tempting 11-seed in the Syracuse bracket (although pick a Rick Barnes team to overachieve at your peril). Even California, who needs to beat South Florida just to make the field of 64, could add value to your bracket--assuming they win the play-in game, they look like an easy 12-over-5 pick vs. Temple (the Bears rank in the mid-20s by most ratings; the Owls rank in the high 30s).
Of course, this method isn’t foolproof. Kentucky is considered a value pick here as well, since the “pure seeds” method gives the combatants an equal chance in any matchup between #1 seeds, but in reality your average pool opponent would likely choose Kentucky on name recognition and reputation alone. Still, it’s a nice way to mark down teams as overvalued (cough, FSU, Duke, Marquette, & Georgetown) or undervalued (watch out for Belmont as a potential 14-seed in the Sweet 16).
And the consensus most likely Final Four according to all of the rating systems? Kentucky, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Kansas, with UK & OSU advancing to the title game and the Wildcats winning it all. But don’t bet the farm just yet--even though they’re the favorites, Kentucky came out on top in just 19.4% of all simulations, proving that nothing is certain in a 68-team single-elimination basketball tournament.
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Neil Paine is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
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