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February 21, 2012
Tuesday Truths
Crunch-Time Edition

by John Gasaway

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Welcome to Tuesday Truths, where I look at how well 157 teams in the nation's top 14 conferences are doing against their league opponents on a per-possession basis. For a tidy little homily on why this stuff is so very awesome, go here.

ACC: How big does Rivers' shot look now?

Through games of February 20, conference games only
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession Opp. PPP: opponent PPP
EM: efficiency margin (PPP - Opp. PPP)

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  North Carolina   10-2   70.6    1.08    0.93    +0.15
2.  Duke             10-2   66.6    1.13    1.00    +0.13
3.  Florida St.      10-2   66.5    1.03    0.92    +0.09
4.  Virginia          7-5   59.7    0.99    0.90    +0.09
5.  Miami             7-5   64.7    1.03    0.98    +0.05
6.  NC State          7-5   68.0    1.02    0.98    +0.04
7.  Clemson           5-7   64.0    1.03    1.00    +0.03
8.  Maryland          5-7   68.1    0.98    1.04    -0.06
9.  Virginia Tech     4-8   61.9    0.96    1.03    -0.07
10. Georgia Tech     2-10   62.9    0.94    1.07    -0.13
11. Boston College   3-10   65.1    0.88    1.04    -0.16
12. Wake Forest      3-10   64.6    0.91    1.09    -0.18

AVG.                        65.2    1.00

If Austin Rivers' game-winner for Duke at North Carolina two weeks ago rims out, the Tar Heels are in sole possession of first place, two games up on the Blue Devils in the loss column, and one game up on Florida State. If that shot doesn't fall, Roy Williams' team is currently on a nine-game winning streak, and excitable feature writers are cranking out the "UNC-on-a-roll" boilerplate, wherein Roy's boys "needed" that dadgum whuppin' at Tallahassee in January to get their heads on straight. If that game-winner had been off-target, North Carolina is potentially being projected as a No. 1 seed right now. If Rivers misses that shot, excitable tempo-free banshees are cranking out the "UNC-on-a-roll" boilerplate, pointing out that it's late February and Carolina is displaying the same per-possession scoring margin that a certain pretty good 2009 edition of the same program recorded. Wait, I guess that last part really has happened even though Rivers' shot did go in. Spooky.

Big 12: I have a quibble with the Big 12's scheduler

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Kansas           12-2   66.6    1.11    0.92    +0.19
2.  Missouri         12-2   64.8    1.15    1.02    +0.13
3.  Iowa St.          9-5   67.1    1.06    0.99    +0.07
4.  Baylor           10-5   65.8    1.09    1.03    +0.06
5.  Kansas St.        7-7   66.5    0.99    0.96    +0.03
6.  Texas             7-8   65.6    1.06    1.04    +0.02
7.  Oklahoma St.      6-8   66.6    1.02    1.08    -0.06
8.  Texas A&M        4-10   62.2    0.93    1.02    -0.09
9.  Oklahoma         3-11   66.0    0.96    1.10    -0.14
10. Texas Tech       1-13   63.9    0.83    1.07    -0.24

AVG.                        65.5    1.02

Missouri will play at Kansas on Saturday, and I really, really wish that game were the regular-season finale for both teams. It very likely could decide the Big 12 championship. It very likely could influence whether one or both teams receive No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament. There is the small matter of the somewhat lively rivalry between the two schools. And, of course, after this season the Tigers are fleeing the league for the warm football-rich embrace of the SEC. Depending on the bounces in the Big 12 tournament, it's conceivable this could be the last game between the two schools for a while. As it is Saturday's game won't exactly be lacking for drama or attention, goodness knows. And how could the Big 12 have known in advance that this would be the one year when Texas would not be playing their traditional Most Likely to Challenge KU role? (The Jayhawks close the season with a visit from the Longhorns.) Just saying. Would have been one epic Senior Night in Lawrence.

Big East: It's late February and I'm writing about South Florida's tournament prospects

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Syracuse         14-1   65.1    1.12    0.95    +0.17
2.  Marquette        11-3   69.1    1.09    0.99    +0.10
3.  Georgetown       10-4   63.3    1.02    0.93    +0.09
4.  Notre Dame       11-3   59.6    1.05    0.97    +0.08
5.  Louisville        9-5   67.7    1.02    0.96    +0.06
6.  Cincinnati        9-5   65.0    1.05    1.00    +0.05
7.  West Virginia     7-7   63.3    1.08    1.04    +0.04
8.  S. Florida       10-4   60.3    1.01    0.97    +0.04
9.  Seton Hall        7-8   66.7    0.96    0.95    +0.01
10. Connecticut       7-8   63.8    1.00    1.00     0.00
11. Villanova        4-11   69.8    1.01    1.07    -0.06
12. Pitt             4-11   63.8    0.99    1.06    -0.07
13. Rutgers          4-10   65.3    0.94    1.02    -0.08
14. Providence       2-13   64.8    1.03    1.13    -0.10
15. St. John's       5-10   68.2    0.97    1.09    -0.12
16. DePaul           2-13   72.3    0.97    1.13    -0.16

AVG.                        65.5    1.02

Did not see this one coming, but let's get to it: USF is 10-4, with road games still to play at Syracuse and Louisville, and home games against Cincinnati and West Virginia. Don't be skeptical of the Bulls' performance just because they've played the weakest conference schedule of any Big East team. Be skeptical of the Bulls' performance because they've outscored that schedule by just 0.04 points per trip. Their upcoming four games represent far and away the toughest portion of the slate for Stan Heath's team. That being said, the fact remains it really is late February and I really am discussing USF's tournament prospects. This team is better than expected, particularly its D. If they learn to hold on to the ball more than 76.8 percent of the time, who knows?

Big Ten: Illinois' collapse makes Ohio State's look like a surge

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Ohio St.         10-4   65.5    1.09    0.90    +0.19
2.  Michigan St.     11-3   62.7    1.10    0.91    +0.19
3.  Michigan         10-4   58.9    1.05    0.99    +0.06
4.  Wisconsin         9-5   57.6    1.02    0.98    +0.04
5.  Indiana           8-7   65.6    1.10    1.09    +0.01
6.  Minnesota         5-9   63.2    1.01    1.04    -0.03
7.  Purdue            7-7   64.1    1.07    1.10    -0.03
8.  Northwestern      6-8   61.6    1.08    1.11    -0.03
9.  Illinois          5-9   63.3    0.97    1.04    -0.07
10. Iowa              6-8   66.4    1.04    1.11    -0.07
11. Penn St.         4-11   62.6    0.96    1.08    -0.12
12. Nebraska         4-10   62.2    0.93    1.07    -0.14

AVG.                        62.8    1.04

During last week's mock selection exercise in Indianapolis, I listened to devotees of the "good win" school tout Illinois' worthiness for a bid on the grounds that they did, after all, beat Gonzaga, Ohio State, and Michigan State. This Illini graduate recused himself from the discussion while fretting privately: Great, now they'll probably lose by 23 at Nebraska, and I'll bet you anything Meyers Leonard will weep openly on the bench. Devotees of the "good win" school, this is clearly your fault! BONUS "denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance" note! Over their last nine games Bruce Weber's men have been the functional equivalent of Penn State, coming up 0.11 points short for every possession played. Did I mention how fun it truly is to be an Illinois fan right now? On a completely unrelated topic, I've left instructions with loved ones that I wish to come back in my next life as Ashley Judd.

Pac-12: The good news for Cal and Washington is they're in first place...

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Cal              12-3   67.0    1.10    0.94    +0.16
2.  Arizona          10-5   64.7    1.06    0.94    +0.12
3.  Colorado         10-4   66.4    1.01    0.91    +0.10
4.  UCLA              8-6   65.2    1.06    0.98    +0.08
5.  Washington       12-3   68.9    1.04    0.97    +0.07
6.  Oregon           10-5   67.0    1.08    1.03    +0.05
7.  Stanford          8-7   65.7    0.99    0.99     0.00
8.  Washington St.    6-9   64.0    1.08    1.10    -0.02
9.  Oregon St.       5-10   70.3    1.05    1.09    -0.04
10. Arizona St.      4-11   61.8    0.91    1.07    -0.16
11. USC              1-13   62.3    0.82    1.01    -0.19
12. Utah             2-12   61.3    0.87    1.06    -0.19

AVG.                        65.4    1.01

The bad news for the Bears and the Huskies is that each of them celebrated history's earliest major-conference Senior Nights on Saturday, because those were their last home games of the year. The advantage here figures to rest with Mike Montgomery's group. First, they're clearly the better team. (Always an important factor.) Second, Cal's road odyssey (at Utah, Colorado, and Stanford) looks to be a hair less daunting than UW's (at Washington State, USC, and UCLA).

SEC: Kentucky's amazing, incredible, stupendous year quantified, part XLIV

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Kentucky         12-0   62.3    1.18    0.92    +0.26
2.  Vanderbilt        8-4   63.7    1.11    0.98    +0.13
3.  Florida           9-3   63.3    1.12    1.01    +0.11
4.  Alabama           6-6   63.2    0.98    0.94    +0.04
5.  Tennessee         6-6   63.6    0.96    0.95    +0.01
6.  Mississippi St.   6-6   63.7    1.06    1.08    -0.02
7.  LSU               6-6   65.1    0.98    1.00    -0.02
8.  Ole Miss          5-7   64.1    0.98    1.05    -0.07
9.  Auburn            3-8   62.7    0.90    0.98    -0.08
10. Georgia           3-9   60.5    0.96    1.04    -0.08
11. Arkansas          5-7   69.3    0.99    1.08    -0.09
12. South Carolina   2-10   62.4    0.95    1.12    -0.17

AVG.                        63.7    1.01

Outscoring your major conference by a quarter of a point per trip is just sick. In recent years the standard here was set by the Kansas team that went on to win the national championship in 2008. The Jayhawks outscored that year's Big 12 by 0.24 points per possession. So, yes, UK is pretty good at basketball. For instance their offense in-conference has been exactly two standard deviations better than the league average. (Cough, cough, unheard of!, cough.) Should I keep going? Fine. In two-point shooting, three-point shooting, turnover percentage, offensive rebound percentage, and free-throw rate in SEC play, the Wildcats rank first, second, first, second, and second, respectively. When was the last time we saw an offense this potent all the way across the categorical board? Chris Paul-era Wake Forest comes to mind, certainly. Anyway, for an offense to be this good is improbable. And for the same players to then turn around and play by far their league's best defense is simply unfair. Life is ridiculously good in Lexington.

A-10: Has the league sorted itself out at last?

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Temple           10-2   66.7    1.15    1.01    +0.14
2.  Saint Louis      10-3   64.5    1.05    0.91    +0.14
3.  St. Bonaventure   7-5   65.9    1.05    0.98    +0.07
4.  Xavier            8-4   67.9    1.06    1.01    +0.05
5.  La Salle          7-5   67.9    1.06    1.01    +0.05
6.  UMass             7-5   74.3    1.00    0.97    +0.03
7.  Saint Joseph's    8-5   66.1    1.03    1.01    +0.02
8.  Dayton            6-6   66.4    1.10    1.10     0.00
9.  Richmond          5-8   65.0    1.04    1.05    -0.01
10. Duquesne          6-6   67.3    1.00    1.04    -0.04
11. Charlotte         4-8   69.3    0.94    1.00    -0.06
12. GW                4-8   64.0    1.02    1.08    -0.06
13. Rhode Island     2-11   67.6    0.97    1.10    -0.13
14. Fordham          2-10   65.2    0.94    1.15    -0.21

AVG.                        67.1    1.03

This is shaping up as a two-team race, both in the standings and in the Truths, though it should be noted that sentimental favorite Xavier still possesses some real lurk value. Saint Louis is a game back in the loss column, but Temple plays three of their last four on the road: at LaSalle tomorrow night, at Saint Joe's on Saturday, and at Fordham next Saturday to close out the regular season. Meanwhile the Billikens are scheduled to visit Rhode Island and Duquesne, and SLU will also host Xavier. BONUS Temple fun fact! Fran Dunphy's team, 21-5 overall, is 12-1 with Michael Eric in the lineup.

Colonial: Heading down to the wire (already)

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Drexel           14-2   60.0    1.07    0.91    +0.16
2.  Old Dominion     12-4   64.6    1.01    0.86    +0.15
3.  VCU              13-3   64.7    1.02    0.88    +0.14
4.  George Mason     14-2   67.2    1.02    0.92    +0.10
5.  Georgia St.      10-6   64.0    0.96    0.87    +0.09
6.  Delaware         10-6   66.1    1.01    0.98    +0.03
7.  Northeastern      8-8   61.5    0.97    0.99    -0.02
8.  James Madison    4-12   65.3    0.98    1.05    -0.07
9.  Hofstra          2-14   64.8    0.93    1.02    -0.09
10. UNC-Wilmington   5-11   66.8    0.97    1.07    -0.10
11. William & Mary   3-13   61.9    0.95    1.07    -0.12
12. Towson           1-15   61.3    0.78    1.07    -0.29

AVG.                        64.0    0.97

The Colonial had a nice BracketBusters weekend, going 7-5 against the rest of mid-majordom and getting a particularly nifty win out of Old Dominion. The Monarchs traveled to distant inscrutable Springfield, Missouri, and came away with a 73-67 win. In other news Drexel absolutely hammered Cleveland State 69-49 in less distant yet equally inscrutable Cleveland, but the way the Vikings have been struggling of late it's tough to know how enthused we should get about that one. Note that ODU and the Dragons will meet in Norfolk on Saturday in what will be the regular-season finale for both teams.

C-USA: Tarik Black, I salute you!

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Memphis           9-3   64.5    1.11    0.92    +0.19
2.  Tulsa             9-4   62.2    1.04    0.94    +0.10
3.  UCF               8-4   62.5    1.05    0.99    +0.06
4.  Southern Miss     9-3   64.3    1.07    1.02    +0.05
5.  Marshall          7-5   63.7    1.04    1.01    +0.03
6.  UTEP              6-6   62.6    0.99    0.97    +0.02
7.  UAB               7-6   60.5    0.99    0.99     0.00
8.  Rice              6-6   65.8    0.93    0.98    -0.05
9.  Tulane            3-9   63.9    0.96    1.02    -0.06
10. East Carolina     3-9   64.4    1.03    1.09    -0.06
11. SMU              2-10   59.4    0.91    1.03    -0.12
12. Houston           4-8   65.7    0.96    1.12    -0.16

AVG.                        63.3    1.01

Memphis lost at home to UTEP by the score of 60-58 on Saturday, a game in which the Miners took their first lead with 1:19 to play. The loss negated what should have been a city-wide celebration of Tarik Black's effort. Black needed just 26 minutes to record a 26-10 double-double on 10-of-13 shooting. Josh Pastner still has the best team in the league, but losing at home to mediocre opponents in late February is not the preferred method for dazzling the selection committee.

Horizon: Why nine other teams might want Valpo to win the regular season

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Cleveland St.    10-5   62.5    1.07    0.94    +0.13
2.  Detroit          10-6   64.9    1.06    1.00    +0.06
3.  Valparaiso       12-4   63.3    1.05    1.00    +0.05
4.  Youngstown St.    9-7   63.1    1.04    1.01    +0.03
5.  Butler           10-6   64.2    0.95    0.93    +0.02
6.  Milwaukee         9-7   64.6    0.97    0.96    +0.01
7.  Wright St.        7-9   61.1    0.94    0.94     0.00
8.  Green Bay         7-8   65.6    1.02    1.03    -0.01
9.  UIC              3-12   62.0    0.97    1.08    -0.11
10. Loyola           1-14   59.0    0.89    1.08    -0.19

AVG.                        63.0    0.99

Behold, this is what it looks like when the standings break free of per-possession performance. As Cleveland State falls back to the pack (rapidly), we find Valparaiso a game up in the loss column on the rest of the conference, even though the Crusaders have merely the league's third-best offense and its No. 5 defense. Valpo's perch atop the standings could end up being good news for the rest of the league. In the Horizon tournament, the regular-season Nos. 1 and 2 get waved through all the way to the semis, with No. 1 hosting all games starting with the quarters. If the Crusaders are the host they might be an unusually vulnerable opponent for visiting teams fighting for the Horizon's single NCAA bid. Keep an eye on this.

Missouri Valley: Antoine Young, I salute you!

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Wichita St.      14-2   65.0    1.16    0.96    +0.20
2.  Creighton        12-4   65.4    1.16    1.04    +0.12
3.  Missouri St.      9-7   62.1    1.04    1.00    +0.04
4.  Evansville        8-8   66.0    1.08    1.04    +0.04
5.  N. Iowa           7-9   62.5    1.02    1.02     0.00
6.  Illinois St.      8-8   64.4    1.06    1.07    -0.01
7.  Drake             8-8   65.5    0.99    1.00    -0.01
8.  Indiana St.       7-9   64.8    1.00    1.06    -0.06
9.  S. Illinois      5-11   65.0    0.98    1.09    -0.11
10. Bradley          2-14   68.0    0.90    1.11    -0.21

AVG.                        64.9    1.04

The Valley recorded a fairly mediocre collective effort in BracketBusters, going 4-6 against the rest of the mid-major world. The highlight was a thrilling game between Creighton and Long Beach State in Omaha, a contest the Bluejays pulled out 81-79 thanks to Antoine Young's game-winner in the final second. The lowlight was most certainly Bradley losing on their home court to a Loyola team that currently sits at 1-14 in the Horizon. Meanwhile, Wichita State was very Wichita State-esque, traveling to Davidson and winning 91-74. In conference play the Shockers' defense is precisely as good statistically as Bradley's offense is bad. And Gregg Marshall's offense is virtually as good as his D. This could be the best team the Valley has seen since the glory days of five or six seasons ago. BONUS trivia! When was the last time you saw the court stormed after the home team has won a game against a Big West opponent? Suddenly formidable 49ers of Long Beach, I salute you!

Mountain West: The Lobos have had help looking this good

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  New Mexico        8-2   64.4    1.08    0.88    +0.20
2.  UNLV              6-4   68.0    1.06    1.00    +0.06
3.  San Diego St.     6-4   65.3    0.98    0.96    +0.02
4.  Wyoming           4-6   59.3    0.96    0.97    -0.01
5.  Colorado St.      5-5   64.5    1.01    1.03    -0.02
6.  TCU               5-5   66.1    1.03    1.08    -0.05
7.  Boise St.         3-7   64.2    0.94    1.02    -0.08
8.  Air Force         3-7   62.2    0.89    1.00    -0.11

AVG.                        64.3    0.99

New Mexico had an amazing week, winning by 10 at San Diego State, and then destroying UNLV in Albuquerque by the score of 65-45. Certainly I owe Steve Alford's team a big thank-you for making Tuesday Truths look so good. (They did that in 2010, too. Har!) At the same time keep in mind you can't lap the field like this -- at the moment there's more per-possession space between UNM and the Mountain West's second-place team than there is between Kentucky and Vanderbilt -- without some help. And the Runnin' Rebels and the Aztecs have been a big help in framing New Mexico as clearly the MWC's best team. UNLV lost in OT at TCU last week, and SDSU went to Air Force this weekend and lost a two-point game. Nevertheless we're still seeing both the Rebels and the Aztecs projected as receiving seeds in the 5 to 7 range -- as are the Lobos. Don't be fooled. Among these three teams with similar projected seeds, one is highly dissimilar from the other two.

West Coast: The Gaels' collapse

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Gonzaga          11-3   66.8    1.10    0.93    +0.17
2.  Saint Mary's     12-2   65.3    1.18    1.02    +0.16
3.  BYU              11-3   73.9    1.09    0.94    +0.15
4.  Loyola Marymount 10-4   67.3    1.05    0.99    +0.06
5.  San Francisco     8-7   71.5    1.07    1.04    +0.03
6.  San Diego         6-8   67.5    1.02    1.08    -0.06
7.  Portland         3-11   67.9    0.96    1.10    -0.14
8.  Pepperdine       3-12   63.3    0.91    1.09    -0.18
9.  Santa Clara      0-14   69.1    0.99    1.18    -0.19

AVG.                        68.1    1.04

Saint Mary's sprinted out to an 11-0 start in WCC play, but in their last three conference games Randy Bennett's team has allowed conference opponents to score 1.14 points per trip. (To add insult to injury the Gaels then went to Murray, Kentucky, for BracketBusters, and came up on the wrong end of a 65-51 score in a 56-possession game.) Even Santa Clara recorded a halfway decent offensive effort (1.05 points per possession), albeit in a losing cause at SMC. Gonzaga's incredible streak of regular-season West Coast titles won or shared isn't done yet.

WAC: In this league you can take a night off -- in fact you can take the whole week!

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Nevada           10-1   64.0    1.14    1.01    +0.13
2.  New Mexico St.    7-3   69.2    1.08    0.98    +0.10
3.  Hawaii            6-4   69.1    1.08    1.06    +0.02
4.  Utah St.          5-6   62.2    1.08    1.06    +0.02
5.  Idaho             7-4   63.2    1.05    1.07    -0.02
6.  Fresno St.        3-8   60.6    1.00    1.05    -0.05
7.  Louisiana Tech    3-7   67.9    1.01    1.07    -0.06
8.  San Jose St.      1-9   64.5    1.03    1.17    -0.14

AVG.                        65.1    1.06

No WAC games have been played in the last seven days, and indeed the longest in-season silence in the history of Tuesday Truths will stretch all the way to Thursday night at 8 Eastern, when San Jose State and Louisiana Tech will at long last haul themselves off their respective couches and engage in the activity known as "basket ball." Serene and contemplative WAC, I salute you! You remind me of a roommate I had in college. On one occasion he exhibited perceptible bodily movement for the first time in days just as my girlfriend was about to set a drink on him.

John uses fewer decimal points on Twitter: @JohnGasaway. This free article is an example of the content available to Basketball Prospectus Premium subscribers. See our Premium page for more details and to subscribe..

John Gasaway is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact John by clicking here or click here to see John's other articles.

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